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- You are considering a $500,000 investment in the fast-food industry and have narrowed your choice to either a McDonald’s or a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise. McDonald’s indicates that, based on the location where you are proposing to open a new restaurant, there is a 25 percent probability that aggregate 10-year profits (net of the initial investment) will be $16 million, a 50 percent probability that profits will be $8 million, and a 25 percent probability that profits will be −$1.6 million. The aggregate 10-year profit projections (net of the initial investment) for a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise is $48 million with a 2.5 percent probability, $8 million with a 95 percent probability, and −$48 million with a 2.5 percent probability. Considering both the risk and expected profitability of these two investment opportunities, which is the better investment? Explain carefully.Please no written by hand solution Kate recently invested in real estate with the intention of selling the property one year from today. She has modeled the returns on that investment based on three economic scenarios. She believes that if the economy stays healthy, then her investment will generate a 30 percent return. However, if the economy softens, as predicted, the return will be 10 percent, while the return will be -25 percent if the economy slips into a recession. If the probabilities of the healthy, soft, and recessionary states are 0.6, 0.2, and 0.2, respectively, then what are the expected return and the standard deviation of the return on Kate❝s investment? Calculate the coefficient of variation for this investment. (Round expected return to 3 decimal places, e.g. 0.125 and round intermediate calculations and standard deviation to 5 decimal places, e.g. 0.07680.)You live in an area that has a possibility of incurring a massive earthquake, so you are considering buyingearthquake insurance on your home at an annual cost of $180. The probability of an earthquake damagingyour home during one year is 0.001. If this happens, you estimate that the cost of the damage (fully coveredby earthquake insurance) will be $160,000. Your total assets (including your home) are worth $250,000.
- You live in an area where there is a possibility of a massive earthquake, so consider purchasing earthquake insurance for your home at an annual cost of $180. The probability of an earthquake damaging your home in the course of a year is 0.001. If this occurs, you estimate that the cost of the damage (fully covered by insurance) will be $160,000. Your total assets (including the house) are worth $250,000. a) Apply the maximum expected value decision rule to determine the alternative (to buy insurance or not) that maximizes the value of your assets after one year. b) You developed a utility function that measures the value of your assets in x dollars (x ≥ 0). This utility function is U(x) = √x. Compare the utility of reducing the total of your assets for the next year by a value equal to the value of the insurance, with the expected utility next year of not purchasing tremor insurance. Should you purchase the insurance?A manager has to decide whether to prepare a bid or not. It costs P5,000 to prepare the bid. If the bid is submitted, the probability that the contract will be awarded is 50%. If the company is awarded the contract, it may earn an income of P100,000 if it succeeds, or pay a fine of P8,000 if it fails. The probability of success is estimated to be 80%. What is the expected value if the contract is awarded?Suppose an investor is concerned about a business choice in which there are three projects, the probability and returns are given below. Probability Return 0.4 $100 0.4 40 The expected value of the uncertain investment is $ ----------- (round off to the nearest dollar.
- I am in possession of two coins. One is fair so that it lands heads (H) and tails (T) with equal probability while the other coin is weighted so that it always lands H. Both coins are magical: if either is flipped and lands H then a $1 bill appears in your wallet, but when it lands T nothing happens. You may only flip a coin once per period. The interest rate is i per period. You are risk-neutral and thus only concern yourself with expected values (and not variance). For simplicity, in the questions below assume you will live forever. Suppose now that I also do not know which coin is fair and which is weighted. You pick one of the two coins at random. (a) What is your willingness to pay for this coin? (b) What is your willingness to pay for an option* to purchase the coin, where the option works as follows: you may flip the coin once and observe the outcome. Then, if you wish, you may purchase the coin from me for the amount you determined in part 4(a). *The owner of an option has…I am in possession of two coins. One is fair so that it lands heads (H) and tails (T) with equal probability while the other coin is weighted so that it always lands H. Both coins are magical: if either is flipped and lands H then a $1 bill appears in your wallet, but when it lands T nothing happens. You may only flip a coin once per period. The interest rate is i per period. You are risk-neutral and thus only concern yourself with expected values (and not variance). For simplicity, in the questions below assume you will live forever. 1. How much are you willing to pay for such a coin that you know is fair? 2. How much are you willing to pay for such a coin that you know is weighted? 3. I currently own the coins and know which is fair and which is weighted, but you cannot tell which is which. You may make an offer to purchase a coin of your choosing, which I am free to accept or reject. What is the most you are willing to offer? Explain how you arrived at this answer. 4. Suppose now…A drug company is considering investing $100 million today to bring a weight loss pill to the market. At the end of one year, the firm will know the payoff; there is a 0.50 probability that the pill will sell at a high price and generate $37 million per year of profit forever and a 0.50 probability that the pill will sell at a low price and generate $I million per year of profit forever. The interest rate is 10%. Suppose the firm decides to wait one year to determine whether the pill will sell at a high or low price. The firm will not invest if it learns that the pill will sell at a low price. What is the net present value of waiting one year to make the investment?O $88 millionO$122.72 millionO $201.22 millionO $64.5 million
- The owner of a ski resort is considering installing a new ski lift that will cost $900,000. Expenses for operating andmaintaining the lift are estimated to be $1,500 per day when operating. The U.S. Weather Service estimates thatthere is a 60% probability of 80 days of skiing weather per year, a 30% probability of 100 days per year, and a 10% probability of 120 days per year. The operators of the resort estimate that during the first 80 days of adequate snow in a season, an average of 500 people will use the lift each day, at a fee of $10 each. If 20 additional days are available, the lift will be used by only 400 people per day during the extra period; and if 20 more days of skiing are available, only 300 people per day will use the lift during those days. The owners wish to recover any invested capital within five years and want at least a 25% per year rate of return before taxes. Based on a before-tax analysis, should the lift be installed?The probabilities that the life of a machine will vary from 6 to 12 years are given in the table below. The expected life of the machine is ____________. Life , Years 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Probability 0.10 0.15 0.25 0.15 0.20 0.10 0.05Thelma is indifferent between $100 and a bet with a 0.6 chance of no return and a 0.4 chance of $200. If U(0) = 20 and U(200) = 220, then U(100) = :
