Sales for the past five months have been 15, 18, 12, 17, 13.Use the following methods to obtain a forecast of sales for the next month.a. The last-value methodb. The averaging methodc. The moving-average method with three months.

The last-value method is one of the simplest forecasting techniques. It involves taking the sales…

Answered: Sales for the past five months have…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 42P: The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars)...

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?
The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?
Sales for the past five months have been 15, 18, 12, 17, 13.Use the following methods to obtain a forecast of sales for the next month.a. The last-value methodb. The averaging methodc. The moving –average method with three months.
Amazon finds that sales in July are much greater relative to other months because of the Amazon Prime days in that month. Assuming that an exponential smoothing model is used for forecasting sales, what should the company best do to make the forecast for the next month (Aug) more reflective of reality? Please pick from the provided options. F t+1 = αDt + (1-α) Ft increase value of alpha decrease value of alpha stay with the same alpha decrease the expected forecast for the current month (Ft) On hearing our forecast, our clients probe - how sure are we about the forecast? Which measure of errror (among those stated below) should we best use to respond? a. Root MSE (RMSE) b. Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) c. Mean forecast error (Avg. error) d. Cumulative forecast error (CFE)
9) Gasoline sales Times Series week sales (1000s of gallons 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 6 16 7 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 22 With the above gasoline time series data, show the exponential smoothing forecast using alpha = 0.1 i)Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of Alpha= 0.1 or alpha=0.2 for the gasoline sales time series? ii)Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy? iii)What are the results if MAPE is used?
Please help with the correct answers in details: Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 12 17 10 18 15 Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) mean absolute error MAE = (b) mean squared error MSE = (c) mean absolute percentage error (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MAPE = % (d) What is the forecast for week 7?
Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 3 4 5 6 Value 19 14 15 12 18 13 Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) mean absolute error MAE = (b) mean squared error MSE = (c) mean absolute percentage error (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MAPE = % (d) What is the forecast for week 7?
b) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.30 to forecast the sales. Assume that last period’s forecast for month 1 is equal to actual to begin the procedure. b. Which method do you think is best? Is this an improvement over the weighted average- use MAD only ?
The Yummy Ice Cream Company uses the exponential smoothing method. Last week the forecast was 100,000 gallons of ice cream, and 90,000 gallons was actually sold.a. Using α = .1, prepare a forecast for next week.b. Calculate the forecast using α = .2 and α = .3. Which value of α gives the best forecast, assuming actual demand is 95,000 gallons?
PLEASE CHOOSE ONE ANSWER AND CLARIFY THE CHOICE A quantitative forecasting class assumes that sales (or other items to be forecast) follow a repetitive pattern over time. When a retailer uses daily sales of each product to identify patterns and to forecast inventory requirements, this is an example of: A::a deterministic model B::a causal model C::a time series forecasting technique D::a qualitative model “A” items are high-dollar value items which represent a small portion (usually 10-20 percent) of requisitions, purchase orders, and inventory items, but a large portion of annual spend (usually 70-80 percent). “A” items in ABC analysis are: A::reviewed infrequently B::normally carried in large quantities C::stored in a relatively insecure warehouse D::particularly critical in financial terms Decoupling inventories are carried __________________________________. The amounts and locations of raw material, work-in-process, and finished goods decoupling inventories depend on…

SEE MORE QUESTIONS

Recommended textbooks for you

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

Contemporary Marketing

Marketing

ISBN:

9780357033777

Author:

Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz

Publisher:

Cengage Learning

Marketing

ISBN:

9780357033791

Author:

Pride, William M

Publisher:

South Western Educational Publishing

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

Contemporary Marketing

Marketing

ISBN:

9780357033777

Author:

Louis E. Boone, David L. Kurtz

Publisher:

Cengage Learning

Marketing

ISBN:

9780357033791

Author:

Pride, William M

Publisher:

South Western Educational Publishing

SEE MORE TEXTBOOKS

Sales for the past five months have been 15, 18, 12, 17, 13. Use the following methods to obtain a forecast of sales for the next month. a. The last-value method b. The averaging method c. The moving -average method with three months.