Sloan Transmissions, Inc., has the following estimates for its new gear assembly project: price = $2,500 per unit; variable costs = $500 per unit; fixed costs = $5.1 million; quantity = 80,000 units. Suppose the company believes all of its estimates are accurate only to within ±15 percent. What values should the company use for the four variables given here when it performs its best-case scenario analysis? What about the worst-case scenario? Scenario Units Sales Unit Price Unit Variable cost Fixed Costs Base Best Worst

Sloan Transmissions, Inc., has the following estimates for its new gear assembly project: price = $2,500 per unit; variable costs = $500 per unit; fixed costs = $5.1 million; quantity = 80,000 units. Suppose the company believes all of its estimates are accurate only to within ±15 percent. What values should the company use for the four variables given here when it performs its best-case scenario analysis? What about the worst-case scenario? Scenario Units Sales Unit Price Unit Variable cost Fixed Costs Base Best Worst

Name: 12-11 Sloan Transmissions, Inc., has the following estimates for its n
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Description: 12-11 Sloan Transmissions, Inc., has the following estimates for its new gearassembly project: price = $2,500 per unit; variable costs = $500 per unit; fixedcosts = $5.1 million; quantity = 80,000 units. Suppose the company believes allof its estimat

Essentials of Business Analytics (MindTap Course List)

2nd Edition

ISBN:9781305627734

Author:Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran, Michael J. Fry, Jeffrey W. Ohlmann, David R. Anderson

Publisher:Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran, Michael J. Fry, Jeffrey W. Ohlmann, David R. Anderson

Chapter5: Probability: An Introduction To Modeling Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 29P: The Siler Construction Company is about to bid on a new industrial construction project. To...

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The J.R. Ryland Computer Company is considering a plant expansion to enable the company to begin production of a new computer product. The companys president must determine whether to make the expansion a medium- or large-scale project. Demand for the new product is uncertain, which for planning purposes may be low demand, medium demand, or high demand. The probability estimates for demand are 0.20, 0.50, and 0.30, respectively. Letting x and y indicate the annual profit in thousands of dollars, the firms planners developed the following profit forecasts for the medium-and large-scale expansion projects. a. Compute the expected value for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of maximizing the expected profit? b. Compute the variance for the profit associated with the two expansion alternatives. Which decision is preferred for the objective of minimizing the risk or uncertainty?
The Siler Construction Company is about to bid on a new industrial construction project. To formulate their bid, the company needs to estimate the time required for the project. Based on past experience, management expects that the project will require at least 24 months, and could take as long as 48 months if there are complications. The most likely scenario is that the project will require 30 months. a. Assume that the actual time for the project can be approximated using a triangular probability distribution. What is the probability that the project will take less than 30 months? b. What is the probability that the project will take between 28 and 32 months? c. To submit a competitive bid, the company believes that if the project takes more than 36 months, then the company will lose money on the project. Management does not want to bid on the project if there is greater than a 25% chance that they will lose money on this project. Should the company bid on this project?
Hemmingway, Inc. is considering a $5 million research and development (R&D) project. Profit projections appear promising, but Hemmingway’s president is concerned because the probability that the R&D project will be successful is only 0.50. Furthermore, the president knows that even if the project is successful, it will require that the company build a new production facility at a cost of $20 million in order to manufacture the product. If the facility is built, uncertainty remains about the demand and thus uncertainty about the profit that will be realized. Another option is that if the R&D project is successful, the company could sell the rights to the product for an estimated $25 million. Under this option, the company would not build the $20 million production facility. The decision tree follows. The profit projection for each outcome is shown at the end of the branches. For example, the revenue projection for the high demand outcome is $59 million. However, the cost of the R&D project ($5 million) and the cost of the production facility ($20 million) show the profit of this outcome to be $59 – $5 – $20 = $34 million. Branch probabilities are also shown for the chance events. Analyze the decision tree to determine whether the company should undertake the R&D project. If it does, and if the R&D project is successful, what should the company do? What is the expected value of your strategy? What must the selling price be for the company to consider selling the rights to the product? Develop a risk profile for the optimal strategy.
Jeweled Outlook is analyzing a proposed project with expected sales of 9,200 units, ±4 percent. The expected variable cost per unit is $26 and the expected fixed costs are $49,000. Cost estimates are considered accurate within a range of ±5 percent. The depreciation expense is $18,300. The sale price is estimated at $52 a unit, ±3 percent. If the company conducts a sensitivity analysis using a variable cost of $27, what will be the total variable cost estimate?
Huang Industries is considering a proposed project whose estimatedNPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that economic conditions will be “average.”However, the CFO realizes that conditions could be better or worse, so she performed ascenario analysis and obtained these results: Calculate the project’s expected NPV, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation.
Your boss wants you to conduct a sensitivity and scenario analysis to determine whether the following project is a winner. You are entering an established market, and you know the market size will be 1,100,000 units. You are unsure of your exact market share, the price you will be able to charge, and your variable cost per unit, but have determined a range of possible values for each (in the table below). Your initial investment cost is $150 million, and that investment will depreciate in straight-line form over the 20-year life of the project. There are no new NWC requirements, and there will be no salvage value at the end of the 20 years. The tax rate is 35%. The discount rate is 18%. a) Use the following table to conduct a full sensitivity analysis for the project. Make sure to include the NPV for the expected outcome as part of the full sensitivity analysis. Also add the best- and worst-case scenarios to the full sensitivity analysis. Show all of your work (written out, not an…
Appalachian Crafts is analyzing a project with expected sales of 18,900 units, ±2 percent. The expected variable cost per unit is $23 and the expected fixed costs are $52,000. Cost estimates are considered accurate within a range of ±1 percent. The depreciation expense is $18,400. The sale price is estimated at $54 a unit, ±2 percent. What is the total dollar difference between the revenue using the optimistic sale price versus the expected sale price?
Waste Management Inc. is analyzing an average-risk project, and the following data have been developed. Unit sales will be constant, but the sales price will increase with inflation. Fixed costs will also be constant, but variable costs will rise with inflation. The project should last for 3 years, and there will be no salvage value. This is just one project for the firm, so any losses can be used to offset gains on other firm projects. What is the project's expected NPV? IRR? Would you accept this project? WACC 9.50% Net investment cost (depreciable basis) $100,000 Units sold 40,000 Average price per unit, Year 1 $25.00 Fixed op. cost excl. depr'n (constant) $150,000 Variable op. cost/unit, Year 1 $20.20 Annual depreciation rate 33.33% Expected inflation 5.00% Tax rate 40.0% Please show work.
A manufacturing firm is considering two mutually exclusive projects. Both projects have an economic service life of one year with no salvage value. The first cost or Project 1 is $1,000, and the first cost or Project 2 is $800. The net year-end revenue for each project is given as follows: Assume that both projects are statistically independent or each other.(a) If you make decisions by maximizing the expected NPW, which projectwould you select?(b) If you also consider the variance of the projects, which project would youselect?
Chadron Motors is reviewing a project with sales of 6,200 units, ±2 percent, at a sales price of $29, ±1 percent, per unit. The expected variable cost per unit is $11, ±3 percent, and the expected fixed costs are $85,578, ±1 percent. The depreciation expense is $68,000 and the tax rate is 21 percent. What is the net income under the worst-case scenario? A. $4,696 B. –$28,704 C. $15,846 D. −$39,713 E. −$38,578
Huang Industries is considering a proposed project whose estimated NPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that economic conditions will be "average." However, the CFO realizes that conditions could be better or worse, so she performed a scenario analysis and obtained these results: Economic Scenario Probability of Outcome NPV Recession 0.05 ($72 million) Below average 0.20 (12 million) Average 0.50 12 million Above average 0.20 18 million Boom 0.05 38 million Calculate the project's expected NPV, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation. Enter your answers for the project's expected NPV and standard deviation in millions. For example, an answer of $13,000,000 should be entered as 13. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. is there a way to do the standard deviation in excel? i am having trouble with the formula
Huang Industries is considering a proposed project whose estimated NPV is $12 million. This estimate assumes that economic conditions will be "average." However, the CFO realizes that conditions could be better or worse, so she performed a scenario analysis and obtained these results: Economic Scenario Probability of Outcome NPV Recession 0.05 ($34 million) Below average 0.20 (16 million) Average 0.50 12 million Above average 0.20 16 million Boom 0.05 28 million Calculate the project's expected NPV, standard deviation, and coefficient of variation. Enter your answers for the project's expected NPV and standard deviation in millions. For example, an answer of $13,000,000 should be entered as 13. Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to two decimal places. E(NPV): million σNPV: million CV: