The following are the sales figures for 2018 through 2020 for a product. Data for a year is available in two halves of the year, months January through June, and then July through December (Half-year 2). Suppose we are interested in setting up a forecasting model using the exponential smoothing method for stationary processes with seasonality. a) Initialize the system based on the data provided for 2018 and 2019. b) Suppose the smoothing factors are ?= 0.1 and ?= 0.1. Forecast and update for the first half of 2020 and then the second half of 2020 by incorporating the sales for the first half of 2020 . Calculate the MAD based on 2020 actuals and forecasts. c) Forecast sales for the two halves of 2021.
The following are the sales figures for 2018 through 2020 for a product. Data for a year is available in two halves of the year, months January through June, and then July through December (Half-year 2). Suppose we are interested in setting up a forecasting model using the exponential smoothing method for stationary processes with seasonality. a) Initialize the system based on the data provided for 2018 and 2019. b) Suppose the smoothing factors are ?= 0.1 and ?= 0.1. Forecast and update for the first half of 2020 and then the second half of 2020 by incorporating the sales for the first half of 2020 . Calculate the MAD based on 2020 actuals and forecasts. c) Forecast sales for the two halves of 2021.
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Question
The following are the sales figures for 2018 through 2020 for a product. Data for a
year is available in two halves of the year, months January through June, and then
July through December (Half-year 2).
Suppose we are interested in setting up a
smoothing method for stationary processes with seasonality.
a) Initialize the system based on the data provided for 2018 and 2019.
b) Suppose the smoothing factors are ?= 0.1 and ?= 0.1. Forecast and update for
the first half of 2020 and then the second half of 2020 by incorporating the sales for
the first half of 2020 . Calculate the MAD based on 2020
actuals and forecasts.
c) Forecast sales for the two halves of 2021.
Transcribed Image Text:Half-year
2018
2019
2020
1
1000
960
1100
2
625
680
675
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