The management of the BST Inn estimated that they can generate $182,000 an- $190,000 in room revenues in 2010 and 2011 respectively by using some other forecasting methods. However, the total room revenues were actually $187,000 and $203,000 in 2010 and 2011 respectively. Finance and accounting directors in the management team wants to come up with a robust forecasting report and they want to see the forecasting results done with exponential smoothing models. Therefore, if the management wishes to have 3,000 rooms sold in 2012. What is the forecasted ADR in 2012 based on the exponential smoothing model?
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- The Lockit Company manufactures door knobs for residential homes and apartments. Lockit is considering the use of simple (single-driver) and multiple regression analyses to forecast annual sales because previous forecasts have been inaccurate. The new sales forecast will be used to initiate the budgeting process and to identify more completely the underlying process that generates sales. Larry Husky, the controller of Lockit, has considered many possible independent variables and equations to predict sales and has narrowed his choices to four equations. Husky used annual observations from 20 prior years to estimate each of the four equations. Following are definitions of the variables used in the four equations and a statistical summary of these equations: St=ForecastedsalesindollarsforLockitinperiodtSt1=ActualsalesindollarsforLockitinperiodt1Gt=ForecastedU.S.grossdomesticproductinperiodtGt1=ActualU.S.grossdomesticproductinperiodt1Nt1=Lockitsnetincomeinperiodt1 Required: 1. Write Equations 2 and 4 in the form Y = a + bx. 2. If actual sales are 1,500,000 in the current year, what would be the forecasted sales for Lockit in the coming year? 3. Explain why Larry Husky might prefer Equation 3 to Equation 2. 4. Explain the advantages and disadvantages of using Equation 4 to forecast sales.Moses Moonrocks Inc. has developed a balanced scorecard with a measure map that suggests that the number of erroneous shipments has a direct effect on operating profit. The company estimates that every shipment error leads to a reduction of revenue by 3,000 and increased costs of about 2,000. If the company has the following budgeted sales and costs for next month (without accounting for any possible shipping errors), determine how many shipping errors the company can afford to have and still break even:Jamison examined monthly data for 2016 (not given in the case), and she detected an improving pattern during the year. Monthly sales were rising, costs were falling, and large losses in the early months had turned to a small profit by December. Thus, the annual data look somewhat worse than the final monthly data. Also, it appears to be taking longer for the advertising program to get the message out, for the new sales offices to generate sales, and for the new manufacturing facilities to operate efficiently. In other words, the lags between spending money and deriving benefits were longer than D’Leon’s managers had anticipated. For these reasons, Jamison and Campo see hope for the company—provided it can survive in the short run. Jamison must prepare an analysis of where the company is now, what it must do to regain its financial health, and what actions should be taken. Your assignment is to help her answer the following questions. Provide clear explanations, not yes or no answers.…
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- For the Hawkins Company, the monthly percentages of all shipments received on time over the past 12 months are 80, 82, 84, 83, 83, 84, 85, 84, 82, 83, 84, and 83. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? Compare a three-month moving average forecast with an exponential smoothing forecast for α = 0.2. Which provides the better forecasts using MSE as the measure of model accuracy? What is the forecast for next month?The president of Poleski would like to know the effect that each of the following suggestions for improving performance would have on contribution margin per unit, sales needed to break even, and projected net income for next year. Each change should be considered independently. Reset the Data Section to its original values after each suggestion is analyzed. Fill in the table following the suggestions with the results of your analysis. a. The president suggests cutting the products price. Since the market is relatively sensitive to price, . . . a 10% cut in price ought to generate a 30% increase in sales (to 156,000 units). How can you lose? b. The sales manager feels that putting all sales personnel on straight commission would help. This would eliminate 77,000 in fixed sales salaries expense. Variable sales commissions would increase to 2.00 per unit. This move would also increase sales volume by 30%. c. Poleskis head of product engineering wants to redesign the package for the product. This will cut 1.00 per unit from direct materials and 0.50 per unit from direct labor, but will increase fixed factory overhead by 100,000 for additional depreciation on the new packaging machine. The package redesign would not affect sales volume. d. The firms consumer marketing manager suggests undertaking a new advertising campaign on Facebook. This would cost 30,000 more than is currently planned for advertising but would be expected to increase sales volume by 30%. e. The production superintendent suggests raising quality and raising price. This will increase direct materials by 1.00 per unit, direct labor by 0.50 per unit, and fixed factory overhead by 110,000. With improved quality, . . . raise the price to 18.50 and advertise the heck out of it. If you double your current planned advertising, Ill bet you can increase your sales volume by 30%.The management of Hess, Inc., is developing a flexible budget for the upcoming year. It was not pleased with the small amount of net income the budget showed at all sales levels and Is contemplating using a less expensive material. This action reduces direct material cost by $1 per unit. What would be the effects on financial statements and a flexible budget if management takes this approach? Are there other factors that need to be considered?