The Simple Exponential Smoothing (SES) forecast with an alpha of 25 for period 4is: (round to 2 decimal places)AbsoluteAbsolute PercentErrorSquaredErrorNaiveX(Period) Y(Sales) Forecast ErrorError141531541101512Your Answer:

Answer Let forecast for period 1=13 Forecast for period 2=13+0.25*(13-13)=13 Forecast for period 3=…

Answered: The Simple Exponential Sr is: (round to…

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The Simple Exponential Sr is: (round to 2 decimal plae Naive x(Period) Y(Sales) Forecast Error 14

Essentials of Business Analytics (MindTap Course List)

2nd Edition

ISBN:9781305627734

Author:Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran, Michael J. Fry, Jeffrey W. Ohlmann, David R. Anderson

Publisher:Jeffrey D. Camm, James J. Cochran, Michael J. Fry, Jeffrey W. Ohlmann, David R. Anderson

Chapter8: Time Series Analysis And_forecasting

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 22P: Consider the following time series: a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in...

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Suppose the returns on an asset are normally distributed. The historical average annual return for the asset was 5.7 percent and the standard deviation was 18.3 percent. a. What is the probability that your return on this asset will be less than –4.1 percent in a given year? Use the NORMDIST function in Excel® to answer this question. (Do not round intermediate calculations and enter your answer as a percent rounded to 2 decimal places, e.g., 32.16.) b. What range of returns would you expect to see 95 percent of the time? (Enter your answers for the range from lowest to highest. A negative answer should be indicated by a minus sign. Do not round intermediate calculations and enter your answers as a percent rounded to 2 decimal places, e.g., 32.16.) c. What range of returns would you expect to see 99 percent of the time? (Enter your answers for the range from lowest to highest. A negative answer should be indicated by a minus sign. Do not round intermediate calculations…
. Using 625 trading days of data, you estimated the daily log return follows a normal distribution with a mean of 5 bps and and a stdev of 125 bps. Q1a. based on information above, what is the probability of true daily log return average is 0? can you reject the true mean is 0? can you reject the true mean is 10 bps? Q1b. what is the 90, 95, and 99% confidence interval for your mean return estimate? Q1c. what is the mean log return and stdev of log return over one year period and four year period (assuming 252 trading days per year)? Q1d. based on Q1c what is the probably of losing money (negative log return) or doubling your money (total log return = ln(2)) over 1 year and 4 year period?
Consider the following time series data: Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? Use a multiple regression model with dummy variables as follows to develop an equation to account for seasonal effects in the data: Qtr1 = 1 if quarter 1, 0 otherwise; Qtr2 = 1 if quarter 2. 0 otherwise; Qtr3 = 1 if quarter 3, 0 otherwise. Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year based on the model you developed in part (b). Use a multiple regression model to develop an equation to account for trend and seasonal effects in the data. Use the dummy variables you developed in part (b) to capture seasonal effects and create a variable t such that t = 1 for quarter 1 in year 1, t = 2 for quarter 2 in year 1, … t = 12 for quarter 4 in year 3. Compute the quarterly forecasts for next year based on the model you developed in part (d). Is the model you developed in part (b) or the model you developed in part (d) more effective? Justify your answer.
Consider the following time series data: Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data? Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 8. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE? Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.
Stock A has the following returns over the past periods. Calculate the downside risk measured by semi-variance? (answer with 4 decimal spaces) 0.0057 -0.0255 0.0621 -0.0879 -0.0983 0.0813 0.0356 -0.0015 -0.0307 0.0427 0.0297 0.0192
uppose the average return on Asset A is 7.1 percent and the standard deviation is 8.3 percent, and the average return and standard deviation on Asset B are 4.2 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively. Further assume that the returns are normally distributed. Use the NORMDIST function in Excel® to answer the following questions. a. What is the probability that in any given year, the return on Asset A will be greater than 12 percent? Less than 0 percent? (Do not round intermediate calculations and enter your answers as a percent rounded to 2 decimal places, e.g., 32.16.) b. What is the probability that in any given year, the return on Asset B will be greater than 12 percent? Less than 0 percent? (Do not round intermediate calculations and enter your answers as a percent rounded to 2 decimal places, e.g., 32.16.) c-1. In a particular year, the return on Asset A was −4.38 percent. How likely is it that such a low return will recur at some point in the future? (Do not round…
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The past five monthly returns for PG&E are −3.23 percent, 4.03 percent, 3.83 percent, 6.56 percent, and 3.64 percent. Compute the standard deviation of PG&E’s monthly returns. (Do not round intermediate calculations and round your final answer to 2 decimal places.) Standard Deviation %
Market Data Return Standard Deviation Beta Market Data 0.120 0.200 1.000 Risk-Free Rate 0.025 0.000 0.000 Company Data A B C Alpha 0.015 0.020 -0.005 Beta 1.200 0.800 1.250 Residual standard deviation, σ(e) 0.105 0.195 0.067 Standard Deviation of Excess Return 0.245 0.235 0.210 Required: Using the data above, please solve for the Sharpe Ratio, Treynor's Measure, and Information Ratio. (Use cells A3 to D10 from the given information to complete this question. Negative answers should be input and displayed as a negative values. All other answers should be input and displayed as positive values.) Risk-Adjusted Performance Measures A B C Market Sharpe Ratio Treynor's Measure Information Ratio
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