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You are a hotel manager and you are considering four projects that yield different payoffs, depending upon whether there is an economic boom or a recession. The potential payoffs and corresponding payoffs are summarized in the accompanying table.
| Project | Boom (50%) | Recession (50%) |
|---|---|---|
| A | $ 20 | −$ 10 |
| B | −$ 10 | $ 20 |
| C | $ 30 | −$ 30 |
| D | $ 50 | −$ 50 |
The variance in the returns of project D is
-
1,600.
-
225.
-
900.
-
0.
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- A risk-averse manager is considering two projects. The first project involves expanding the market for bologna; the second involves expanding the market for caviar. There is a 10 percent chance of a recession and a 90 percent chance of an economic boom. During a boom, the bologna project will lose $10,000, whereas the caviar project will earn $20,000. During a recession, the bologna project will earn $12,000 and the caviar project will lose $8,000. If the alternative is earning $3,000 on a safe asset (say, a Treasury bill), what should the manager do? Why?A risk-averse manager is considering a project that will cost £100. There is a 10 percent chance the project will generate revenues of £100, an 80 percent chance it will yield revenues of £50, and a 10 percent chance it will yield revenues of £500. Should the manager adopt the project? Explain. What will a risk-neutral and risk-loving manager do in the same situation?The following payoff table provides profits based on various posible decision alternativesand various levels of demand at Kmart Print Shop. Alternatives Low High Alternative 1 10,000 30,000 Alternative 2 5,000 40,000 Alternative 3 -2,000 50,000 The probability of low demand is 0.4, whereas the probability of high demand is 0.6.What is the highest possible expected monetary value?
- Two partners start a business. Each has two possible strategies, spend full time or secretly take a second job and spend only part time on the business. Any profits that the business makes will be split equally between the two partners, regardless of whether they work full time or part time for the business. If a partner takes a second job, he will earn $20,000 from this job plus his share of profits from the business. If he spends full time on the business, his only source of income is his share of profits from this business. If both partners spend full time on the business, total profits will be $200,000. If one partner spends full time on the business and the other takes a second job, the business profits will be $80,000. If both partners take second job, the total business profits are $20,000. a) This game has no pure strategy Nash equilibria, but has a mixed strategy equilibrium. b) This game has two Nash equilibria, one in which each partner has an income of $100,000 and one in…BPO Services is in the business of digitizing information from forms that are filled out by hand. In 2006, a big client gave BPO a distribution of the forms that it digitized in house last year, and BPO estimated how much it would cost to digitize each form. Form Type Mix of Forms Form Cost A 0.5 $3.00 B 0.5 $1.00 The expected cost of digitizing a form is . Suppose the client and BPO agree to a deal, whereby the client pays BPO to digitize forms. The price of each form processed is equal to the expected cost of the form that you calculated in the previous part of the problem. Suppose that after the agreement, the client sends only forms of type A. The expected digitization cost per form of the forms sent by the client is . This leads to an expected loss of per form for BPO. (Hint: Do not round your answers. Enter the loss as a positive number.)The value of a successful project is $420,000; the probabilities of success are 1/2 with good supervision and 1/4 without. The manager is risk neutral, not risk averse as in the text, so his expected utility equals his expected income minus his disutility of effort. He can get other jobs paying $90,000, and his disutility for exerting the extra effort for good supervision on your project is $100,000. (a) Show that inducing high effort would require the firm to offer a compensation scheme with a negative base salary; that is, if the project fails, the manager pays the firm an amount stipulated in the scheme. (b) How might a negative base salary be implemented in reality? (c) Show that if a negative base salary is not feasible, then the firm does better to settle for the low-pay, low-effort situation.
- For each of the following scenarios, determine whether the decision maker is risk neutral, risk averse, or risk loving. a. A manager prefers a 20 percent chance of receiving $1,400 and an 80 percent chance of receiving $500 to receiving $680 for sure. b. A shareholder prefers receiving $920 with certainty to an 80 percent chance of receiving $1,100 and a 20 percent chance of receiving $200. c. A consumer is indifferent between receiving $1,360 for sure and a lottery that pays $2,000 with a 60 percent probability and $400 with a 40 percent probability.The buyer of a piece of real estate is often given the option of buying down the loan. This option gives the buyer a choice of loan terms in which various combinations of interest rates and discount points are offered. The choice of how many points and what rate is optimal is often a matter of how long the buyer intends to keep the property. Darrell Frye is planning to buy an office building at a cost of $988,000. He must pay 10% down and has a choice of financing terms. He can select from a 7% 30-year loan and pay 4 discount points, a 7.25% 30-year loan and pay 3 discount points, or a 7.5% 30-year loan and pay 2 discount points. Darrell expects to hold the building for four years and then sell it. Except for the three rate and discount point combinations, all other costs of purchasing and selling are fixed and identical. 1. If Darrell chooses the 2-point 7.5% loan, what will be his total outlay in points and payment after 48months? (Wells Fargo)You have a 50 percent chance of making $0, a 40 percent chance of making $100, and a 10 percent chance of losing $100. Calculate the expected value and variance of the payoff.
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