Transcendent Technologies is deciding between developing a complicated thought-activated software, or a simple voice-activated software. Since the thought-activatedsoftware is complicated, it only has a 30% chance of actually going through to a successfullaunch, but would generate revenues of $50million if launched. The voice-activatedsoftware is simple and hence has a 80% chance of being launched but only generates arevenue of $10million. The complicated technology costs 10million, whereas the simpletechnology costs 2 million.What is the expected profit from developing the complicated software?$10 million$15 million$20 million$5 million

The gap between expected profits and expected costs is the expected value. The expected profit is…

Answered: Transcendent Technologies is deciding…

Managerial Economics: A Problem Solving Approach

5th Edition

ISBN:9781337106665

Author:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Publisher:Luke M. Froeb, Brian T. McCann, Michael R. Ward, Mike Shor

Chapter17: Making Decisions With Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 17.5IP

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The economic analysis division of Mapco Enterprises has estimated the demand function for its line of weed trimmers as QD=18,000+0.4N350PM+90Ps where N=numberofnewhomescompletedintheprimarymarketarea PM=priceoftheMapcotrimmerPS=priceofitscompetitorsSurefiretrimmer In 2010, 15,000 new homes are expected to be completed in the primary market area. Mapco plans to charge $50 for its trimmer. The Surefire trimmer is expected to sell for $55. What sales are forecasted for 2010 under these conditions? If its competitor cuts the price of the Surefire trimmer to $50, what effect will this have on Mapcos sales? What effect would a 30 percent reduction in the number of new homes completed have on Mapcos sales (ignore the impact of the price cut of the Surefire trimmer)?
We consider the following decision problem, with 4 decisions di,i∈{1,…,4}, and four possible outcomes ωi,i∈{1,…,4}, with the following table of profits: ω1 ω2 ω3 ω4 d1 30 30 0 30 d2 20 20 20 20 d3 0 50 10 40 d4 15 30 10 25 Which decision should be chosen for rewards depending on four different possible outcomes, according to the maximin rule, maximax rule, and optimism-pessimism rule with α<1/3?
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17-5. You are offered the following gamble based on coin flips. If the first head occurs on the first flip , you get $2 IF the first head occurs on the second flip you get $4, and so on, so that is the first head is on the Nth flip , you get $2N. The game ends only when a flip on the coin results in heads. What is the expected value of this gamble? When offered, most people say they would only pay less than $10 to play this game. What are two reasons why people are willing to pay so much less than the expected value?
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