urgent ! 1,1 3,0 0,3 2,2 (a) Can strategy profile (B,D) be played at the first stage if the game is repeated twice with observable actions without a discount factor? Why? (b) For which values of the discount factor strategy pro le (B,D) can be played when the game is repeated infinitely many times?
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- 1.4. Suppose you are against one of two alternatives but 90% of theelectorate disagrees with your position and favors that option. Is there avoting method that is anonymous, neutral, and monotone that preventsthat option from being selected as the winning alternative?4.25 The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of Nature Low Demand Medium Demand High Demand Decision Alternative s1 s2 s3 Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision.Recommended decision: Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.EVPI: $A manager is deciding whether to build a small or a large facility. Much depends on the future demand that thefacility must serve, and demand may be small or large. The manager knows with certainty the payoffs that willresult under each alternative, shown in the following payoff table. The payoffs (in $000) are the present values offuture revenues minus costs for each alternative in each event.What is the best choice if future demand will be low?
- . If you examine the decision tree in Figure 9.12 (orany other decision trees from PrecisionTree), you willsee two numbers (in blue font) to the right of each endnode. The bottom number is the combined monetaryvalue from following the corresponding path throughthe tree. The top number is the probability that thispath will be followed, given that the best strategy isused. With this in mind, explain (1) how the positiveprobabilities following the end nodes are calculated,(2) why some of the probabilities following the endnodes are 0, and (3) why the sum of the probabilitiesfollowing the end nodes is necessarily 1.Assume Person A is offered the following game: If they want to participate in the game, theywill need to pay £5. If they participate, they can choose between Option A and Option B.Option A consists of spinning a roulette wheel with 37 different numbers (18 red, 18 black,and 1 green). If the outcome is red, the participant receives £10 and £0 otherwise. Option B isa fair coin flip that yields £5 when heads comes up and £10 when tails comes up.(a) What is the expected value of Option A?(ii) What is the expected value of Option B?(iii) What is the expected value of participating in the game and choosingOption A?(iv) What is the expected value of participating in the game and choosingOption B?(v) How much would the game need to cost to make it a fair game when youchoose Option A?(vi) How much would the game need to cost to make it a fair game when youchoose Option B?(b) Person A chooses to participate in the above described game. Which of thefollowing options can be true regarding…We consider the following decision problem, with 4 decisions di,i∈{1,…,4}, and four possible outcomes ωi,i∈{1,…,4}, with the following table of profits: ω1 ω2 ω3 ω4 d1 30 30 0 30 d2 20 20 20 20 d3 0 50 10 40 d4 15 30 10 25 Which decision should be chosen for rewards depending on four different possible outcomes, according to the maximin rule, maximax rule, and optimism-pessimism rule with α<1/3?
- 8) Three decision makers have assessed utilities for the problem whose payoff table appearsbelow.s1 s2 s3d1 500 100 -400d2 200 150 100d3 -100 200 300probability.2 .6 .2Indifference Probability for PersonPayoff A B C300 .95 .68 .45200 .94 .64 .32150 .91 .62 .28100 .89 .60 .22-100 .75 .45 .10a. Plot the utility function for each decision maker.b. Characterize each decision maker's attitude toward risk.c. Which decision will each person prefer?Scenario planning is about:O.a) Preparing for scenarios that are highly impactful and/or uncertainO.b) Developing solutions to prevent scenarios from happeningO.c) Preparing only for those scenarios that are both impactful and uncertainO.d) ldentifying scenarios that are most likely to happenPlease no written by hand and no emage Suppose a company can select among two decisions (d1 and d2) and face three states of nature (s1, s2 and s3) with the following payoff table: Decision s1 s2 s3 d1 150 200 200 d2 50 200 500 The probabilities of s1, s2, and s3 are unknown. Using the optimistic approach, what is the optimal decision and what is the value of the payoff? Place the optimal decision in the first answer box and the maximum payoff used to arrive at this decision in the second.
- 4.7 Hudson Corporation is considering three options for managing its data processing operation: continuing with its own staff, hiring an outside vendor to do the managing (referred to as outsourcing), or using a combination of its own staff and an outside vendor. The cost of the operation depends on future demand. The annual cost of each option (in thousands of dollars) depends on demand as follows: Demand Staffing Options High Medium Low Own staff 650 650 600 Outside vendor 900 600 300 Combination 800 650 500 If the demand probabilities are 0.2, 0.5, and 0.3, and the table below shows the total cost of the different options, construct a risk profile for the optimal decision in the table. Option Total Cost Own Staff 635 Outside Vendor 570 Combination 635* Please be advised this is for practice preperation only ** i just really need help on this - I dont undertsand X is an arbitrary number Suppose the stage game was played for 3 rounds. Consider the following strategy: Round 1: play C. Round 2: play C if both players played C in round 1. Otherwise, play E. Round 3: play D if both players played C in rounds 1 and 2. Otherwise, play E.Ignore discounting (that is, δ = 1). Suppose that both players pick the strategy above. What condition on x is needed to make this strategy profile a SPNE? Hint: remember to check for possible deviations separately for rounds 1 and 2.(a) 5 ≥ x(b) 7 ≥ x(c) 9 ≥ x(d) 11 ≥ x(e) 13 ≥ xA global equity manager is assigned to select stocks from a universe of large stocks throughout the world. The manager will be evaluated by comparing her returns to the return on the MSCI World Market Portfolio, but she is free to hold stocks from various countries in whatever proportions she finds desirable. Results for a given month are contained in the following table: Country Weight InMSCI Index Manager’sWeight Manager’s Returnin Country Return of Stock Indexfor That Country U.K. 0.29 0.24 22% 15% Japan 0.42 0.2 17 17 U.S. 0.23 0.22 10 13 Germany 0.06 0.34 7 15 Required: a. Calculate the total value added of all the manager’s decisions this period. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to 2 decimal places. Negative amount should be indicated by a minus sign.) b. Calculate the value added (or subtracted) by her country allocation decisions. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to 2 decimal places. Negative amount…