Worked Problems (Show your calculations in order to get full credit) 1. Favors Distribution Company purchases small imported trinkets in bulk, packages them, and sells them to retail stores. They are conducting an inventory control study of all their items. The following data for the year 2006 are for one such item, which is not seasonal. [10 Points] | Month Sales Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 19 11 14 17 12 14 16 Aug 15 a. Use trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales (state the trend line equation in this problem). b. Calculate forecasts for February 2007, April 2007, and February 2008

Worked Problems (Show your calculations in order to get full credit) 1. Favors Distribution Company purchases small imported trinkets in bulk, packages them, and sells them to retail stores. They are conducting an inventory control study of all their items. The following data for the year 2006 are for one such item, which is not seasonal. [10 Points] | Month Sales Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul 19 11 14 17 12 14 16 Aug 15 a. Use trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales (state the trend line equation in this problem). b. Calculate forecasts for February 2007, April 2007, and February 2008

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 42P: The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars)...

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The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?
The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.
Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?
1. Favors Distribution Company purchases small imported trinkets in bulk, packages them, and sells them to retail stores. They are conducting an inventory control study of all their items. The following data for the year 2006 are for one such item, which is not seasonal. [10 Points] Month Sales Jan Feb 18 19 Mar Apr May Jun 17 21 20 19 Jul 20 Aug 23 a. Use trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales (state the trend line equation in this problem). b. Calculate forecasts for February 2007, April 2007, and February 2008
The following table shows the past two years of quarterly sales information. Assume that there are both trend and seasonal factors and that the seasonal cycle is one year. QUARTER SALES 154 190 154 145 216 236 208 175 Use time series decomposition to forecast quarterly sales for the next year. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to the nearest whole number.) Quarter Forecest 19 10 11 12
Favors Distribution Company purchases small imported trinkets in bulk, packages them, and sells them to retail stores. They are conducting an inventory control study of all their items. The following data for the year 2006 are for one such item, which is not seasonal. Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sales 15 18 14 12 19 10 11 15 Use trend projection to estimate the relationship between time and sales (state the trend line equation in this problem). Show the calculations of the intercept and the slope. Interpret the meaning of the intercept and the slope in this problem. Calculate forecasts for March 2007, May 2007, and June 2008
Please do not give solution in image formate thanku. Bradley's Copiers sells and repairs photocopy machines. The manager needs weekly forecasts of service calls so that he can schedule service personnel. Use the actual demand in the first period for the forecast for the first week so error measurement begins in the second week. The manager uses exponential smoothing with α = 0.5 Forecast the number of calls for week 6, which is next week. WEEK ACTUAL SERVICE CALLS 1 28 2 32 3 40 4 27 5 30
Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 Value 17 14 15 3 (b) mean squared error MSE = % 4 Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. (a) mean absolute error MAE = 5 6 (d) What is the forecast for week 7? 12 16 15 (c) mean absolute percentage error (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MAPE =
Centerville Bikes and Stuff (CBS) sells motorcycles and accessories. The number of helmets sold by CBS per week for the past six weeks follows. Week 1 2 3 Value 17 12 17 (a) mean absolute error MAE = (b) mean squared error MSE = Using the naive method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy. 4 % 5 6 (d) What is the forecast for week 7? 10 16 15 (c) mean absolute percentage error (Round your answer to two decimal places.) MAPE =
The following table shows the past two years of quarterly sales information. Assume that there are both trend and seasonal factors and that the seasonal cycle is one year. QUARTER SALES QUARTER SALES 1. 211 5 155 235 6 198 3 206 7 154 4 190 8 142 Use regression and seasonal indexes to forecast quarterly sales for the next year. (Do n ot round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to the nearest whole number.) Answer is complete but not entirely correct. Quarter Forecast 142 8 157 8 121 8 10 11 12 103
Given the demand data, answer the following questions below. Year Sales 1 - 123 2 - 118 3 - 109 4 - 112 5 -100 6 -110 7 -124 8 - ? What will be the forecast demand in Year 8 using Naïve method?a.) 120b.) 110c.) 115d.) 124
Year Season Sales 2018 Winter 40 2018 Spring 29 2018 Summer 31 2018 Fall 40 2019 Winter 102 2019 Spring 87 2019 Summer 96 2019 Fall 132 2020 Winter 105 2020 Spring 93 2020 Summer 105 2020 Fall 117 2021 Winter 141 2021 Spring 39 2021 Summer 114 2021 Fall 123 What is the slope of the trend equation obtained by linear regression? Round to two decimal digits. What is the intercept of the trend equation obtained by linear regression? Round to two decimal digits. What is the seasonal index for Spring? Round to two decimal digits. The quarter number for Winter of 2018 is 1. What is the quarter number for Spring of 2025? What is the trend based forecast for Spring of 2025. Round to a whole number. What is the seasonally adjusted trend based forecast for Spring of 2025? Please do not use excel to find the slope and intercept, thank you so much!