DAT 223 Project Two

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Southern New Hampshire University *

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Anthropology

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Dec 6, 2023

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Western Forest Service Client Proposal Analyst’s Name: Amelia Madsen Date: 02/15/2023 Research Questions What are the current estimated numbers of the beetle population? What would be an appropriate/realistic level for the beetle population? Where are the highest numbers of beetles? What methods have been the most effective for culling beetle species in other forests? Data Types We will start with getting a feel of some quantitative data about the beetle populations, their current numbers overall and in particular locations. The numbers of infested and downed trees and what would be our goal numbers for the beetle population should be. This data should be quantifiable and discrete values that can be compiled to give us a solid visual of the problem at hand. This data should be able to be gathered through databases that already exist, but if not, then some studies may have to be completed by coordinating our research team with the forest rangers in the area. Next, we will tackle some more qualitative data. What sections of the forest have the most beetles and thus need to be focused on first? What has been done in the past to manage beetle populations both in this forest and other forests across the country? Which of those methods has been the most effective? This data will be gathered through surveys of forest rangers, and experts on the Spruce Beetles. We could also interview visitors to the forest to determine what they have observed. Success Criteria The key to success is going to be setting clear and manageable goals. Before any action is taken, we need to know what we are aiming for. We can start by determining which areas of the forest should be focused on first. This could be areas with the highest beetle populations or areas where the most damage has been done by the beetles as these may not be the same areas. The overall goal is going to be what is an appropriate number for the beetle populations to be at. Since this is an invasive species, the ideal goal would be complete eradication. However, this is likely unrealistic so we need to start with a clear achievable level that will at least get the problem under control and mitigate the damage that is being done to the forest. Variables of Interest or Units of Analysis 1

For the initial quantitative approach our variables of interest will include population numbers, soil types, tree types, and number of downed trees. The CSV file we have been given by the Western Forest Service contains some cartographic variables that will be of interest. The variables of interest already provided to us through the CSV file are as follows: 1. Elevation: Elevation in meters 2. Aspect: Aspect in degrees azimuth 3. Slope: Slope in degrees 4. Horizontal_Distance_To_Hydrology: Horizontal distance to nearest surface water features 5. Vertical_Distance_To_Hydrology: Vertical distance to nearest surface water features 6. Horizontal_Distance_To_Roadways: Horizontal distance to nearest roadway 7. Hillshade_9am: Hill shade index at 9am, summer solstice. Value out of 255 8. Hillshade_Noon: Hill shade index at noon, summer solstice. Value out of 255 9. Hillshade_3pm: Hill shade index at 3pm, summer solstice. Value out of 255 10. Horizontal_Distance_To_Fire_Points: Horizontal distance to nearest wildfire ignition points 11. Wilderness_Areas 1-4 12. Cover_Type: Forest Cover Type designation. Integer value between 1 and 7, with an included key Our soil and tree types will be an independent variable that can be used to follow the dependent relationship between the beetles’ numbers and the environment. This will help determine if there is a preferred environment for the beetles. For the qualitative analysis guiding our approach toward reducing the beetle population the variables of interest will involve locations of beetles and the most effective methods of culling beetle species. Surveys of forest rangers and tourists will constitute individual units of analysis whereas the experts on Spruce Beetle populations will constitute a group. Data Gathering and Analysis Approach The Western Forest Service has a file containing some data that will be available to us for research. This is a CSV file and will require some converting to get it into an SQL format for us to efficiently manage and study the data. This file contains cartographic variables of 581,012 measurements. Most of which involve soil types, tree types and locations. It also contains a definition of a couple of sections of the forest that will be helpful in breaking down the forest into areas of focus. The soil and tree types will help determine the areas that are the most affected by the beetle populations as well as if the environment has any effect on the growth of the beetle populations. This won’t be enough to answer all our questions, however, so further research will need to be conducted. I suggest consulting some national databases for further numbers on beetle populations. If need be, a survey of the area can be done to estimate the numbers. This will cover our quantitative analysis and when combined with the data already available to us will allow us to create a map of the forest with highlighted areas to focus our efforts on. 2

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