HW_Turkey Earthquake

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Temple University *

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0836

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Astronomy

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Dec 6, 2023

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EES 0836 Earthquakes on the North Anatolian Fault System Disasters: Geology vs. Hollywood Introduction You are part of a team of scientists sent by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) to Turkey to investigate the hazard of earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault System (NAF). As a geoscientist, your goal is to address key questions, including: ● Where do earthquakes occur? ● Is there some information we could use to forecast the location of the next event? ● What should we be planning for next? Learning Objectives ● Analyze past events to forecast where future events occur. (1, 2, 5, a, b, c) ● Identify locations where city planners should prepare for future earthquakes. (1, 2, 5, a) Part 1: Forecasting earthquakes We know where plate boundaries are, and we know that earthquakes occur at these boundaries. But our ability to forecast when they will occur has remained a challenge for geologists. 1. What are some methods for forecasting earthquakes? Some methods for predicting earthquakes include monitoring seismic activity, precursor events, and mapping out the likelihood of earthquakes in certain areas. However given all these methods, it is still awfully hard to predict earthquakes with 100% accuracy. 2. Of the methods you listed, what do you think is the most promising method to use in the future? Explain your thinking. I think monitoring seismic activity has the most promising future as I think our technology is only getting better and with more sensitive tools, we could really develop that skillset. Although, I

EES 0836 think we should continue to develop all of our methods to have a well rounded approach to forecasting earthquakes. Part 2 : The data People have lived in Turkey for millennia with a rich set of historical writings and records of events. These historical accounts of disasters, and in some cases, the actual destruction of towns leading to refugee migrations, provide an unusually long record of earthquake occurrence. In this part of the activity, we will be plotting the amount of fault slip from events throughout the 1900’s and trying to forecast the location of future events. Just looking at the data included, it is difficult to see if there is any information to glean from it. To help us organize the data, we will be plotting the events from the data set into a format that would help us visualize the information more effectively. Data Set 1: Date (years) Position (km) parallel to fault Data source/type 1967 -410 / -330 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1957 -335 / -305 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1951 -195 / -130 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1944 -305 / -130 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1943 -130 / 140 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1942 155 / 185 Historical Account + Geo mapping 1939 95 / 440 Historical Account + Geo mapping How to Plot: Referring to Data Set 1, the column on the left shows the years, and the middle column contains the movements during that particular earthquake. On the provided table on the next page, plot these coordinates along with their years. Accuracy matters, but don’t worry too much about precision. The information, once plotted, should be clear enough. Just make sure you work in pencil in case you need to erase. ● Locate the approximate year on the Y axis. ● Then put a dot where the left coordinate is located and another where the right coordinate is located. ● Connect the dots for that event. ● 1967’s earthquake is completed for you. ● After plotting the data, answer the following questions.

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