Lab - Sunspot Prediction 2023

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Astronomy

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Jan 9, 2024

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Sunspot Prediction Lab 2023 Deanna Shields 1 Name: INTRODUCTION The Sun’s magnetic field switches polarity every 11 years or so. That is, the north magnetic pole becomes the south magnetic pole, and vice versa. Sunspots are cool, relatively dark spots on the Sun’s photosphere (visible surface). Sunspots are caused by irregularities in the Sun’s magnetic field. During a polarity switch, the Sun’s magnetic field lines become twisted and tangled, leading to a large number of sunspots. This event is known as solar maximum . Halfway in between polarity switches, the Sun’s magnetic field is relatively smooth, leading to little or no sunspot activity. This event is called solar minimum . Sunspots therefore go through a roughly 11-year cycle that is determined by the Sun’s polarity switches. Th is cycle is called the Sunspot Cycle. Question 1: Clearly and thoroughly define polarity switch in context of the Sun. Question 2: Clearly and thoroughly define sunspot . Question 3: Clearly and thoroughly define sunspot cycle . Question 4: Clearly and thoroughly define solar maximum and solar minimum . Question 5: The number of observed sunspots reached a minimum in December 2019. Approximately when would it be expected to reach a minimum again?
Sunspot Prediction Lab 2023 Deanna Shields 2 COUNTING SUNSPOTS In a browser, navigate to NASA’s Earth Observatory sunspot page . The top left image shows the Sun near solar maximum (2000). The top right image shows the Sun near solar minimum (2009). Question 6: In the images shown, count the individual sunspots near solar maximum and solar minimum, respectively. Note that there is some subjectivity here, so there is a range of possible right answers. How many do you see? Solar max: s max = Solar min: s min = Sunspot groups are clusters of sunspots. Every sunspot belongs to a group, even if it is a group of one. Here are two examples: Group of 1 sunspot Group of about 6 or 8 sunspots (Image credit: Solar Dynamics Observatory) Question 7: In the two sunspot images on the NASA Earth Observatory sunspot page, count the groups of sunspots near solar maximum and solar minimum, respectively. Note that there is some subjectivity here, so there is a range of possible right answers. How many do you see? Solar max: g max = Solar min: g min =
Sunspot Prediction Lab 2023 Deanna Shields 3 SUNSPOT NUMBER Scientists compute the sunspot number , or N, on a given day by counting both the individual sunspots and the groups of sunspots. They then compute the sunspot number using the equation N = k (10 g + s ), where k is a number that takes into account the viewing conditions and the telescope, g is the number of sunspot groups, and s is the number of individual sunspots. For this lab, let k = 1. Question 8: In the two sunspot images on the NASA Earth Observatory sunspot page, calculate the sunspot number near solar maximum and solar minimum, respectively. You must show your work to get full credit. Note that there is a range of possible right answers. Solar max: Solar min: SUNSPOT CYCLE The sunspot number rises and falls with the sunspot cycle, which lasts 11 years on average. Cycle 23 was a little longer than most, lasting 12.3 years (August 1996 – December 2008). Cycle 24 lasted about 11 years, ending in December 2019. The table below shows smoothed data for the average sunspot number in January of each year, beginning in 2009. Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration ( NOAA ).
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