Quality Pumps Company Forecast Process
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Tiffany Borkowski 1
Quality Pumps Company Forecast Process
Tiffany Borkowski
Business Process Management Systems
Professor Albert Miranda
October 26, 2023
Tiffany Borkowski 2
1. Quality Pumps uses forecasting methods which are casually informal and created by different levels of the organization, which has recently given the CEO a negative market survey analysis. The company forecasts future sales based on intermediate historical data analysis and judgmental forecasting. They also use sales promotions only if forecasting has faltered to stay in compliance with capital expenditure. The marketing director requests intermediate quantitative data from the previous year’s sale shipments, per month, per product line. The historical/quantitative statistics of their product lifespan combined with previous year data serves
as the idea for judging the next year’s month to month inventory need. This is an example of Sales Force Options (Bottom-Up) forecasting which is when the people closest to customers form a valuable opinion for review from higher level executives. This marketing forecast is then passed on to the Operations director who judges the numbers are inflated and doesn’t approve of the risk to over exceed on capital expenditure.
The Operations director then makes a 5% reduction of inventory forecast and then generates his monthly manufacturing plan and inventory. Along with the marketing director, the operating director both believe that their product lifespan of 10-20 years halts the market as mature/unchanging. During the second half of the year the company uses promotions to increase or catch up with the sales forecast, while also wreaking havoc on inventory and manufacturing plans. The Marketing Director seems to believe that this is the operation department’s fault due to excess time granted for planning and execution to meet forecast goals. The Marketing Director
conducts a Top-Down Executive Judgment Qualitative Forecast approach for annual forecasts. This is when several regional managers informally meet to go over sales promotions, economic changes, geopolitical issues, and previous year’s shortages. Based on shipment data and their meeting a monthly product line forecast is produced.
Tiffany Borkowski 3
This company is doing the right thing by using data from the year before and allowing for
multiple opinions from different regions of the organization. Although I believe that this company is not performing analysis of time periods that are proper considering the life cycle of their product. It has an informal process that lacks successful forecasting methodology, communication standards, and values. The company bases its forecast on an intermediate period, sales force options, and executive judgement which is causing inaccurate forecasts. The operations director and marketing director are not seeing eye to eye because of withheld information or ability to speak/be present in executive meetings. The forecasting process at Quality Pumps Company brings results that are inflated, cause disruptions in inventory and manufacturing plans, cause improper capital expenditures, and unsatisfied customers. Methods This company should be looking to incorporate are historical data from 20-10 years ago as well as the past years leading up till then. “Historical data plays a pivotal role in overcoming these challenges and improving demand forecasting accuracy. It provides valuable insights into the historical demand patterns, enabling manufacturers to identify trends, seasonality, and other factors that influence demand” (The Role of Historical Data in Accurate Demand Forecasting for Manufacturers, 2023). I believe a Casual Forecasting Method such as regression analysis would be the proper way to better forecast sales, as well as understanding demand patterns. The company also needs to have a more collaborative approach, more meetings
for communication, regular evaluation, and invest in forecasting technology. By incorporating these pointers, Quality Pumps Company can improve the accuracy and reliability in their forecasting process, leading to progressed production planning and customer satisfaction.
2. I have developed my own forecasting of the company Quality Pumps. I chose seasonal forecasting. The reason I chose this type of forecasting was because I saw a trend in data
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= ニ三▼三
+
1
2
3 TI 4 I
5.
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Please answer it ASAP.
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Forecasting is a prediction rather than a reality to mislead an organization into implementing the proper decisions.
Answer:
Short range forecast generally is used for decision making in a period of about three months, and the decision taken are related to job scheduling, assignments and production levels.
Answer:
Associate forecasting considers several dependent and independent variables to build a model and then forecast an item of interest.
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