HW_15 Second Warning
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EES 0836
15... 14… 13……………….. Earthquake!
Disasters: Geology vs. Hollywood
Introduction
In this week's reaction video, Jonathan Nyquist, PhD, watched a clip from the 2015 movie “San Andreas”
where he spoke about predicting earthquakes and why it wouldn’t be possible in the Hoover Dam. For the
most part, short-term predictions have eluded us. But keeping the public safe is a goal for government
officials. At the moment,the best we can do is to use early alert systems such as the one used in Japan.
The alert system that J
apan has instituted is based on the fact that P-waves arrive and are recorded by
seismographs before the more damaging S-waves and surface waves arrive. Once the waves are recorded,
the system sends out an alert to people in the area. While it’s a useful system, your distance from the
epicenter affects your personal response time.
Learning Objectives
●
Evaluate how different types of waves can propagate through different materials.
(1, 4, 5, c, d)
●
Analyze how people’s perception of shaking leads to the generation of shake maps.
(1, 4, c, d)
Part 1:
What could you do in 15 seconds?
To answer this question, we are going to conduct a class experiment. Your phone will play the role of the
Japanese warning device. Exchange your number with someone in this class, or if you are uncomfortable
with that, solicit the help of another friend or family member. The caller is to send you a text message at a
time of their
choosing, informing you that you have 15 seconds before a major earthquake will strike.
If
your phone was off at the time, simply take it from the moment you actually receive the message
.
Questions:
1.
When (day and time) did you receive the warning?
The day is Tuesday, October 24, 2023. The time I received the warning would be 1:28 p.m.
2.
What were you doing at the time?
I was in the Tech Center studying for an exam the following day.
3.
What course of action did you take, or would you have taken, if this had been a real emergency?
Describe this in detail.
I would immediately grab my backpack and run for a table. When I get to the table, I would crawl
under the table and cover my head and torso. I would also hold onto the table for dear life, so that
I would remain covered.
4.
Do you think the warning would have improved your prospects in a real earthquake? Why or why
not?
I do think the warning would have helped me if a real earthquake hit. Sure, I would panic for
probably five seconds or so, but then realization would kick in to protect myself. Without
EES 0836
warning, I would be out in the open of the Tech Center without anything to cover me.
5.
Would you have been able to help anyone else?
I’m not too sure. I think the most I could do to help would be screaming “Take cover!” like they
do in the movies. It depends on how much time is in between the warning and the actual
earthquake.
6.
If you lived in an area prone to major earthquakes, would you subscribe to an earthquake alert
service, and if so, what if you had to pay for it? How much would you be willing to pay per
month?
I would subscribe to an earthquake alert if I lived in an area prone to major earthquakes. If I had
to pay for it, I would pay up to $15 dollars a month. If it was more than that, I think I would opt
to not subscribe and take my chances. I would be familiar with how to protect myself from
earthquakes if I did live in an area that was prone to earthquakes, so I would simply have to react
quickly and with intent.
Part 2
: Reaction video reaction
In this week’s reaction video with Dr. Jon Nyquist, he watched a clip from the movie San Andreas (2015)
where they depicted geophysicists accurately predicting earthquakes using magnets (more specifically,
magnetometers). As we discussed in class, short term forecasting for earthquakes has, so far, eluded us.
For the sake of argument, let’s say some new technology was created that was able to accurately forecast
an earthquake within the hour. If you were alerted to a high magnitude event within the next hour, how
would you prepare yourself, family, and property for this event? Write a short response (1-2 paragraphs)
that addresses the above questions and your rationale for your choices/decisions.
This is a tricky question. If I got the alert that an earthquake with a high magnitude was occurring
in the next hour, I would understand it’s important to act fast. Assuming this is at Temple, where I live in
an apartment with five other people, I would immediately tell them what’s going to happen. First, I would
tell them where they are safest during the earthquake (under tables or desks) and to cover their heads and
torsos. I would let them know to stay away from windows, mirrors, or any hanging objects. I would then
shut off the gas, water, and electricity in case any of the lines are damaged. I would try to secure the water
heater in our apartment, but that would be quite difficult to do with little time. Then, I would get my
roommates to help me secure our heavy furniture in the living room and take all of our heavy hanging
decorations off the walls. We would have to put flammable items in cabinets to avoid starting a fire during
the earthquake. After all this is done, I would make sure all my roommates and I have safe spaces to take
cover when the earthquake starts. Finally, I would make a plan for all of us to meet downstairs and make
sure we’re all OK after the earthquake is done.
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