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Wk. 6 discussion
Time series decomposition seeks to separate the time series (Y) into 4 components: trend (T)
Shows long term direction of the time series,
cycle (C) Highlights the non-
seasonal changes in the time series
, seasonal (S) shows the seasonal patterns
, and irregular (I) captures the unexpected and random changes in the time series.
The model can be additive or multiplicative. When do you use each? The additive model can be used when the seasonal variation is relatively constant over time. The multiplicative model can be used when the seasonal variation increases over time.
Review the scatter plot of the exponential trend of the time series data. Do you observe a trend? Yes, you can observe this trend. If so, what type of trend do you observe? The observed trend is linear and moving upward.
What predictions might you make about the store’s annual sales over the next few years? I predict that the sales may increase over the years by looking at the pattern of the current scatter plot.
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Related Questions
Year
Quarter
Revenue
Q1
4.80
Q2
4.56
2015
Q3
4.88
Q4
4.91
Q1
5.37
Q2
4.99
2016
Q3
5.24
Q4
5.71
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2017
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5.66
Q4
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6.07
Q2
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2018
Q3
6.31
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6.30
Q1
6.60
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6.82
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6.75
Q1
7.10
Q2
6.00
2020
Q3
4.20
Q4
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Decomposition of a time series of a souvenir shop's sales is shown in the plot below. Choose all of the following which are true for this time series
Select one or more:
a. The sales peak right before new year's
b. There are quarterly (3-monthly) seasonal cycles in this tie series
c. There is an increase trend in the time series
d. This time series is not stationary
e. There is no seasonality in this time series
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A5
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D. MoviefliX, an online movie streaming service that offers a wide variety of award-winning TV
shows, movies, animes, and documentaries would like to determine the mathematical trend of
memberships in order to project future needs.
Year
2013
2014
2015 2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
Membership
17
16
16
21
20
20
23
25
24
(000s)
(i)
Use the following time series data, to develop a regression equation relating memberships
to time.
(ii)
Forecast 2023 membership.
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You are given the following dataset from a sample of the population.
Superhero
Number of Villains Captured
Number of Losses
Average Hours of Sleep
Spiderham
30
9
12
Alligator Loki
50
1
23
Iron Man
20
8
6
Phil Coulson
18
2
8
Yelena Belova
25
5
2
Round all answers to 2 decimal places. IE: 3.567 = 3.57
A. What kind of dataset is this? Answer either Panel, Time series, or cross sectional
B. Calculate the average number of villains captured in this sample.
C. Calculate the variance of the number of villains captured in this sample.
D. Calculate the correlation between the number of villains captured and average hours of sleep . If answer is negative, include negative sign.
E. Calculate the sample covariance between the average number of losses and average hours of sleep . If answer is negative, include negative sign.
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The numbers of polio cases in the world are shown in the table for various years.
Year Number of Polio Cases (thousands)
1988
1992
1996
2000
2005
2007
Let f(t) be the number of polio cases in the world t years since 1980.
Use a graphing calculator to draw a scattergram of the data. Is it better to model the data by
using a linear or exponential model? Select an answer
Find an equation of f. Hint
f(t)
=
350
138
33
4
3.2
1.3
The number of polio cases Select an answer
Hint
Round the coefficients to 2 digits.
Predict the number of polio cases in 2017.
years
by Select an answer
Predict in which year there will be 1 case of polio.
Find the approximate half-life of the number of polio cases. Hint
per year.
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Do not solve list all the variables objective function and contraints ASW Publishing, Inc., a small publisher of college textbooks, must make a decision regarding which books to publish next year. The books under consideration are listed in the following table, along with the projected threeyear sales expected from each book.
Book Subject Type of Book Projected Sales (000s)
Business calculus New 20
Finite mathematics Revision 30
General statistics New 15
Mathematical statistics New 10
Business statistics Revision 25
Finance New 18
Financial accounting New 25
Managerial accounting Revision 50
English literature New 20
German New 30
The books that are listed as revisions are texts that ASW already has under contract; these texts are being considered for publication as new editions. The books that are listed as new have been reviewed by the company, but contracts have not yet been signed.The company has three individuals who can…
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Only typed answer and please don't use chatgpt
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Question 2
For each of the following variables, indicate whether the data are time series or cross-sectional.
v Spending on household goods recorded monthly.
A. time series
v The annual percentage change in the population of Houston recorded over the last 10
B. cross-sectional
years.
v The percentage of adults 25-40 who report using online bil payment methods.
v The number of students at a university who use the on-campus health and recreation
center each day, recorded over a semester.
Revenue for the month of August in 2016 for all Starbucks locations in the Houston
area.
v A data set created today by a credit card bank showing the total spending of each of its
customers for the last three months.
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Sediment buildup behind a dam can adversely affect a reservoir's storage capacity. Measurements of a reservoir in 1988 showed it had a capacity of 500,000 acre-feet of water. Measurements in 2018 showed that the reservoir's capacity has been decreasing at a rate of 2,000 acre-feet per year. Find a linear model of the number of acre-feet A of water in the reservoir n years after 1988.
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For the past 10 years, you have been observing the sales of your company since you embarked on an aggressive advertising campaign. You have been recording the amounts spent on advertising and the corresponding sales as follows:
Year
Advert (X)
Sales (Y)
2001
10
44
2002
9
40
2003
11
42
2004
12
46
2005
11
48
2006
12
52
2007
13
54
2008
13
58
2009
14
56
2010
15
60
You would like to determine whether a relationship exists between your two variables of interest and therefore decide to run a regression.
Use an econometric package of your choice (EViews, SPSS, STATA etc) to estimate the model.
From the regression output, report the coefficients, standard errors, t-statistics, probability and R-squared (report the results in a table).
Re-write the specified model in (a) with values from the regression results and interpret the coefficients.
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For the past 10 years, you have been observing the sales of your company since you embarked on an aggressive advertising campaign. You have been recording the amounts spent on advertising and the corresponding sales as follows:
Year
Advert (X)
Sales (Y)
2001
10
44
2002
9
40
2003
11
42
2004
12
46
2005
11
48
2006
12
52
2007
13
54
2008
13
58
2009
14
56
2010
15
60
You would like to determine whether a relationship exists between your two variables of interest and therefore decide to run a regression.
a) Specify the estimation model you will use (the econometric form).b) Re-write the specified model in (a) with values from the regression results and interpret the coefficients.
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Define Nonstationarity? Explain the two most important types of nonstationarity in economic time series data?
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For each of the following variables, determine whether the variable is categorical or numerical. If the variable is numerical, determine whether the variable is discrete or continuous. In addition, determine the measurement scale.
a. Time, in hours, spent working per month
b. Name of a household's cable television provider
c. Number of online purchases made in a month
d. Satisfaction rating of a cable television provider (from low to high)
e. Time, in hours, spent surfing the Internet per month
a. Time, in hours, spent working per month is what kind of variable?
O A. This variable is a continuous numerical variable that is ratio-scaled.
O B. This variable is a discrete numerical variable that is ratio-scaled.
OC. This variable is a discrete numerical variable that is interval-scaled.
O D. This variable is a categorical variable that is ordinal-scaled.
O E. This variable is a categorical variable that is nominal-scaled.
O F. This variable is a continuous numerical variable that is…
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P'On the basis of quarterly sales (in $ lakhs) of a certain commodity for the years
2001-2003
Trend:
the following calculations were made :
y = 25-0 + 0-6t, with origin at 1st quarter of 2001,
where t = time units (one quarter), and y= quarterly sales $ lakhs).
Seasonal variations:
Quarter
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
Seasonal index
90
95
110
105
Estimate the quarterly sales for the year 2002 (use multiplicative model).
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List four main reasons and explain why empirical
research often involves taking natural logarithmic
transformation for time series analysis?
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Topic: Simple Regression
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Describe A time-ordered sequence of observations taken at regular intervals.
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Why is base 10 logarithm (log) derived as a natural logarithm (1/x2)? Please confirm that derivate of logarithm of base 10 is in this case 1/[x2*log(10)] to modify your answer. Thank you
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6
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not use ai please
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Stores commonly offer a cheaper unit price for large quantity purchases.
Quantity
1
2
5
10
20
Unit Price
$100.00
$80.00
$70.00
$50.00
$40.00
a. Use regression to find a logarithmic equation to model the data. Round the numbers in your equation to 2
decimal places.
y = a + bln(z) with
You
b
b. Use your equation to find an appropriate unit price for a customer who purchases 15 items.
c. Use your equation to find an appropriate unit price for a customer who purchases 25 items.
$
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Ypsilanti Market Research conducted a survey to find out whether people who earn more money purchase more expensive goods. The following graph indicates the relationship between income the survey subjects earned and the price of the car that they purchased.
The variable shown on the vertical axis is __________ (options: thousands of dollars per car, thousands of dollars per year, income, thousands of dollars, price, number of goods).
The units for the variable on the horizontal axis are _________ (options: thousands of dollars per car, thousands of dollars per year, income, thousands of dollars, price, number of goods).
There are two ways to view the information presented on the graph. First, the graph tells us the amount a person with a certain income is likely to spend on a car, and second, it tells us the probable income of a person who spent a certain amount on a car. For example, if an individual earned $50,000 last year and purchased a new car, you would expect that person to…
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compare the results of this graph for small vs large time windows. ( the first graph= small time window, 2nd graph = large time window)
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Q. Rubax, a U.S. manufacturer of athletic shoes, estimates the following linear trend model for show sales:
Qt = a + bt + c1D1 + c2D2 + c3D3
Qt = sales of athletic shoes in the tth quarter
t = 1, 2,..., 28 [2014(I), 2014(II),....,2020[IV)]
D1 = 1 if t is quarter I (winter); 0 otherwiseD2 = 1 if t is quarter II (spring); 0 otherwiseD3 = 1 if t is quarter III (summer); 0 otherwise
The regression analysis produces the following results:
a. Is there sufficient statistical evidence of an upward trend in shoe sales?
b. Do these data indicate a statistically significant seasonal pattern of sales of Rubax shoes? If so, what is the seasonal pattern exhibited by the data?
c. Using the estimated forecast equation, forecast sales of Rubax shoes for 2021(III) and 2022(II).
d. How might you improve this forecast equation?
Thank you!
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1. Solve the following problem by using Excel for graph sketching.
A soda vendor at Louisiana State University football games observes that more sodas
are sold the warmer the temperature at game time is. Based on 32 home games
covering five years, the vendor estimates the relationship between soda sales and
temperature to be y = -240 + 8x, where y = the number of sodas she sells and .x =
temperature in degrees Fahrenheit,
(a) Interpret the estimated slope and intercept. Do the estimates make sense? Why,
or why not?
(b) On a day when the temperature at game time is forecast to be 80°F, predict how
many sodas the vendor will sell.
(c) Below what temperature are the predicted sales zero?
(d) Sketch a graph of the estimated regression line.
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Q. 1B. Clearly explain in détail why logarthmic and dummy variables are regularly used in Time series Econometrics ?
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Fixed effects model with three time periods
Consider the following general fixed effects model for use with a panel data set with three time periods (T = 3):
yir = 51 +82 d2: +63 d31 + ẞ1x11 + ... + ẞkxisk + Vit
where, for t=1, 2, 3, and time period 1 is the base year:
yir = value of dependent variable y for i, in year t, in pounds
d2, 1 in the second time period (t = 2), and 0 otherwise
d3, =1 in the third time period (t = 3), and 0 otherwise
Xirl,..., Xink value of explanatory variables for individual i at time f
Vir = composite error consisting of the unobserved, time-constant effect (a) and the idiosyncratic error (uir)
If there are 106 cross-sectional units in your balanced panel data set, then the total number of observations you have in your data set is
For the first time period (1), the intercept is
Which of the following would cause pooled OLS estimation of the model to yield biased and consistent estimators? Check all that apply.
Measurement error in any explanatory variable…
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Time left U:18:05
CLEAR MY CHOICE
Finish a
Question
Consider the following model
Y=B1+B2 X2 +e. Assume you change the scale of the y and X variables in such a way that
Not yet
Y*=aY and X2*=bX2. and you run the regression Y*=B1*+B2* X". What effect this scaling will have on
answered
the slope
Marked out of
1.00
Select one:
P Flag
O a.
B2=a+b (B2)
question
O b. B2*=a/b^2 (B2)
O c. B2*-ab (B2)
O d. B2*=a/b (B2)
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