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Crafton Hills College *

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Economics

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Feb 20, 2024

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How has GDP Per Capita Changed Over Time? 1. Does the GDP per capita seem to change by a constant difference, a constant second difference, or a constant ratio in each 5-year period? Explain. 2. Three regression models for this data and their equations are shown below. Do you think a linear model, a quadratic model, or an exponential model fits the data best? Explain. ! " = −6844.79 + 200.530 ! " = 6579.89 − 183.040 + 1.7840 ! ! " = 1914.704(1.0149) " 3. Interpret the meaning of 1914.704 in the exponential regression equation. 4. Interpret the meaning of 1.0149 in the exponential regression equation. 5. Use the exponential model to predict the GDP per capita for the year 1830. 6. Imagine if we took all the data values for GDP and found the log of them. Use your calculator to fill in the selected values in the table. 7. What do you think the scatterplot will look like when plotting Years since 1800 and Log(GDP per capita)? Explain your reasoning. Years since 1800 GDP per capita Log(GDP per capita) 0 $2545.59 50 $3631.82 100 $8037.57 150 $15240.00 200 $45886.47 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of a country’s total economic activity—the value of all goods and services produced over a given time period. GDP per capita divides this measure by the population to get a per person unit of wealth. Data about the U.S. GDP per capita is given in the spreadsheet for the years 1800 to 2020. Key GDP seems to be changing at a constant ratio of about 1. 03 in the early 1800 's . The differences in GDP are not constant . The exponential model seems to fit best , especially for the years 1800 - 1920 . j=aob × g. estimated The estimated GDP per capita for the year 1800 is $ 1914.704 . = in Filed y=yqsgY ¥ Tde " " The estimated growth factor in Gpp per capita iÉ49 ' factor transformed I = 1914.704 ( 1.0149 ) " = $ 2984.003 g data 3. 4058 3. 5601 3. 9051 4. 1830 4. 6617 I think the scatter plot will look linear because a log takes inputs that grow proportionally + produces outputs that grow linearly .
8. This scatterplot graphs Years since 1800 versus the Log(GDP per capita). What do you notice? 9. The equation for the line shown is given by ! " = 3.2821 + 0.0064- . a. Interpret the meaning of 3.2821 in the linear regression equation. b. Interpret the meaning of 0.0064 in the linear regression equation. c. Use the linear model to predict the GDP per capita for the year 1830. 10. The exponential model for the original data is given by ! " = 1914.704(1.0149) " . The linear model for the transformed data is given by ! " = 3.2821 + 0.0064- . How are the numbers in the transformed linear model related to the numbers of the original exponential regression? 11. Why might it be helpful to transform exponential data and produce a linear model? It looks linear ! semi The Log Lapp per capita ) is plot going up by a roughly equal amount over each y-axis now dependent ) equal time interval . LOG ( variable transformed linear model The estimated log of GDP per capita in the year guetpifefi.FM 1800 is 3.2821 . - µ g µ %Pp ¥ Ñ " the oÉpapita is estimated to increase by 0.0064 each year . Ñ = 3- 2821 1- 0.0064 ( 30 ) = 3.474 , 109 ( P ) 3. 4741 = $ 2979 . 2oz log GDP= 3.4741 10 Gpp = 103.4741 3. 2821 = 10g (1914.7-04) log [ 1914.704 11.0149 ) × ] 0.0064 = 109 ( 1.0149 ) = log (1914.7-04)+10911.0149 × 1 = 10911914.704 ) 1- 10911.0149 ) linear equations are easier to evaluate , solve , graph , manipulate and interpret .
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