APznzaZ0VYbZToW2gJ-V8bmHJTZ3jOJqHwgRzOjk1O2FUCgDJxupzMKEUUFPCbK1506v-33GwqVPM7J1RQZ23rg9QiU0UV13JpUZ
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Crafton Hills College *
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Course
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Subject
Economics
Date
Feb 20, 2024
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How has GDP Per Capita Changed Over Time?
1.
Does the GDP per capita seem to change by a constant difference, a constant second difference, or a constant ratio in each 5-year period? Explain. 2.
Three regression models for this data and their equations are shown below. Do you think a linear model, a quadratic model, or an exponential model fits the data best? Explain. !
" = −6844.79 + 200.530
!
" = 6579.89 − 183.040 + 1.7840
!
!
" = 1914.704(1.0149)
"
3.
Interpret the meaning of 1914.704 in the exponential regression equation. 4.
Interpret the meaning of 1.0149 in the exponential regression equation. 5.
Use the exponential model to predict the GDP per capita for the year 1830. 6.
Imagine if we took all the data values for GDP and found the log of them. Use your calculator to fill in the selected values in the table. 7.
What do you think the scatterplot will look like when plotting Years since 1800 and Log(GDP per capita)? Explain your reasoning. Years since 1800 GDP per capita Log(GDP per capita) 0 $2545.59 50 $3631.82 100 $8037.57 150 $15240.00 200 $45886.47 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a measure of a country’s total economic activity—the value of all goods and services produced over a given time period. GDP per capita divides this measure by the population to get a per person unit of wealth. Data about the U.S. GDP per capita is given in the spreadsheet for the years 1800 to 2020. Key
GDP
seems
to
be
changing
at
a
constant
ratio
of
about
1.
03
in
the
early
1800
's
.
The
differences
in
GDP
are
not
constant
.
The
exponential
model
seems
to
fit
best
,
especially
for
the
years
1800
-
1920
.
j=aob
×
g.
estimated
The
estimated
GDP
per
capita
for
the
year
1800
is
$
1914.704
.
=
in
Filed
y=yqsgY
¥
Tde
"
"
The
estimated
growth
factor
in
Gpp
per
capita
iÉ49
'
factor
transformed
I
=
1914.704
(
1.0149
)
"
=
$
2984.003
g
data
3.
4058
3.
5601
3.
9051
4.
1830
4.
6617
I
think
the
scatter
plot
will
look
linear
because
a
log
takes
inputs
that
grow
proportionally
+
produces
outputs
that
grow
linearly
.
8.
This scatterplot graphs Years since 1800 versus the Log(GDP per capita). What do you notice? 9.
The equation for the line shown is given by !
" = 3.2821 + 0.0064-
. a.
Interpret the meaning of 3.2821 in the linear regression equation. b.
Interpret the meaning of 0.0064 in the linear regression equation. c.
Use the linear model to predict the GDP per capita for the year 1830. 10.
The exponential model for the original data is given by !
" = 1914.704(1.0149)
"
. The linear model for the transformed data is given by !
" = 3.2821 + 0.0064-
. How are the numbers in the transformed linear model related to the numbers of the original exponential regression? 11.
Why might it be helpful to transform exponential data and produce a linear model?
It
looks
linear
!
semi
"°
The
Log
Lapp
per
capita
)
is
plot
going
up
by
a
roughly
equal
amount
over
each
y-axis
now
dependent
)
equal
time
interval
.
LOG
(
variable
✓
transformed
linear
model
The
estimated
log
of
GDP
per
capita
in
the
year
guetpifefi.FM
1800
is
3.2821
.
-
µ
g
µ
%Pp
¥
Ñ
"
the
oÉpapita
is
estimated
to
increase
by
0.0064
each
year
.
Ñ
=
3-
2821
1-
0.0064
(
30
)
=
3.474
,
✓
109
(
⊥
☐
P
)
3.
4741
=
$
2979
.
2oz
log
GDP=
3.4741
10
Gpp
=
103.4741
3.
2821
=
10g
(1914.7-04)
log
[
1914.704
11.0149
)
×
]
0.0064
=
109
(
1.0149
)
=
log
(1914.7-04)+10911.0149
×
1
=
10911914.704
)
1-
✗
10911.0149
)
linear
equations
are
easier
to
evaluate
,
solve
,
graph
,
manipulate
and
interpret
.
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7
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2
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Imagine you are an economist working for the Government of Econville. You are tasked with developing a model to predict the GDP of the country based on various factors such as interest rates, inflation, unemployment rate, and population growth. You collect quarterly data for the past 20 years and start building your model. After running your initial regression, you notice some peculiar patterns in the residuals: (1) residuals do not have identical variances across different levels of the independent variables; (2) two or more independent variables in a regression model are highly correlated with each other; (3) the correlation of a variable with its own past values. You suspect that your model might be suffering from 3 potential issues in the regression analysis that can affect reliability and validity. List 2 factors in your model that might be causing the Multicollinearity and give a reason
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Imagine you are an economist working for the Government of Econville. You are tasked with developing a model to predict the GDP of the country based on various factors such as interest rates, inflation, unemployment rate, and population growth. You collect quarterly data for the past 20 years and start building your model. After running your initial regression, you notice some peculiar patterns in the residuals: (1) residuals do not have identical variances across different levels of the independent variables; (2) two or more independent variables in a regression model are highly correlated with each other; (3) the correlation of a variable with its own past values. You suspect that your model might be suffering from 3 potential issues in the regression analysis that can affect reliability and validity. What name would you give to this potential issue that pertains to two or more independent variables in a regression model are highly correlated with each other
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- The following graph shows the relationship between real GDP growth and change in unemployment for the US between 1961 and 2013. US (1961-2013) Change in unemployment rate (%) 6 4 6 2009 -1 0 y=-0.3768x+1.2298 R=0.641 4 Real GDP growth (%) The equation shown is the regression result for the best-fitting line. Based on this information, which of the following statements is correct? 9 a) With real GDP falling by 2.8% in 2009, the predicted rise in the unemployment rate would have been 2.3% b) From the regression result, policy makers can be sure that a 1 percentage point increase in real GDP next year will definitely lead to a fall in the unemployment rate of 0.38%. Oc) The unemployment rate remains stable when there is zero real GDP growth. d) Okun's coefficient for the US is 1.2298arrow_forwardRun the Multiple Linear Regression using Fatalities as the dependentvariable and Licensed drivers, registered vehicles, and GDP per capita as independentvariables. Submit Excel FileCalculate the following:a- Interpret the R-squareb-Find the equation of the fitted linec- Which variable has the strongest relationship with number of fatalities?d- Identify which variables are significant/non-significant using alpha = 0.05? Fatalities Licensed Drivers Registered Vehicles GDP per Capita (measured) 953 3999057 5300199 40598 80 536033 803684 71996 1010 5284970 5806313 43464 516 2145334 2817145 38919 3563 27039400 31022328 68970 632 4244713 5356018 59885 294 2605612 2879802 68555 111 786504 1008468 64895 31 527731 351933 176498 3133 15368695 17496002 43423 1504 7168733 8512550 50288 117 948417 1267385 58185 231 1252535 1879670 40189 1031 8714788 10588910 60419 858 4589405 6190736 49209 318 2260271 3691892 54520 404 2149430 2684010 53094 724…arrow_forwardQ3. Let the given data set be as follows Time GDP (In crore) 2020 2 2021 5 2022 Based on the above information, answer the following questions. i. ii. Fit the regression model by using the matrix method as GDP, a+pGDP +& Find the estimated error term. Forecast the GDP for the year 2023. ソーダ 12arrow_forward
- A company sets different prices for a particular DVD system in eight different regions of the country. The accompanying table shows the numbers of units sold and the corresponding prices (in dollars). Sales 420 380 350 400 440 380 450 420 Price 104 195 148 204 96 256 141 109a. Graph these data, and estimate the linear regression of sales on price. b. What effect would you expect a $50 increase in price to have on sales?arrow_forwardThe following data relate the sales figures of the bar in Mark Kaltenbach's small bed-and-breakfast inn in portland, to the number of guest registered that week: week guests bar sales 1 16 $330 2 12 $270 3 18 $380 4 14 $315 a) The simple linear regression equation that relates bar sales to number of guests(not to time) is (round your responses to one decimal place): Bar sales = [___]+[___]X guestsarrow_forwardThe numbers of polio cases in the world are shown in the table for various years. Year Number of Polio Cases (thousands) 1988 1992 1996 2000 2005 2007 Let f(t) be the number of polio cases in the world t years since 1980. Use a graphing calculator to draw a scattergram of the data. Is it better to model the data by using a linear or exponential model? Select an answer Find an equation of f. Hint f(t) = 350 138 33 4 3.2 1.3 The number of polio cases Select an answer Hint Round the coefficients to 2 digits. Predict the number of polio cases in 2017. years by Select an answer Predict in which year there will be 1 case of polio. Find the approximate half-life of the number of polio cases. Hint per year.arrow_forward
- GSU is trying to predict how price of books predict the quantity of books sold over the semesters. Perform a liner regression analysis, and and find the best model to predict quantity of books to stock in the book store. Make recommendation at setting the prices and quantity at their optimum values for maximizing quantity of books sold. Be prepared to discuss your analysis. Quantity Price 180 475 590 400 430 450 250 550 275 575 720 375 660 375 490 450 700 400 210 500arrow_forwardThe table shows the yield (in bushels per acre) and the total production (in millions of bushels) for corn in a country for selected years since 1950. Let x represent years since 1900. Find a logarithmic regression model (y = a + b In x) for the yield. Estimate the yield in 2029. The regression model is y=+()Inx. (Round to one decimal place as needed.) ~ Year 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 X Yield 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 41 54 85 96 110 146 158arrow_forwardSuppose you want to study the relationship between city GDP and how many companies are operated by government using a single regression 〖ln(GDP)〗_i =8.5+ 0.013〖govc〗_i + u_i. Govc means the number of companies operated by government in the city. Before you do anything, interpret the slope coefficient. If one city has 5 government operated companies, predict the GDP. (answer the GDP that is not logged) Now assume the standard error of β_0 (intercept) is 2, standard error of β_1 (slope) is 0.01, and the sample size is n=200, write down and explain the steps of conducting significance test by hand for the estimated coefficient on 〖govc〗_i in detail. What does the test result imply? If the sample size is n=25, a very small sample size, standard error of β_1 (slope) is still 0.01, will your steps change? Suppose your fail to reject the hypothesis in question 3). Apply the null hypothesis i.e. the parameter equals to the number in your null, show that R^2=0 in this case. What does…arrow_forward
- The diagram shows what happened to the consumption of lamb in the UK over the period 1974– 2015. How can we explain this dramatic fall in consumption? One way of exploring this issue is to make use of a regression model, which should help us to see which variables are relevant and how they are likely to affect 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Note: Data from 2015 based on end of financial year. Source: Based on data in Family Food datasets UK consumption of lamb: 1974–2017 The following is an initial model fitted to annual data for the years 1974–2010. QL = 144.0 – 0.137PL – 0.034PB + 0.214PP – 0.00513Y + e (1) where: QL is the quantity of lamb sold in grams per person per week; PL is the ‘real’ price of lamb (in pence per kg, 2000 prices); PB is the ‘real’ price of beef (in pence per…arrow_forwardThe table below shows the number, in thousands, of vehicles parked in the central business district of a certain city on a typical Friday as a function of the hour of the day. Hour of the day Vehicles parked(thousands) 9 A.M. 6.2 11 A.M. 7.4 1 P.M. 7.5 3 P.M. 6.6 5 P.M. 3.9 (a) Use regression to find a quadratic model for the data. (Let V be the number of vehicles and t be the time in hours since midnight. Round the regression parameters to three decimal places.) V = (b) Express using functional notation the number of vehicles parked on a typical Friday at 4 P.M., and then estimate that value. (Round your answer to two decimal places.) V = = thousandarrow_forward4. The following regression is fitted using variables identified that could be related to tuition charges ($) of a university. TUITION = a+ B ACCEPT + y MSAT + 1 VSAT Where ACCEPT = the percentage of applicants that was accepted by the university, MSAT = Median Math SAT score for the freshman class and VSAT = Median English SAT score for the freshman class. The data was processed using MNITAB and the following is an extract of the output obtained: Predictor Coef StDev Constant -26780 6115 ACCEPT 116.00 37.17 MSAT -4.21 14.12 VSAT 70.85 15.77 т P -4.38 0.000 0.003 -0.30 4.49 0.767 ** S = 2685 R-Sq 69.6% R-Sq (adj) = 67.7% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS MS Regression 3 Residual Error 49 Total 52 808139371 353193051 1161332421 269379790 7208021 F 37.37 Р 0.000 a) Write out the regression equation. b) State the dependent and independent variable(s) c) Fill in the blanks identified by ** and ****. d) Is significant, at the 10% level of significance? [1] [2] [6] [4] e) State one…arrow_forward
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