Assignment2 Solutions Chap 2 Forecasting
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Economics
Date
Feb 20, 2024
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2
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1.
(Multiple Choice) (1 pt) TOTAL = 25 points A company conducts preliminary analysis on 12 months of data to study the relationship between monthly e-commerce sales and the online advertising costs. From the analysis, the company concludes a linear relationship between the two factors. In order to quantify the linear relationship between monthly e-commerce sales and the online advertising costs, the number of parameters that need to be estimated are equal to a.
1 b.
2 c.
11 d.
12 2.
(Multiple Choice) (1 pt)
Which of the following sequences of tasks correctly describes the Holt’s method
: a.
calculate new intercept, calculate new slope, calculate the forecast, fit regression line. b.
calculate new slope, calculate new intercept, calculate the forecast, fit regression line. c.
fit regression line, calculate new slope, calculate new intercept, calculate the forecast. d.
fit regression line, calculate new intercept, calculate new slope, calculate the forecast. Week Demand 1 55 2 70 3 84 4 93 5 105 6 120 7 129 8 141 9 154 10 166 11 177 12 189 Popeye’s recently opened in Blacksburg, VA (it didn’t, but I wish). They have been noticing an increase in demand for chicken sandwiches over the past 12 days since they opened. Given the following weekly demand observations over the previous 12 days answer questions 1-8 with linear regression and Holt’s approaches.
3.
Using linear regression, find the demand forecast for day 13. (Round the final answers tenths X.X) (2 pts)
4.
Using linear regression, find the demand forecast for day 14. (Round the final answers tenths X.X)
(2 pts)
5.
Using linear regression, find the demand forecast for day 15. (Round the final answers tenths X.X)
(2 pts)
Regression Forecast
13
201.6
14
213.6
15
225.6
6.
Using Holt’s method where ? = 0.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ? = 0.3
, find the demand forecast for day 13. (Round the final answers tenths X.X) (2 pts)
7.
Using Holt’s method where ? = 0.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ? = 0.3
, find the demand forecast for day 14. (Round the final answers tenths X.X) (2 pts)
8.
Using Holt’s method where ? = 0.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ? = 0.3
, find the demand forecast for day 15. (Round the final answers tenths X.X) (2 pts)
13
220.0
14
235.5
15
251.0
Test Holt’s method by generating the forecast for weeks 5 through 12 and check the error in the prediction. 9.
(1 pt) What is the MAD when ? = 0.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ? = 0.3?
(Round the final answers tenths X.X) 14.2
10.
(1 pt) What is the MSE when ? = 0.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ? = 0.3?
(Round the final answers tenths X.X) 252.2
11.
(1 pt) What is the MAPE when ? = 0.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ? = 0.3?
(Round the final answers tenths X.X) 10.1
12.
Which of the following pairs of values of ? 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ?
result in the best forecast with respect to the three error calculations? (2 pts)
a.
? = 0.9 , ? = 0.1
b.
? = 0.2 , ? = 0.3
c.
?
= 0
.6
, ?
= 0
.99
d.
? = 0.5, ? = 0.5
e.
? = 0.15, ? = 0.25
alpha
beta
MAD
MSE
MAPE
0.9
0.1
16.32637
360.6
0.130603
0.2
0.3
30.26431
1157.3
0.230792
0.6
0.99
14.58824
349.2
0.122773
0.5
0.5
16.1358
333.912
0.12699
0.15
0.25
41.1216
2009.727
0.295627
13.
Please upload the excel worksheet indicating your work. (6 pt)
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Question 1. You are asked to advice on the relationship between two
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Show all working.
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(02
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(10 marks)
Output (Units) TC (OMR)AC (OMR) MC (OMR)
55
1
85
2
110
3
130
14
40
42
16
280
17
90
8
110
19
610
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Production
Times
(months)
1
9 10
11 12 13 14 15
product of
970 1,180 1,239 1,293 1,350 1,398 1,410 1,480 1,492 1,500 1,520 1,592 1,605 1,660 1,685
(Z unit)
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Plat graphically all the given
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Demand Factor
Average American household income
Roundtrip airfare from Des Moines (DSM) to Atlantic City (ACY)
Room rate at the Continental Hotel and Casino, which is near the Rivers
PRICE (Dollars per room)
Use the graph input tool to help you answer the following questions. You will not be graded on any changes you make to this graph.
Note: Once you enter a value in a white field, the graph and any corresponding amounts in each grey field will change accordingly.
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0
Demand
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
QUANTITY (Hotel rooms)
Graph Input Tool
Market for Rivers's Hotel Rooms
Price
(Dollars per room)
Quantity
Demanded
(Hotel rooms per
night)
Demand Factors
Average Income
(Thousands of
dollars)
Initial Value
$50,000 per year
$200 per roundtrip
$250 per night
Airfare from DSM to
ACY
(Dollars per
roundtrip)
Room Rate at
Continental
(Dollars per night)
350
150
50
200
250
?
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==
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D
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zone
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1
1,000
2
3,000
3
2,000
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8
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1
2
3
Population in
zone
1,000
3.000
2,000
Cost Per Hiking
Trip Per Person
20
40
80
Hiking Trips
Taken Per Zonal
Person Per Year
8
6
2
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Quantity of pineapple
number of workers
0
0
5
1
20
2
40
3
70
4
140
5
180
6
195
7
200
8
203
9
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500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Demand
D 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
QUANTITY (Hotel rooms)
Graph Input Tool
Market for Oceans's Hotel Rooms
Price
(Dollars per room)
Quantity
Demanded
(Hotel rooms per
night)
Demand Factors
Average Income
(Thousands of
dollars)
Airfare from MSY to
ACY
(Dollars per
roundtrip)
Room Rate at
Meadows
(Dollars per night)
350
150
50
200
250
?
For each of the following scenarios, begin by assuming that all demand factors are set to their original values and Oceans is charging $350 per room
per night.
If average household income increases by 20%, from $50,000 to $60,000 per year, the quantity of rooms demanded at the Oceans from
rooms per night to
rooms per night. Therefore, the income elasticity of demand is.
, meaning that hotel rooms at the
Oceans are
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