Assignment2 Solutions Chap 2 Forecasting

.pdf

School

Virginia Tech *

*We aren’t endorsed by this school

Course

3104

Subject

Economics

Date

Feb 20, 2024

Type

pdf

Pages

2

Uploaded by ConstableKoupreyMaster3919

Report
1. (Multiple Choice) (1 pt) TOTAL = 25 points A company conducts preliminary analysis on 12 months of data to study the relationship between monthly e-commerce sales and the online advertising costs. From the analysis, the company concludes a linear relationship between the two factors. In order to quantify the linear relationship between monthly e-commerce sales and the online advertising costs, the number of parameters that need to be estimated are equal to a. 1 b. 2 c. 11 d. 12 2. (Multiple Choice) (1 pt) Which of the following sequences of tasks correctly describes the Holt’s method : a. calculate new intercept, calculate new slope, calculate the forecast, fit regression line. b. calculate new slope, calculate new intercept, calculate the forecast, fit regression line. c. fit regression line, calculate new slope, calculate new intercept, calculate the forecast. d. fit regression line, calculate new intercept, calculate new slope, calculate the forecast. Week Demand 1 55 2 70 3 84 4 93 5 105 6 120 7 129 8 141 9 154 10 166 11 177 12 189 Popeye’s recently opened in Blacksburg, VA (it didn’t, but I wish). They have been noticing an increase in demand for chicken sandwiches over the past 12 days since they opened. Given the following weekly demand observations over the previous 12 days answer questions 1-8 with linear regression and Holt’s approaches. 3. Using linear regression, find the demand forecast for day 13. (Round the final answers tenths X.X) (2 pts) 4. Using linear regression, find the demand forecast for day 14. (Round the final answers tenths X.X) (2 pts)
5. Using linear regression, find the demand forecast for day 15. (Round the final answers tenths X.X) (2 pts) Regression Forecast 13 201.6 14 213.6 15 225.6 6. Using Holt’s method where ? = 0.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ? = 0.3 , find the demand forecast for day 13. (Round the final answers tenths X.X) (2 pts) 7. Using Holt’s method where ? = 0.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ? = 0.3 , find the demand forecast for day 14. (Round the final answers tenths X.X) (2 pts) 8. Using Holt’s method where ? = 0.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ? = 0.3 , find the demand forecast for day 15. (Round the final answers tenths X.X) (2 pts) 13 220.0 14 235.5 15 251.0 Test Holt’s method by generating the forecast for weeks 5 through 12 and check the error in the prediction. 9. (1 pt) What is the MAD when ? = 0.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ? = 0.3? (Round the final answers tenths X.X) 14.2 10. (1 pt) What is the MSE when ? = 0.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ? = 0.3? (Round the final answers tenths X.X) 252.2 11. (1 pt) What is the MAPE when ? = 0.2 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ? = 0.3? (Round the final answers tenths X.X) 10.1 12. Which of the following pairs of values of ? 𝑎𝑛𝑑 ? result in the best forecast with respect to the three error calculations? (2 pts) a. ? = 0.9 , ? = 0.1 b. ? = 0.2 , ? = 0.3 c. ? = 0 .6 , ? = 0 .99 d. ? = 0.5, ? = 0.5 e. ? = 0.15, ? = 0.25 alpha beta MAD MSE MAPE 0.9 0.1 16.32637 360.6 0.130603 0.2 0.3 30.26431 1157.3 0.230792 0.6 0.99 14.58824 349.2 0.122773 0.5 0.5 16.1358 333.912 0.12699 0.15 0.25 41.1216 2009.727 0.295627 13. Please upload the excel worksheet indicating your work. (6 pt)
Your preview ends here
Eager to read complete document? Join bartleby learn and gain access to the full version
  • Access to all documents
  • Unlimited textbook solutions
  • 24/7 expert homework help