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Time Actual (Y) Forecast (Yhat) Forecast Error 100 1 2 110 3 115 4 120 If naïve method is used for the above data, what is the error for period 4, e(4)? Hint: You have to calculate he forecasted value before you can calculate the forecast error. 10 15 can not be determined

calculate a 3 month moving average for the following monthly sales data what is the forecast for the 7th month Month   sales forecast jan        120 feb        150 mar       130 apr         160 may       180 jun         170 july

QUESTION 3 Annual Fund Returns Over the Past 10 Years Year Return (%) 4.5 6.0 1.5 -20 3 4 15 6 7 19 20 0.0 45 3.5 2.5 5.5 4.0 10 Calculate the geometric mean retur over the 10 years. Give your answer in percent, rounded to two decimal places, so in the format X.XX. Hint, the number zero is not used in the correct answer

Jan '20 0.68 Feb '20 0.76 Mar '20 1.6 Apr '20 1.47 May '20 0.98 Jun '20 1.18 Jul '20 3.59 Aug '20 3.33 Sept '20 4.31 Oct '20 3.84 Nov '20 6.97 Dec '20 7.7 Using data above please provide one qualitative and two quantitative (Simple and weighted moving average) monthly forecasts  in the United States for the holiday season in 2021

Sales in a company are $188 million in 2009 and increase $208 million in 2010. Compute the percentage increase in sales using the usual formula Compare this value to the approximation The approximation performs (1) percentage change increases. 100 x (1) O better (2) O deteriorates O worst O improves 100 x 100 x (Sales 2010 - Sales 2009) Sales 2009 100 x [In (Sales2010) -In (Sales2009)] (Sales 2010 - Sales2009) Sales 2009 100 x [In (Sales 2010) -In (Sales2009)] = [ (Express your response as a percentage and round to three places) Now, assume that sales in a company are $188 million in 2009 and increase $264 million in 2010. = (Sales2010 - Sales 2009) Sales 2009 % % % 100 x [In (Sales 2010) -In (Sales 2009)] = [ (Express your response as a percentage and round to three places) % when the change is small. The quality of the approximation (2). as the

Consider the following time series data: Month 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Value 24 13 20 12 19 23 15   Compute MSE using the most recent value as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 8? Compute MSE using the average of all the data available as the forecast for the next period. What is the forecast for month 8? Which method appears to provide the better forecast?

The Carbondale Hospital is considering the purchase of a new ambulance. The decision will rest partly on the anticipated mileage to be driven next year. The miles driven during the past 5 years are as follows: Year Mileage 1 3,050 a) Using a 2-year moving average, the forecast for year 6 = miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). b) If a 2-year moving average is used to make the forecast, the MAD based on this = miles (round your response to one decimal place). (Hint: You will have only 3 years of matched data.) c) The forecast for year 6 using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.45 and 0.55 (the weight of 0.55 is for the most recent period) = miles (round your response to the nearest whole number). The MAD for the forecast developed using a weighted 2-year moving average with weights of 0.45 and 0.55 = d) Using exponential smoothing with a = 0.20 and the forecast for year 1 being 3,050, the forecast for year 6 = miles (round your response to one decimal…

CBOOK Problem 6-19 Consider the following time series. 1 1 2 3 4 Y, 120 110 100 96 5 94 6 92 7 88

Paw Patrol Inc. manufactures toys for kids from 1 to 10 years old. The summary of toy sales by month in 2017 and 2018 is as follows: Dt April May 2018 18600 Period Demand 18716 June 19235 2017 September 19400 July August 19500 October 18300 19753 November 17200 September 18320 December 14998 October 17652 2018 January February March 19800 November 16200 19555 December 15563 19800 What is the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), when using the weighted 4-period moving average technique? Use weights of 0.6, 0.2, 0.1, and 0.1 for the most recent period, the second most recent period, the third most recent period, and the fourth most recent period, respectively. O 5445 O 1256 O 1555 O 4450 O 1140

Director Very Busy needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so he needs to forecast the number of employees who will seek appointments. The director has gathered the following time series data recently Period Employee Appointments 4 weeks ago 95 3 weeks ago 80 2 week ago 65 last week 50

When you solve full question I will give Thumb up ?

you have been given the following actual and forecasted sales data for five monthsMonth  Actual sales  Forecasted sales  e   |e|   e^2   absolute % errorJan     200               210Feb     220               215Mar     250               240apr     300               290May     280               300Total Fill out the above table to calculate the mean absolute error, mean square error, and mean absolute percentage error. (do not use excel)

(Ch7) If the mean time between in-flight aircraft engine shutdowns is 12,500 operating hours, what is the 90 percentile on the distribution of the number of hours until the next shutdown? (hint: convert the mean time between events to the mean events per hour λ, then apply inverse exponential) Question 7Select one: a. 20,180 hours   b. 18,724 hours c. 23,733 hours d. 28,782 hours

econometrics

Campus Advising needs to allocate time this week for office appointments, so she needs te forecast the number of students who will seek appointments. The advisor has gathered th following time series data recently: Period Student Appointments 4 weeks ago 95 3 weeks ago 80 2 weeks ago 65 Last week 50 Answer the next two questions (questions 11 and 12), based on this information. 11. What is this week's forecast for student appointments using a three-week moving average? a) 80 b) 50 c) 52 d) 65 e) 78

Use simple exponential smoothing with a = 0.3 to forecast bike sales for September through December. Assume that the forecast for September was 60 units. a) What will be the forecast for December? b) Calculate the MAD. Last saved 11:13:58 AM budy Questions Filter (25) Month September October November December F3 X C O Search P Bike Sales 54 72 60 ? Y

Calculate the mean for each of the 4 quarters, stating the formula you would use for determining the mean for the first quarter’s forecasted revenue.

The investment multipier is 2 of the country now find the value of MPC.

these are the dataset College Distance,Dist,Ed0.7,122.2,120.3,160,123.6,121,140.1,150.5,140.3,160.4,121,127.5,120.5,121.8,122.5,141.7,160.5,161,120.5,153,163.6,135,162,120.3,123,121.3,140.5,163.5,162,153.2,120.7,130.5,130.7,130.3,121,121.5,121.2,166.5,120.7,135,152.5,150.1,160,161,120.5,130.2,160.4,132.6,151,130.3,120.5,150.5,171.5,174,124,140,131.5,120.1,122,120.3,160.1,144,163,122.2,120.1,120.7,150.3,153.3,150.1,130.7,153.5,122.6,125,157,120.8,120.3,150.8,130.5,120.5,150.8,131.5,120.3,120.3,1515,164.5,142.5,131.1,121.5,120.3,170,120.1,174,125.6,124.5,130.2,152.5,1216,120.5,130.2,122,16

Consider the following asset with it's returns over the last 3 years. The arithmetic mean is 8% 1yr 2yr Зуг 8% 10% 6% What is the geometric mean? (Be sure to go out at least 4 decimal places.) Respuesta:

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ITY SCENARIO 2-5 The following are the duration in minutes of a sample of long-distance phone calls made within the continental United States reported by one long-distance carrier. Relative Time (in Minutes) O but less than 5 5 but less than 10 10 but less than 15 15 but less than 20 20 but less than 25 25 but less than 30 30 or more Referring to Scenario 2-5, if 10 calls lasted 30 minutes or more, how many calls lasted less than 5 minutes? Select one: Frequency 0.37 0.22 0.15 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.02 OA. 500 B. 10 OC. 295 D. 185

2. Montyboy Pet Shop ships boxed can dogfood anywhere in the country. Using the following information, forecast the shipments for the first four months. Seasonal Relative Month January February March 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.7 The monthly forecast equation being used is: Yt = 402 + 3t April May June Where: to = January last year Yt = number of shipments Month July August September October November December Seasonal Relative 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.1 1.4 Question: Determine the trend amounts for the first four months of the next year assuming January, t=24; February, t=25; etc. Note: Round answers to whole numbers.

The following table shows the total sales, in thousands, since a new game was brought to market. Month 0 2 4 9 8 10 12 14 Sales 0 2.2 5.4 9.5 19.1 27.2 32.9 35.4 (a) Plot this data and determine the point of diminishing returns. Enter the closest value in the table. The point of diminishing returns occurs i months after the game is introduced. (b) Predict total possible sales of this game, using the point of diminishing returns from the table. Total sales≈ i

Historical demand for Peeps is as displayed in the table. Month Demand January 11 February 18 March 31 April 39 May 44 June 53 July 67 August 82 September 96 Develop forecasts from June through October using these techniques: Holt's method with alpha=0.2 and beta=0.1. For Holt's model, the level and trend for May are assumed to be 44 and 12. Judge which forecast method is the best based on MAD.

these are the dataset:  College Distance,Dist,Ed0.7,122.2,120.3,160,123.6,121,140.1,150.5,140.3,160.4,121,127.5,120.5,121.8,122.5,141.7,160.5,161,120.5,153,163.6,135,162,120.3,123,121.3,140.5,163.5,162,153.2,120.7,130.5,130.7,130.3,121,121.5,121.2,166.5,120.7,135,152.5,150.1,160,161,120.5,130.2,160.4,132.6,151,130.3,120.5,150.5,171.5,174,124,140,131.5,120.1,122,120.3,160.1,144,163,122.2,120.1,120.7,150.3,153.3,150.1,130.7,153.5,122.6,125,157,120.8,120.3,150.8,130.5,120.5,150.8,131.5,120.3,120.3,1515,164.5,142.5,131.1,121.5,120.3,170,120.1,174,125.6,124.5,130.2,152.5,1216,120.5,130.2,122,16   *answer there is incorrect

Bill's Bookstore is tracking its monthly demand for textbooks and has seen the following demand pattern. Historical forecasts are also included. MONTH FORECASTED DEMAND ACTUAL DEMAND April 150 165 May 220 210 June 215 200 July 245 250 August 205 225 Assess Bill's performance for the forecast in the table above using the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD). Only use the data for the months of April through August to calculate the MAD.

Two independent methods of forecasting based on judgment and experience have been prepared each month for the past 10 months. The forecasts and actual sales are as follows: Month Sales Forecast 1 Forecast 2 1 770 771 769 2 789 785 787 3 794 790 792 4 780 784 798 5 768 770 774 6 772 768 770 7 760 761 759 8 775 771 775 9 786 784 788 10 790 788 788 (a). Compute the MSE and MAD for each forecast. Does either forecast seem superior? Explain. (b). Compute MAPE for each forecast.

Plastic cups are made by forming of raw plastic. The price of plastic is 4.500 OMR per kg and the price of plastic cups is 13 OMR per 1000 cups. Plant requires differ- ent machine which cost about 50,000 OMR, but the machines has to be imported, after paying 25% as customs duty. On a graph paper, draw a freehand graph and represent all important parameters. Due to increase in plastic price, the break-even quantity has increased by 10%. Find out the new plastic price?

Compute to three decimal places. (See attached) Initial values are:      PX = $9500     PY = $10000   I = $15000      A = $170000   W = 160 This function is:        Qs = 89830 -40PS +20PX +15PY +2I +.001A +10W