Anthony King M2.3 System Reliability and Modeling.docx

1 Module 2.3: Systems Reliability and Modeling Anthony King College of Aeronautics, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University SYSE 515: Math Applications in Systems Engineering Federica Robinson-Bryant Instructor October 24, 2023

2 Module 2.3: Systems Reliability and Modeling 1. Interpreting a Fault Tree – A fault tree analysis is a top-down approach to failure analysis that begins at the system level (Hoyland & Rausand, 2004). By analyzing Figure 1 it can be determined that an engine can fail from various channels of specific problems. There are two symbols in this example that are critical in determining the probability of failure. These are called “and” gates and “or” gates (Ayyub & McCuen, 2011). The crescent moon shaped symbols under all the events that are within the rectangular boxes are the “or” gates. These symbols mean that the output event occurs if any one of the input events occur. For example, the “Fuel problems” failure will occur if either the exhaustion or contamination failures occur (Richardson & Wortman, 2018). These “or” gates are computed by the additive law of probability (Ayyub & McCuen, 2011). The symbol directly under the “Overheated Wire” basic event looks very similar to the “or” gate but has a straight line at the bottom instead of a curved line. This is the “and” gate, which follows the multiplicative law of probability (Ayyub & McCuen, 2011). This symbol means that the output event occurs only if all the input events occur simultaneously (Richardson & Wortman, 2018). After reviewing this fault tree analysis, we can conclude that the probabilities of exhaustion and contamination would be added together, broken valve and broken connecting rod would be added together, and broken fuel pumps will be added to the product of excessive current on system wiring and power applied to system for extended time. After all those totals are added together, then the probability of failure will be revealed.

3 Figure 1 Fault Tree Diagram Note. ERAU Module 2.3 Assignment: Systems Reliability and Modeling Activity 1, 2023, ( https://erau.instructure.com/courses/164517/assignments/3296367?module_item_id=10062929 ) 2. Solve for Overheated Wire and Mechanic Failure – Figure 2 Calculations for Activity 2

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