FIN 3010 quiz Financial Modelling Answers

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Financial Statement Analysis: FIN 3010 Quiz: Financial Statement Modelling Answers 1. B is correct.   Operating (EBIT) margin is a pre-tax profitability measure that can be useful in the peer comparison of companies in countries with different tax structures. Archway’s two main competitors are located in different countries with significantly different tax structures; therefore, a pre-tax measure is better than an after-tax measure, such as ROIC. The current ratio is a liquidity measure, not a profitability measure. 2 A is correct.   Porter’s five forces framework in Exhibit 1 describes an industry with high barriers to entry, high customer switching costs (suggesting a low threat of substitutes), and a specialized product (suggesting low bargaining power of buyers). Furthermore, the primary production inputs from the large group of suppliers are considered basic commodities (suggesting low bargaining power of suppliers). These favorable industry characteristics will likely enable Archway to pass along price increases and generate above-average returns on invested capital. 3 A is correct.   The current favorable characteristics of the industry (high barriers to entry, low bargaining power of suppliers and buyers, low threat of substitutes), coupled with Archway’s dominant market share position, will likely lead to Archway’s profit margins being at least equal to or greater than current levels over the forecast horizon. 4 C is correct.  The calculation of Archway’s gross profit margin for 2020, which reflects the industry-wide 8% inflation on COGS, is calculated as follows: Revenue growth 1.85% COGS increase 4.76% Forecasted revenue (Base revenue = 100) 101.85 Forecasted COGS (Base COGS = 30) 31.43 Forecasted gross profit 70.42 Forecasted gross profit margin 69.14% Revenue growth = (1 + Price increase for revenue) × (1 + Volume growth) – 1= (1.05) × (0.97) – 1= 1.85%.COGS increase = (1 + Price increase for COGS) × (1 + Volume growth) – 1= (1.08) × (0.97) – 1= 4.76%.Forecasted revenue = Base revenue × Revenue growth increase= 100 × 1.0185= 101.85.Forecasted COGS = Base COGS × COGS increase= 30 × 1.0476= 31.43.Forecasted gross profit = Forecasted revenue – Forecasted COGS= 101.85 – 31.43= 70.42.Forecasted gross profit margin = Forecasted gross profit/Forecasted revenue= 70.42/101.85= 69.14%.
5 C is correct.   French is using a bottom-up approach to forecast Archway’s working capital accounts by using the company’s historical efficiency ratios to project future performance. 6 C is correct.   If the future growth or profitability of a company is likely to be lower than the historical average (in this case, because of a potential technological development), then the target multiple should reflect a discount to the historical multiple to reflect this difference in growth and/or profitability. If a multiple is used to derive the terminal value of a company, the choice of the multiple should be consistent with the long-run expectations for growth and required return. French tells Wright he believes that such a technological development could have an adverse impact on Archway beyond the forecast horizon. 7. B is correct.   Forecasting a single scenario would not be appropriate given the high degree of uncertainty and range of potential outcomes for companies in this industry. 8 C is correct.  Economies of scale are a situation in which average costs decrease with increasing sales volume. Chrome’s gross margins have been increasing with net sales. Gross margins that increase with sales levels provide evidence of economies of scale, assuming that higher levels of sales reflect increased unit sales. Gross margin more directly reflects the cost of sales than does profit margin. Metric 2017 2018 2019 Net sales $46.8 $50.5 $53.9 Gross profit 28.6 32.1 35.1 Gross margin (gross profit/net sales) 61.11% 63.56 % 65.12% 9 A is correct.   A bottom-up approach for developing inputs to equity valuation models begins at the level of the individual company or a unit within the company. By modeling net sales using the average annual growth rate, Candidate A is using a bottom-up approach. B and C are incorrect because both Candidate B and Candidate C are using a top-down approach, which begins at the level of the overall economy. 10 B is correct.   A top-down approach usually begins at the level of the overall economy. Candidate B assumes industry sales will grow at the same rate as nominal GDP but that Chrome will have a 2-percentage-point decline in market share. A and C are incorrect because Candidate B is not using any elements of a bottom-up approach; therefore, a hybrid approach is not being employed 11 C is correct.  Candidate C assumes that the 2020 gross margin will increase by 20 bps from 2019 and that net sales will grow at 50 bps slower than nominal GDP (nominal GDP = Real GDP +
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