FIN 3010 quiz Financial Modelling Answers

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Financial Statement Analysis: FIN 3010 Quiz: Financial Statement Modelling Answers 1. B is correct.   Operating (EBIT) margin is a pre-tax profitability measure that can be useful in the peer comparison of companies in countries with different tax structures. Archway’s two main competitors are located in different countries with significantly different tax structures; therefore, a pre-tax measure is better than an after-tax measure, such as ROIC. The current ratio is a liquidity measure, not a profitability measure. 2 A is correct.   Porter’s five forces framework in Exhibit 1 describes an industry with high barriers to entry, high customer switching costs (suggesting a low threat of substitutes), and a specialized product (suggesting low bargaining power of buyers). Furthermore, the primary production inputs from the large group of suppliers are considered basic commodities (suggesting low bargaining power of suppliers). These favorable industry characteristics will likely enable Archway to pass along price increases and generate above-average returns on invested capital. 3 A is correct.   The current favorable characteristics of the industry (high barriers to entry, low bargaining power of suppliers and buyers, low threat of substitutes), coupled with Archway’s dominant market share position, will likely lead to Archway’s profit margins being at least equal to or greater than current levels over the forecast horizon. 4 C is correct.  The calculation of Archway’s gross profit margin for 2020, which reflects the industry-wide 8% inflation on COGS, is calculated as follows: Revenue growth 1.85% COGS increase 4.76% Forecasted revenue (Base revenue = 100) 101.85 Forecasted COGS (Base COGS = 30) 31.43 Forecasted gross profit 70.42 Forecasted gross profit margin 69.14% Revenue growth = (1 + Price increase for revenue) × (1 + Volume growth) – 1= (1.05) × (0.97) – 1= 1.85%.COGS increase = (1 + Price increase for COGS) × (1 + Volume growth) – 1= (1.08) × (0.97) – 1= 4.76%.Forecasted revenue = Base revenue × Revenue growth increase= 100 × 1.0185= 101.85.Forecasted COGS = Base COGS × COGS increase= 30 × 1.0476= 31.43.Forecasted gross profit = Forecasted revenue – Forecasted COGS= 101.85 – 31.43= 70.42.Forecasted gross profit margin = Forecasted gross profit/Forecasted revenue= 70.42/101.85= 69.14%.
5 C is correct.   French is using a bottom-up approach to forecast Archway’s working capital accounts by using the company’s historical efficiency ratios to project future performance. 6 C is correct.   If the future growth or profitability of a company is likely to be lower than the historical average (in this case, because of a potential technological development), then the target multiple should reflect a discount to the historical multiple to reflect this difference in growth and/or profitability. If a multiple is used to derive the terminal value of a company, the choice of the multiple should be consistent with the long-run expectations for growth and required return. French tells Wright he believes that such a technological development could have an adverse impact on Archway beyond the forecast horizon. 7. B is correct.   Forecasting a single scenario would not be appropriate given the high degree of uncertainty and range of potential outcomes for companies in this industry. 8 C is correct.  Economies of scale are a situation in which average costs decrease with increasing sales volume. Chrome’s gross margins have been increasing with net sales. Gross margins that increase with sales levels provide evidence of economies of scale, assuming that higher levels of sales reflect increased unit sales. Gross margin more directly reflects the cost of sales than does profit margin. Metric 2017 2018 2019 Net sales $46.8 $50.5 $53.9 Gross profit 28.6 32.1 35.1 Gross margin (gross profit/net sales) 61.11% 63.56 % 65.12% 9 A is correct.   A bottom-up approach for developing inputs to equity valuation models begins at the level of the individual company or a unit within the company. By modeling net sales using the average annual growth rate, Candidate A is using a bottom-up approach. B and C are incorrect because both Candidate B and Candidate C are using a top-down approach, which begins at the level of the overall economy. 10 B is correct.   A top-down approach usually begins at the level of the overall economy. Candidate B assumes industry sales will grow at the same rate as nominal GDP but that Chrome will have a 2-percentage-point decline in market share. A and C are incorrect because Candidate B is not using any elements of a bottom-up approach; therefore, a hybrid approach is not being employed 11 C is correct.  Candidate C assumes that the 2020 gross margin will increase by 20 bps from 2019 and that net sales will grow at 50 bps slower than nominal GDP (nominal GDP = Real GDP +
Inflation = 1.6% + 2.0% = 3.6%). Accordingly, the 2020 forecasted cost of sales is USD19.27 million, rounded to USD19.3 million. Metric Calculation Result 2020 gross margin = 2019 gm + 20 bps USD35.1/USD53.9 = 65.12% + 0.20% = 65.32% 2020 CoS/net sales = 100% – gross margin 100% – 65.32% = 34.68% 2020 net sales = 2019 net sales × (1 + Nominal GDP – 0.50%) USD53.9 million × (1 + 0.036 – 0.005) = USD53.9 million × 1.031 = USD55.57 million 2020 cost of sales = 2020 net sales × CoS/net sales USD55.57 × 34.68% = USD19.27 million 12. B is correct.  Candidate A assumes that the 2020 SG&A/net sales will be the same as the average SG&A/net sales over the 2017–19 time period and that net sales will grow at the annual average growth rate in net sales over the 2017–19 time period. Accordingly, the 2020 forecasted SG&A expenses are USD25.5 million. Metric Calculation Result Average SG&A/net sales, 2017–2019* (41.24% + 44.55% + 46.57%)/3 = 44.12% Average annual growth sales in net sales, 2017–2019** (7.91% + 6.73%)/2 = 7.32% 2020 net sales = 2019 net sales × (1 + Average annual growth rate in net sales) USD53.9 million × 1.0732 = $57.85 million 2020 SG&A = 2020 net sales × Average SG&A/net sales USD57.85 million × 44.12% = $25.52 million 2017 2018 2019 Net Sales USD46.8 USD50.5 USD53.9 SG&A expenses USD19.3 USD22.5 USD25.1 SG&A-to-sales ratio 41.24% 44.55% 46.57% Year Calculation 2018 (USD50.5/USD46.8) – 1 = 7.91% 2019 (USD53.9/USD50.5) – 1 = 6.73% 13.
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A is correct.   In forecasting financing costs, such as interest expense, the debt/equity structure of a company is a key determinant. Accordingly, a method that recognizes the relationship between the income statement account (interest expense) and the balance sheet account (debt) would be a preferable method for forecasting interest expense when compared with methods that forecast based solely on the income statement account. By using the effective interest rate (interest expense divided by average gross debt), Candidate A is taking the debt/equity structure into account. B and C are incorrect because Candidate B (who forecasts 2020 interest expense to be the same as 2019 interest expense) and Candidate C (who forecasts 2020 interest expense to be the same as the 2017–19 average interest expense) are not taking the balance sheet into consideration. 14 B is correct.   Base rates refer to attributes of a reference class and base rate neglect is ignoring such class information in favor of specific information. By incorporating industry data, Candidate B is seeking to mitigate this behavioral bias. 15 A is correct.   The management of the company and investor relations of a competitor are almost certainly biased in favor of expecting strong growth for the markets they participate in. To evaluate the forecast, C should seek more independent sources and balance the biased sources with sources biased in the opposite direction or an analyst who is more skeptical.