Lab 8-2

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Dec 6, 2023

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Name: __________________________ Fall 2023 Laboratory Investigation 8 Atmospheric carbon, temperatures and climate change PART 2 3. QUESTIONS 3.1 (L1) What is infrared thermal energy? ( 0.5 pt) 3.2 (L1) How does the greenhouse effect make the atmosphere warmer? (0.5 pt) 3.3 (L1) Name the three most abundant greenhouse gases. (0.5 pt) 3.4 (L2) If carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is less effective at warming the atmosphere than methane, why is carbon dioxide contributing more to global warming? (0.5 pt).

GEOG 1114 Lab 8. Atmospheric carbon, temperatures, and climate change 4. PRACTICE AND APPLY YOUR KNOWLEDGE Hypothesis-based exercise regarding the drivers of global temperatures In lab 1, you learned about the scientific method and hypothesis-based research. Now, you are going to practice what you learned in that lab with climate change research. In this exercise, we are going to select three climatic forcings and compare them to the increase of temperatures from 1840 (the beginning of the industrial revolution) to 2016 (Fig. 4.1). Figure 4.1 Temperature anomalies 1840-2016. Source: NASA. Available at. https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/ The climatic forcings we are going to use are insolation (orbital forcing), sunspots (solar forcing), volcanic ashes (volcanic forcing), and carbon dioxide emissions (greenhouse forcing). These are the three hypotheses you will test: H1. CO 2 concentration is causing global temperatures to rise H2. Orbital forcing is causing global temperatures to rise H3. An increase in solar irradiance (sunspots) is causing temperatures to rise. H4. Fewer volcanic eruptions are causing temperatures to rise. 2

GEOG 1114 Lab 8. Atmospheric carbon, temperatures, and climate change The data you need has been obtained from NASA and NOAA. Some of the data have been obtained with instruments in meteorological stations or from cores drilled in ice caps. Other data are obtained by satellites or by powerful telescopes and processed with robust mathematical models. The data has been put together in an attached Excel file. However, to make this lab faster, we have extracted the graphs and placed them in the appendix at the end of this work sheet. There you are going to find the data trend for each of the climatic forcings that you will need to test the hypotheses stated above. To test the hypotheses, you will analyze the data (graphs and numbers) of temperatures, CO 2 , solar irradiance, sunspots. You will also look at the graph of volcanic eruptions by volcanic explosivity index (VEI). The ones that impact temperature (makes them cooler) are those with VEI 5 or higher. Compare the trends in each graph and find the one that matches the temperatures. Now, proceed to answer the following questions: 4.1 (L3) Considering the evidence contained in the graphs, which of the four hypotheses stated above (H1, H2, H3, or H4) is true? Explain why. (2 pt) 4.2 (L2) A high value of insolation means in this case that the incidence of the sun’s rays is more direct on the earth’s surface, thus bringing more energy to the earth’s surface. Accordingly, if the value of insolation (orbital forcing) has a trend to diminish, this means that: ___________ (1 pt) [Choose only one] a) the earth should be cooling down b) the earth is warming up c) there should be no change in temperature up or down 3

GEOG 1114 Lab 8. Atmospheric carbon, temperatures, and climate change 4.3 (L2) The incidence of highly explosive volcanic eruptions causes more aerosols in the air, which reduces temperatures. In contrast, a decline in high explosive eruptions would lead to an increase in temperatures. Based on the data you had in the graphs. Would you say that volcanic eruptions have influenced temperatures in the past 50 years? Explain why. (1 pt) Global vs. regional temperatures The trends that really matter to understand ice melting, sea level change, and all the other effects of the warming of our planet are “global temperatures.” The graph of temperature anomalies in the excel file is based on averages from all around the world’s surface, including oceans. People in the U.S. sometimes have difficulty understanding that climate change is happening because the warmest years in the U.S. do not always coincide with those globally. Conditions vary across the globe and some parts of the globe are warming faster than others. In the following exercises we will compare the global temperature increase with the US , and the State of Oklahoma . Go to the NCEI-NOAA website: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global Follow the instructions below: 4.4 On the menu, select Globe > Time Series . Then, on Timescale, select “12-Month”, and on Month select “December”, which means that the temperature will be the average for all months from January-December. Change the start and end years to 1900 and 2022, respectively. For Region , select “Global,” and for Surface select “Land and ocean.” Then, on the right panel, select Display Trend and choose the same period, 1900-2000 and choose the trend by “decade”. Now click on Plot . You will see a graph and on the upper right corner you will see the rate by decade. Log this value in the first column of the table below. Then identify the warmest year on record for the period 1900-2022 and log it on the table. Repeat the same procedure for the periods 1900-1975, 1975-2000, and 2000-2022 and fill in the rest of the fields in the table. (2 pts) 4

GEOG 1114 Lab 8. Atmospheric carbon, temperatures, and climate change Table 1: Global temperature trends and warmest years on record. 1900-2022 trend in ºC /decade 1900-1975 in ºC /decade 1975-2000 trend in ºC /decade 2000-2022 trend in ºC /decade Warmest year of this period Warmest year of this period Warmest year of this period Warmest year of this period 4.5 Now select Nation > National Time Series . Then, repeat the same steps. Select “Average Temperature” in Parameter , “12-monthl” in Time scale , and 1900 and 2022 as the start and end years, respectively. Then on the right-side panel, select Display Base Period and Display Trend for the same period (1900-2000). Enter the information in the table below. Then do the same for the other trends and their warmest years. (2 pts) Table 2: United States national temperature change trends and warmest years on record 1900-2022 trend in ºC /decade 1900-1975 in ºC /decade 1975-2000 trend in ºC /decade 2000-2022 trend in ºC /decade Warmest year of this period Warmest year of this period Warmest year of this period Warmest year of this period Note: One degree Celsius is 1.8 times larger than one degree Fahrenheit. So, to convert ºF to ºC, you divide the value by 1.8, e.g., 0.98 ºF/decade = 0.54 ºC/decade. 4.6 Repeat the same procedure but at the State > Statewide Time Series level, for the state of Oklahoma Again, obtain the trends and warmest years for the same periods. (2 pts) Table 3: Oklahoma temperature change trends and warmest years on record. 1900-2022 trend in ºC /decade 1900-1975 in ºC /decade 1975-2000 trend in ºC /decade 2000-2022 trend in ºC /decade Warmest year of this period Warmest year of this period Warmest year of this period Warmest year of this period 5

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