The Threat of a Tornado in a Rural Community in the Midwest United States - Nov

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Jacksonville State University *

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Apr 3, 2024

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1 The Threat of a Tornado in a Rural Community in the Midwest United States Dorothy West Jacksonville State university EM505 - Foundations of Emergency Management Dr. Scott Manning November 5, 2023

2 Abstract In this paper, we will show the historical threat of tornadoes in rural communities of the Midwest United States and use this information, along with other factors that include terrain, weather instability, climate change, and other data, to prove the possibility of future tornadoes in the rural communities of the Midwest. We are also showing the importance of creating a disaster plan along with the importance of developing a disaster planning committee. During the paper, the importance of disaster mitigation is shown, along with an explanation of the importance of coordination, cooperation, and communication during disaster response. And how the incident command center aids in this. Disaster recovery and recovery committees will also be touched on. Keywords: Tornado, Midwest, disaster planning, climate control

3 The Threat of a Tornado in a Rural Community in the Midwest United States According to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), a tornado is a “narrow, violently rotating column of air that extends from the base of a thunderstorm to the ground and is visible only if it forms a condensation funnel made up of water droplets, dust, and debris”(U.S. Department of Homeland Security, n.d., para. 1). A tornado accompanies a thunderstorm if the conditions are favorable. A tornado needs several things to fall in place at the right time. They include warm air (usually from the Gulf of Mexico for the Midwest states), cold air (from Canada), a strong jet stream (a fast-moving current of air), a front (when cold air meets warm air), and an unstable atmosphere (Agard, 2023). Once a tornado is formed, it can move at 10-20 mph, but the winds inside it can exceed 300 mph. The severity of a tornado is rated using the Enhanced Fujita Scale, which places a tornado from weakest to strongest, starting with EFU and going up to EF5; the rating is based on wind speed. The greater the wind speed of the tornado, the more significant the damage will be, with EF5 causing the most damage. The Midwest United States is known to be susceptible to tornadoes due to its terrain, which is low and flat or “rolling” and up to 5000 feet above sea level (Sage-Advices, 2023). The Midwest consists of several states, including Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin (The Editors of Encyclopedia Britannica, 2023). Kansas, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Missouri, and South Dakota are in the top 10 states for having the most average yearly tornados (U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2007). Still, most of these usually register as EF2 or below because they are not very strong. Iowas, Kansas, Missouri, and Nebraska are the four most prone states in the

4 Midwest and are included in the “Tornado Alley” region. The climate in the Midwest is usually very humid, with various temperatures varying from summer to winter (Sage-Advices, 2023). Tornadic History of the Midwest United States “Tornado Alley” is an area in the Midwest United States that includes Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Nebraska. It also includes Texas, a southern state (Earth Professor, 2023). The deadliest tornado in U.S. history is the “Tri-State” Tornado in 1925 (Blakemore, 2023). Although they did not have the equipment to measure data and results like we do today, it is believed that the Tornado was an F5. Although it is believed to have started small, Some observers believe it got as wide as a mile, and it is thought that the winds exceeded 300mph. The tornado formed in Missouri, then crossed state lines into Illinois, and then on to Indians, hence the name. I killed almost 700 people and destroyed much of everything in its path. At this time, the word tornado was considered taboo and, at one point in the late 1800s, was outlawed. The government believed that meteorology study was so new that accurate tornado prediction was not possible, and even if it was, the community could not handle it without panicking. There have been many other deadly tornadoes in the Midwest. In June 1953, a tornado hit Flint, Michigan, killing 115 individuals (WorldAtlas, 2023). New Richmond, Wisconsin, experienced a tornado in 1899 that killed 117. The infamous Joplin, Missouri, tornado killed 161 individuals in May 2011. A tornado killed 255 individuals in St. Louis, Missouri, in May 1896. The Threat of Future Tornadoes in the Midwest U.S. The Midwest is prone to tornado outbreaks, multiple tornados from one system. In 1999, in what is known as the Great Plains Tornado Outbreak, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas saw over 70 tornados (U.S. Department of Homeland Security, 2007). In 2003, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Missouri saw an outbreak of over 80 tornadoes. Many of these don't get very big, but even small

5 tornados can do damage. Tornados love the humid weather of the Midwest, along with the flat terrain that makes it easy for tornados to travel. According to this FEMA report, from 1950 until 2005, Iowa experienced 1,989 tornadoes with 67 deaths, Kansas experienced 3,061 tornadoes with 214 deaths, Missouri experienced 1,604 tornadoes with 200 deaths, and Nebraska experienced 2,344 with 54 deaths. Over the years, the number of tornadoes in general has increased. Some of the increase is due to possible inaccurate records in the late 1800s and early 1900s. Doppler was used in the 1960s and continued to develop and grow into the 1970s, but it did not become an active part of the meteorology world and a vital forecasting tool until the mid-1980s (NOAA, 2004). Jonathan Overpeck, a scientist from the University of Michigan, believes that today's climate change bringing in warmer weather combined with the warmer temperatures of the Gulf of Mexico, which travel north to meet with the colder air, will continue to increase thunderstorm and tornado intensity, especially in the colder months and will continue to move further north as time goes by (Samenow et al., 2021). Some numbers show tornadic activity has decreased in the Midwest since 1970, possibly due to the drier climate, and has increased in the south and southeast United States (Hirschlag, 2022). According to the information above, Tornado location, season, and intensity change. This is partially due to climate change, but there is no set reason for Tornadoes being so unpredictable, even with the improved weather prediction equipment. The information above, although reported to be changing year to year, leaves me to believe that the probability of a future tornado occurring in the Midwest United States is high. Much of the Midwest is rural because it is a large agricultural area. This means lower populations and larger areas of flat land. With the warm weather from the south and the colder weather from the north meeting over the

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