SCM 301 –
Introduction to Supply Chain Management LESSON 6 CLASSWORK NAME: _______________________________ PSU USERID: ___________________ Part 1 Find Problem 2(a) Page 464 of your textbook then solve the problem below: Given the series of demand data below calculate the forecasts for periods 7 through 11 using moving average models
with n=2, n=4, and n=6. Period (t) Demand (D
t
) F
t
= Moving Average (n=2) F
t
= Moving Average (n=4) F
t
= Moving Average (n=6) 1 40 2 33 3 56 4 43 5 23 6 45 7 38 34.0 41.8 40.0 8 40 41.5 37.3 39.7 9 29 39.0 36.5 40.8 10 40 34.5 38.0 36.3 11 34.5 36.8 35.8 Part 2 Find Problem 9(a)(b)(c) Page 465 of your textbook then solve the problem below: A ski repair shop at a resort in Colorado sells replacement poles each season. The shop needs to develop a forecast of next season’s sales so that they can place an order for poles with their supplier well in advance of the beginning of the season. Sales data for the past five years are shown below. Period (t) Demand (D
t
) (a) F
t
= Moving Average (n=5) (b)
F
t
= Weighted M.A. (n=5, w
1
=0.1, w
2
=0.1, w
3
=0.2, w
4
=0.3, w
5
=0.3) (c)
F
t
= Exponential Smoothing (F
1
=380 and
=0.2 1 375 F
1 = 380.0 2 395 F
2
= 379.0 3 360 F
3
= 382.2 4 400 F
4
= 377.8 5 380 F
5
= 382.2 Next Season ??? F
6
= 382 F
6
= 383 F
6
= 381.8
