Assignment Follow Up Dilpreet Singh

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University of Kansas *

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427

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Industrial Engineering

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Feb 20, 2024

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Assignment Follow-Up Dilpreet Singh 1) Open the document with the answers provided by Professor Hillmer and read through his answers. Compare the answers that Professor Hillmer came up with for each problem to the answers you obtained. 1. A) For the first question, my answer was the data exhibits seasonality. It would be useful to try to discover the cause of this seasonally. The last point in the graph is a special cause because it is much higher than any other values for June. It would be a good idea to find out what is different about June compared to the other months of June in the time frame. Whereas professor Hilmer’s answer mentioned This plot exhibits seasonality, the sales for the month of October are higher than the other months each year. The last month is a particularly large value since this is not an October. B) I answered - The seasonality is easier to identify from the plot with the symbols because the month labeled "j" is always higher than the other months. It is also easier to see that the last month labeled "f" is much higher than the other "f" months. Professor Hilmer answered - The seasonality is easier to identify from the plot with the symbols because the month labeled “j” is always higher than the other months. It is also easier to see that the last month labeled “f” is much higher than the other “f” months. 2 ) I answered - i) There is a downward trend beginning around time period 25. This is a special cause. ii) The plot suggests that the sales declined in the 20 weeks after the contest, thus it looks like the contest was not effective. The sales during the first 20 weeks are nearly constant around 425,000. The sales for weeks 21, 22, and 23 may have increased slightly; however, after these weeks the sales seem to decline until around week 45. The sales appear to level off for the last 5 weeks. From the data in this plot, the contest did not seem to be effective in reducing the decline in news stand sales. Professor Hilmer answerd - The sales during the first 20 weeks is nearly constant around 425,000. The sales for weeks 21, 22, and 23 may have increased slightly; however after these weeks the sales seems to decline until around week 45. The sales appear to level off for the last 5 weeks. From the data in this plot, the contest did not seem to be effective in reducing the decline in news stand sales.

3 ) a) There is a special cause at time 21. Find out what is different about the conditions at time 21 compared to the other times. The appropriate response to a special cause is to find out what occurred at the time the special cause was signaled. In this case, this can be done by comparing the conditions at time 21 to the conditions before and after that time and note what is different. Professor Hilmer - The value at time 21 is quite a bit larger than the other observations, and is evidence of a special cause at this time. B ) I answered - The hospital does not do a good job of meeting the goal. Since the goal is 720 minutes and there are quite a number of instances in which the time waiting is longer than 720 minutes. Professor Hilmer - There are quite a few times in which the waiting time is larger than the goal of 720 minutes, thus it is unlikely that this goal can be met all the time. 4) A) I answered - The upward trend is a special cause. The seasonal pattern is a special cause. The most distinctive feature of this plot is the seasonality, the sales for December each year are higher than the other months and the sales for January and February each year are lower than the other months. The seasonality is evidence of a special cause. Professor Hilmer - The most distinctive feature of this plot is the seasonality, the sales for December each year are higher than the other months and the sales for January and February each year are lower than the other months. The seasonality is evidence of a special cause. B) I answered - A good forecast would be about 160 because this takes into account the trend in the data and the fact that December is always high. If it was required to forecast the value for the next December, two factors should be taken into consideration - there is an increasing trend in the data so the value for the next year should be slightly higher than the value for the current year and the value for every December is higher than the other months. Professor Hilmer - If it was required to forecast the value for the next December, two factors should be taken into consideration – there is an increasing trend in the data so the value for the next year should be slightly higher than the value for the current year and the value for every December is higher than the other months. 5) I answered - There is a special cause at time 19. Management should make a list of the differences between this project and the other 50 projects to find out what is different about this project.

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