FINAL PAPER 202142055 OGBOLE OCHE REVIEWED
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QUESTION: DISCUSS HOW THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE HAS
AFFECTED THE THREAT OF THERMONUCLEAR WAR AND INCLUDE A
DISCUSSION OF HOW NUCLEAR DETERRENCE APPLIES OR DOES NOT APPLY
TO THE CONFLICT.
NAME: OCHE OGBOLE
STUDENT NUMBER: 202142055
DATE: 16/11/2023
INTRODUCTION
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which started in February 2022, has not only developed into
a localised conflict but also into a turning point that is changing the face of global security. The
war's ongoing course raises a terrifying question that will live on throughout history: How has
this geopolitical crisis affected the threat of thermonuclear war? With the help of several
critically analysed articles that break down the complexities of the conflict and the significance
of nuclear deterrence, this essay aims to investigate the complex aspects of this question.
The
battleground is decorated with the backdrop of accepted beliefs and doctrines, most notably the
idea of nuclear deterrence. Nuclear deterrence, which has historically been linked to the Cold
War, uses the real threat of catastrophic retaliation to scare off possible enemies. Nonetheless, the current conflict in Ukraine has evolved into a modern laboratory for evaluating
the effectiveness and constraints of this age-old idea. Reassessing how nuclear weapons
influence the actions of both nuclear and non-nuclear states becomes necessary as the conflict
heats up. The debate surrounding the conflict centres on the idea of nuclear deterrence, which is
closely related to major powers' possession of nuclear weapons. Russia and the other five NPT-
permitted nuclear weapon states have historically used their arsenals as instruments of strategic
influence (Sinovets and Adérito, 2022).
However, the paradoxes arising from Russia's
aggression against Ukraine cast doubt on the conventional wisdom surrounding nuclear
deterrence. The examined articles for this essay analyse the subtleties of these paradoxes,
providing insight into how the architecture of international security is changing.
The conflict in Ukraine has accelerated the conversation about military strategy, extending it into
the fields of political psychology and game theory. As the conflict puts the fundamentals of
nuclear deterrence to the test, leaders' words, gestures, and decision-making procedures are
scrutinised. The carefully examined articles highlight the nuances of the language used by
Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has blurred the lines between conventional and nuclear
warfare by invoking red lines and historical precedents out of a relentless determination.
The
idea of "aggressive actualization" or "offensive deterrence" is introduced by the conflict's
changing terrain (Nye, 2017). The limitations of traditional nuclear deterrence paradigms are
highlighted by Russia's attempts to establish anti-access and area denial capabilities along its
borders, as well as the intricate interplay of political and military strategies. The question that
emerges as non-nuclear states like Ukraine traverse this dangerous terrain is whether the threat of
thermonuclear war can be used as a deterrent or if it will become less effective in the face of
unconventional warfare tactics. In addition, the articles under analysis explore the conflict's geopolitical aftermath, which goes
beyond the battleground. They investigate the use of secondary sanctions and possible economic
deterrence as tools to prevent nuclear-armed states from escalating their conflict to
thermonuclear levels. This economic dimension adds a new dimension to the discussion of
nuclear deterrence by demonstrating how the world economies are intertwined and influence the
actions of countries facing crises.
To understand the complexities of the conflict and its
implications for the evolving threat of thermonuclear war, we will navigate the nuanced analyses
offered by the reviewed articles in the following sections of this essay. This exploration aims to
expose the hitherto unseen dangers and obstacles that the Russia-Ukraine conflict presents to the
precarious balance of international security.
ANALYSIS
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has put the idea of nuclear deterrence under intense scrutiny
and called into question its traditional applications in modern conflicts. Nuclear deterrence,
which has historically relied on major powers having nuclear weapons, requires the legitimacy of
a devastating retaliatory threat to deter possible enemies. The efficacy of nuclear deterrence,
particularly in dissuading states lacking nuclear weapons, is becoming less certain as the conflict
progresses. A complex interplay of geopolitical, strategic, and psychological factors characterises
the nuanced and evolving phenomenon of applying nuclear deterrence in the Russia-Ukraine
conflict. Although the foundation of conventional nuclear deterrence theory is the idea that the
presence of nuclear weapons acts as a credible threat to deter aggression, the way this conflict is
playing out calls into question the ease with which these ideas can be applied.
Russia has significantly lost credibility because of its repeated use of deterrent threats, as
demonstrated by its annexation of Ukrainian territory (Cheng, 2022; Pedraza, 2015). The
annexation of Ukrainian territories is one example of how deterrent threats are frequently used,
which has led to a paradox. For nuclear weapons to be tools of non-use, they must also continue
to be credible threats. But Ukraine's ongoing testing of Russian deterrence has made the threat
less potent, prompting military actions that go beyond the bounds of conventional nuclear
deterrence. Furthermore, T.V. Paul introduced the concept of the "tradition of nuclear non-use,"
which holds that the possibility of nuclear use is undermined by several factors, including
strategic considerations and the destabilising nature of nuclear weapons (Sinovets and Adérito,
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