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Jan 9, 2024

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Citations Chicago Style 17th Edition Times New Roman 12pt font with 1” margins, typewritten in double-spaced format Week One Professor and Class: Threat Realism, or Just Perceived Opinion? Perception is reality, and as threats change the growing concern becomes our reality. Hostile action against an entity is considered a threat by definition. A threat where the perception of the intended threat has the potential to become hostile for action. As a part of the international relations theory of realism, individual nation- states are significant to the international community as each nation-state will make decisions in the interests of its security and economy. In realism, there is no sole power in controlling all nation-states, and each nation-state makes its own decision to cooperate with other nation-states in their beneficial interests. Threat perception holds many factors, which can be determined by geographic location, threat history, and culture. For instance, Syria has seen various conflicts for decades with threats from surrounding countries to internal threats in its own country. Syria has experienced numerous civil rights violations and movements, as well as terrorist threats plaguing the country and displacing hundreds of thousands of Syrians. France colonized Syria in the early 1900s and sided with the Alawites, a politically powerful minority group. The French military assisted the Alawites in establishing a military and trained them on threat prevention against the Sunnis their main enemy, on which their narrative is “kill or be killed.” Syria’s history with realistic threats continued, with more civil wars between Islamic tribes, from the occupation by the Soviet Union to another long civil war in 2011, which continues still today. Because Syria has been in such a long state of threat, their perception of threats is the normalcy of everyday life. Those of us in the United States view the threat perception differently from Syria, as we have not experienced long civil wars, constant terrorist states, and foreign military occupation. The United States is a nation that is heavily guarded with an advanced military, astounding intelligence community, and the latest in threat detection technology. Our perception of outside threats is not an everyday occurrence and is not a part of our threat realism, because we expect our government to provide protection, and prevent any threats from occurring. Donnelly, Jack. 2000. Realism and International Relations. United Kingdom: Cambridge University Press. Forde, Steven. 1992. “Varieties of Realism: Thucydides and Machiavelli.” Journal of Politics 54 (2): 372-393. Hardan, Anaheed Al. “The Right of Return Movement in Syria: Building a Culture of Return, Mobilizing Memories for the Return.” Journal of Palestine studies 41, no. 2 (2012): 62–79.
Robinson, Glenn E. 2012. "Syria's Long Civil War." Current History, 12, 331-336. https://www.proquest.com/magazines/syrias-long-civil-war/docview/1237612879/se-2? accountid=8289. Week Two Professor and Class: How do we define “threat?” We define it as the act or ability by someone or something to set on harming or ill will to gain a benefit over those they are threatening. Threats can have a variety and can weigh heavily in political matters. Threats can upset the balance of another nation, and with threat analysis, one would determine if the threat could affect one’s balance and if taken seriously. The Joint Publication ‘Countering Threat Networks’ states “Threat networks are often the most complex adversaries that exist within the Operational Environment and frequently employ asymmetric methods to achieve their objectives. Disrupting their global reach and ability to influence events far outside of a specific operational area requires unity of effort across combatant commands (CCMDs) and all instruments of national power.” The assistance of other nations to help when facing a threat is crucial to fight the threats of propaganda, terrorism recruiting, and network financing to those who threaten other nations. Adaptive threat networks have emerged all over the world, posing a variety of problems to combined forces at various stages of operations. Threat networks are those that pose a threat to national interests due to their size, scope, or capability. The underlying networks may be included in these networks. These networks require informational, economic, logistical, and political components to function. For example, one threat to a nation’s balance and political stability is a military coup. In the nation of Burkina Faso, located in Africa, the military took control of the nation out of frustration of the government not protecting the people from terrorist groups such as al Qaeda and ISIL. The military coup happened quickly and overthrew the President. Burkina Faso experiences threats all around, from their borders to terrorist groups, an unstable government, and a disgruntled military. The government did not see the threat warning signs of the military coup or terrorist attacks and failed to provide adequate equipment and food to its military. The government began arresting members of its military for conspiring against the government, which escalated into the coup. Burkina Faso is not a well-known country internationally, so aid to deal with the coup and terrorist threats is limited. But Burkina Faso is unique when it comes to threat analysis and threat defense in defending its country against al Qaeda and ISIL on their own. Being in a constant state of war-like conditions for Burkina Faso is normal for the citizens, and the citizens are fighting as if they are beyond any threats. Burkina Faso is in a constant threat yet not at war with any other nation, it is with its government and terrorist organizations. The citizens still maintain their daily lives despite the fighting and attacks, and some participate in peaceful protests in the streets daily. The threats to Burkina Faso do not affect the citizens, and the threats to Burkina Faso are not enough to gain attention from The African Union or internationally. Will the threat of a military coup affect any entity's benefit? No. There is nothing to gain from the coup except
for a better government, military equipment, and standards. But the coerciveness of the military coup threats does bring change to the government and the citizens. 2016. Countering Threat Networks. https://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Doctrine/pubs/jp3_25.pdf. Al Jazeera. 2022. “At Least 50 Killed in Burkina Faso Rebel Attack: Government.” Conflict News | Al Jazeera. Al Jazeera. June 13, 2022. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/6/13/at- least-50-killed-in-burkina-faso-rebel-attack-government. AlJazeeraEnglish, dir. 2022. What's behind Burkina Faso's Latest Military Coup Attempt? | Inside Story. YouTube. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch? v=Vgi0SHkes6o&t=660s. Baldwin, David A. "Thinking about Threats." The Journal of Conflict Resolution15, no. 1 (1971): 71-78. http://www.jstor.org/stable/173249. Week Three Professor and Class: This week, as we delve into conventional military threats, we discuss the nature of this threat, and how realism applies to nation-state perceptions. A nation's strength and power usually dictate the sort of military danger it poses to other countries throughout the world. As technology advances, military capabilities morph and adapt, including a wide range of tools and tactics, resulting in a shift in how traditional military threats are viewed. Some of the most prominent dangers in recent years have included cyber-attacks, terrorism, and nuclear weapons. Traditional military warfare is defined as a planned, prepared, socially sanctioned action involving service members in rather sophisticated operations of assault or defense, and carried out in a rational manner to achieve a specific purpose. The capabilities and intentions of the entity create conventional military threats. The danger that a conventional military may provide to an opposing force consists of their objectives and the ongoing conflict that they can carry out. Throughout military history, there has been a repeating rise and fall in favor of counterinsurgency throughout military organizations. Because Western military forces are mostly designed to battle comparable foes, they must reposition themselves when confronted with elusive insurgency adversaries. The dominant Western military culture, on the other hand, hinders this adaptation process by emphasizing the defeat of an adversary via a decisive fight in which massive weaponry, technology, and maneuver by vast formations are critical to success. Counterinsurgency only acquires traction when soldiers recognize that the traditional, enemy- centric strategy is ineffective against a terrorist, or political subversive opponent hidden among innocent civilians. When the military realizes that something new is needed, it will often use a population-centric approach, which combines military, political, and socioeconomic measures to obtain widespread support for the government while denying it to the rebels.
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