10 Deadly Sins of Software Estimation
Steve McConnell
© 2002 Construx Software Builders, Inc. All Rights Reserved. www.construx.com
D e l e ring Softw are P e ct Succe ss iv roj
Construx
®
Background
Estimation Book v Construx Estimate™ v Construx’ Training s v Construx’ Consulting s v www.construx.com
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Art and Science of Software Estimation
Science of estimation is well-developed and well-supported by software tools v Art of estimation relies on rules of thumb and still needs some work v 3
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Almost-Deadly Sins of Software Estimation Sins #20-#11
Sin #20
Estimating how long “it”
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are developers tend to be introverts and relatively young v Marketing and sales personnel tend to be more extroverted and organizationally senior to the developers they negotiate with v 21
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Sin #3 Committing to Estimates Too Early in the Cone of Uncertainty
The Cone of Uncertainty
Project cost (effort and size) 4x Project schedule
Most estimates are created here
2x 1.5x 1.25x 1.0x 0.8x 0.67x 0.5x
Good estimates aren’ t possible until here
1.6x
1.25x 1.15x 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x 0.85x 0.8x
0.25x
0.6x
Time
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Plan to Revise Estimates Throughout the Project
Project cost (effort and size) 4x Project schedule 1.6x
2x 1.5x 1.25x 1.0x 0.8x 0.67x 0.5x
1.25x 1.15x 1.1x 1.0x 0.9x 0.85x 0.8x
0.25x
0.6x
Suitable only as estimates
Suitable as estimates Time and commitments
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Sin #4 Assuming Underestimation has No Impact on Project Results
Effect of Estimation Accuracy
Non-linear impact due to planning errors, upstream defects, high-risk practices
Cost Effort Schedule
Linear impact due to Parkinson’ Law s
Underestimation
Overestimation
< 100%
100%
>100%
Target as a Percentage of Nominal Estimate
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Sin #5 Estimating in the “Impossible Zone”
Puzzle
Suppose
The article “Introversion: The Often Forgotten Factor Impacting the Gifted” by Jill D. Burruss and Lisa Kaenzig begins by giving examples of how an introvert may behave. The authors continue by explaining that introversion is in not an issue, but a personality type which differs from that of the “normal,” more outgoing and friendly personality type, extroversion. Introverts and extroverts are different personality types, most people fall into one of the two categories. Typically, an introvert’s main focus is in the internal world of thoughts, while an extrovert's main focus is on the external world of people and events. Introverts tend to enjoy alone time, working on their own, and are usually quiet, and extroverts are typically social, enjoy
While most businesses look for an extroverted leader, Susan Cain has a very different perspective. She presented her speech, “The Power of Introverts”, where she explained how introverts are often underestimated. She talked about students who prefer to be alone are seen as an outlier or a problem and that surveys found that teachers feel the ideal student is an extrovert. She does not understand why teachers prefer extroverts since introverts often get better grades, and explains why introverts should not be looked over. Susan Cain’s goal is to inform the audience of the power of introverts, through her personal experiences, humor, emotion and statistics on the subject, and hopefully change the way society thinks of introverts. Cain is an
Extraversion is in essence the trait, which comprises all the optimistic social personality traits (Johnson, 2011). Conscientious individuals are highly organized. They are looked upon as highly dedicated workers, which most of the time leads to complete avoidance of pleasure activities (Johnson, 2011).
According to Jungian theory, Mark’s attitude would be considered extroversion. In the case study it was stated that Mark is not an introspective person. Mark describes himself as outgoing and it is clear that he enjoys the thrill of the adrenaline that he gets from his job.
“You see things. You keep quiet about them and you understand.” Stephen Chbosky wrote this in his adored epistolary novel The Perks of Being a Wallflower, a story concerning a socially awkward teen who watches life from the sideline, hence, a wallflower. The term “introvert” was without negative connotation until the increase in big business during the 20th century, which consequently caused introverts to become the minority. This is no coincidence. In Susan Cain’s critically praised book Quiet, she recognizes the effects of the big business rise, which directly lead to the demand for a “hearty extrovert with a salesman’s personality.” Her book not only focuses on the historical roots of the
This paper exposes and explores the personality type Introverted, iNtuitive, Feeling and Judging (INFJ) in the workplace and how it closely relates to the results acquired from the C.J. Jung and Myers-Briggs personality tests taken on websites. Examination of Kroeger, Thuesen and Rutledge’s (2002) research proposes that people should try to understand the personalities that make up a business environment rather than focusing on etiquette or a right way to be. Typewatching promotes a consciousness to assist business leadership effectively make impactful workplace decisions. Having an understanding of the how people operate in the workforce can have a major impact on how business leadership manages personnel. This paper will place a microscope
Making mistakes is natural, and it helps educate those willing to learn from those mistakes. Good executives make mistakes every week, but what makes them the best is how they learn from those mistakes. Mr. Konrad is one of those successful executives. He acknowledged the mistakes he made as a young businessman, which lead to the success of IKEA. Mr. Konrad once stated, “Only those who sleep make no mistakes” (2011, pg 63). This quote introduced at the beginning of the chapter helps show no one in the world is capable of being perfect, even if your Mr. Konrad who is a very successful businessman.
In addition, extroverts and introverts prefer different working environments, and they also perform differently when working in teams. Extroverts like working in an open environment with other people, and even prefer areas where there is constant activity going on around them. In contrast, introverts prefer working in quiet spaces with no distractions because an introvert’s performance is more likely to be impacted by distracting noises and other diversions. Extroverts prefer to work in teams, when working on projects, because they become energized through the interaction with the other group
There are two higher-order factors that both taxonomies clearly share: extraversion and neuroticism. Both approaches broadly accept that extraversion is associated with sociability and positive affect, whereas neuroticism is associated with emotional instability and negative affect.
Introversion-extroversion was proposed by Eysenck as a scale along which each individuals personalities vary, with most people gathering in the centre of the scale as neither highly introverted or extroverted. As introverts are found to be more shy than extroverts, and categorized as more likely to be found reading a book than at a party, the hypothesis that introverts are more intelligent that extroverts was tested.
Thirdly there is the Choleric personality type which is found in goal oriented people. These people are good thinkers. They are tech savy, analytical, and logical. Choleric people are practical, blunt, straight forward, and not very social. They do not tend to have good relationships and are not fans of small talk. The only conversations they have are deep and meaningful. They would rather be alone then with the average group of people. They only like people with the same interests and are not fans of people with differences. People in this area of personality are managers, techs, data collectors, engineers, programmers, and business men and women.
When considering the varying facets of personality types one must consider the complicated issue it presents. In spite of all the advancements that we have seen, being able to identify the difference in most personalities traits can be a daunting task. The different influences on personality development can be both genetic and environmental. The idea that neuroticism and extraversion are often listed as
Human error seems to be something that people see as being unavoidable and inescapable but in actuality there are ways in which if followed, errors especially in judgment can be avoided. First of all, why do errors occur? Some of us will agree that error occurs when an individual doesn’t have full knowledge on something or a topic but neglect that fact and act in such a way that displays they know everything. Knowledge is simply the ability to know something. Our Knowledge grows over time as we explore the world, watch the news, read books and so on. The first way to avoid error is to be open to knowledge and be wise enough to accept what one does not know. Socrates in his quest of proving that he isn’t the wisest like the oracle says,
Around the world, and nowadays you can see various personalities, different attitudes, and behaviors. Therefore, the psychologists are making a lot of researches and studies about how the personalities affect the human thinking and behavior. People are being taught that everyone has distinguished personality. However, two types of opposite personalities that always make the psychologists deep in thought about them are about introverted and extroverted personalities. Actually introversion and extroversion are two kinds of personalities that have different and similar characteristics. Both introverts and extroverts are similar in the level
The frequent use of estimate is most likely because the Engineering discipline has the closer characteristics to hard science, which incorporates more quantitative studies relying on analysis of numerical data (Becher and Trowler 2001: 36).