Soc 727-the Theory of Demographic Transition and Its Applicability to Developing Countries

2,000 years ago the world, in terms of population, was only the size of the United States of America, 300 million people. Today, the world’s population is at seven billion and counting. If the population rose at a steady rate from year 0, we would’ve reached 1 billion people by about 210 A.D. This, however, was not the case. We reached 1 billion people in 1800 A.D, which means that there had to be very odd growth periods for the population as a whole REWORD ME. From 0 to 1000 A.D. the population only rose about 10 million people, “and well into the second millennium, [the population] grew less than 0.1 percent each year” [1]. However, from the year 1800, with 1 billion people worldwide, to 1930, the world gained another billion people. We then reached three billion people in 1960, five billion in 1987, and 7 billion in 2013. One can clearly see that once we entered the 19th century, the world’s population started growing like a 14 year old boy going through puberty; rapidly, and without any warning. One thing that can explain this growth is called the Demographic Transition.The Demographic Transition is a theory that explains the growth.

Thesis: The topic of human population growth is an important issue due to its impacts upon people in developing countries, economics, religion, food production, and the environment; without any limitations, population growth can lead to negative consequences, such as famine and environmental destruction, or even positive outcomes, such as potential economic growth.

Developed nations such as the United States, Canada, or in Western Europe tend to have __________fertility rates and __________ mortality rates.

In developed countries the birth and infant mortality rate is lower than developing countries. With the developing countries having a higher birth rate they also have a higher infant mortality rate. It is difficult to predict the earth’s population growth because of the different stages a country might be in, or how fast they move from one to another. Stage one is preindustrial, this is when the birth rate is high but so is the death rate so the population is low. Stage two is the transitional stage where the birth rate is still high but health care has gotten better so the death rate has decreased and the population is skyrocketing. Stage three is the industrial stage this is when the birth rate is still increasing even though the death rate has stayed the same making the population still increase. In the final stage postindustrial the birth rates are very low because of birth control and people desiring smaller families. The death rate is still how and the population slowly

The demographic transition is a three-stage model of population growth in Europe. In the first stage there is a stable population because birth and death rates are both high. The second stage happens as mortality rates begin to slowly decline, but birth rates stay high. When this stage happens, there is fast population growth. During the third stage, the population is more stable as both birth and death rates are low and are more or less balanced. In more recent years, a fourth stage as been brought on by Anti-Malthusians. During this stage, population shrinkage occurs because the deaths begin to outnumber the births. Europe provides a great example to the theory of demographic transition. After speedy population growth of stage two, Europe settled at stage three with a stable population. It is currently in stage four with a shrinking population. In most European nations there are lesser births than deaths which could ultimately create other social problems.

To alter the request for the study on how the world populace changes after some time it is helpful to look on the rate of progress. Before year of 1800 the world populace development rate never surpassed 0.5%, while over the span of the initial fifty years of the twentieth century it went from only 0.8% to 2.1% which would be considered as the most noteworthy yearly development rate ever.

Demographic transition is the process by which a nation/country moves from high birth rate and high death rates to low birth and low death rates as the growth population in the interim (Weeks, 2005). Some of the nations that have gone through this transitions are; Canada, Germany, United States and England. The demographic transition to an industrialized society is harmful to the environment. Industrialized countries also have the largest ecological and carbon footprint comparative to developing/non-industrialized nations. Nevertheless, demographic transitions have some notable advantages. Countries that have gone through demographic transitions have low birth and death rates. Citizens in

stage. Amid this stage, the conception rates start to decay for some reasons. Generally, individuals understand that they probably won't need to deliver expansive quantities of posterAmid the first stage, the preindustrial stage, populace becomes gradually due to a high conception rate and a high passing rate. These high demise rates are brought on by poor nourishment and starvation, poor levels of cleanliness, and high measures of sickness. The high conception rates were because of a few nations having constrained anticonception medication which prompts more kids. High newborn child death rates support the conception of more youngsters. Kids are likewise seen as an issue source in wage, hence it would be all the more financially advantageous to have more children. Because of these variables populace development is little.

The demographic transition model is valid when applied to Djibouti, which is a lower developed stage 2 country, because of the economic, social, and health factors found on the human development index.

In figure 1 and figure 2 above, I have ranked the countries that I have chosen in order from highest to lowest total fertility rate (TFR) and maternal mortality rate (MMR). The data shows that the TFR is congruous with the MMR within most of the countries. The

The purpose of this report is to analyze five varying countries’ populations from over the years and compare their process to the Demographic Transition Model. By comparing each country with the model and using their population pyramid graphs, the goal is to discover how precisely and where the countries fit.

Demographic transition involves the changes a less industrialized country undergoes regarding birth rates and death rates from being an industrialized country. The change implies the reduction of birth and mortality rates from a less industrialized country into an industrialized country with reduced birth and death rates. Several countries, especially the European countries, exemplify this mode of transition in their historical information. Besides, the changes involved in demographic transition filters down to the environment in the long-run. The surrounding environment suffers from the expanded industrialization and due to the demographic transition (Smout, 2009).

In Stage three, the total population is increasing at a greater rate than in the previous stages. The birth rates and death rates are decreasing because of many factors in society, but the most prevalent factor is due to the increase use of birth control.

The demographic transition model, derived by famed demographer Warren Thompson, is a model that conveys the demographic stage in which a certain country fits. This is broken up into five major stages. In stage 1, birth rates and death rates are high. This trend was common all around the world before the Industrial Revolution. So, population remains constant, however it can have major swings as events like wars or pandemics occur. Next, in stage 2, modern medicine becomes available and so it lowers death rates all while birth rates remain high; therefore, the population grows rapidly. Many of the least developed countries today are in this stage of the model. Next, in stage 3, birth rates decrease, almost always as a result of the improvement in economic conditions, women having more rights, and contraception being available. Population growth continues, however at a slower rate. Many of the developing countries today are in stage 3. In stage 4, birth and death rates are both very low. This fact stabilizes the population. Countries that fall in this stage tend to have strong economies, high levels of education available to most anyone, high quality healthcare, a large amount of women are working, and a fertility rate of around two children per woman during her childbearing years. Most of the developed countries today fall into this stage of the model. Stage 5 of the demographic

But the death rate exceeds the birth rate, which triggers the population increasing very slowly or almost stable. In this stage, birth rate becomes high due to less use of contraception and sterilization. Most of the people do survive in agriculture where the children are considered as economic assets and so people are encouraged to get many children. Similarly death rate becomes high due to diseases, natural calamities, wars, etc. Infant death rate is also found very high. Because of poor health facilities provided by the state to the people, lack of clean water and sanitation and food shortage, health of the people will be weak so that the people will depart the life in high numbers. Before 1920, China and India were at this stage (Raj, H. 2003). This stage is generally found in the countries where people depend on agriculture as a main source of surviving. At present, the countries like Nigeria, Ethiopia, Tanzania, Angola, etc. are passing through this stage (Raj, H.2003)