The Forecasting Model: Predicting The Demand Of Nursing Care

As the general population continues to age and grow, the nursing workforce is aging alongside. Approximately half of the current nursing workforce is apart of the baby boomer generation (Mion). RNs are eligible to retire at age 55, which will affect the majority of “baby boomer” nurses between 2005 and 2010 (Mion). According to the Nursing Management Aging Workforce Survey in 2006, “55% of surveyed nurses reported their intention to retire between 2011 and 2020” (Nursing Shortage). The demand for skilled nurses is growing at an exponential rate. According to information from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the supply of nurses has been

An article in the Health Marketing Quarterly written by Mark Somers, Linda Finch, and Dee Birnbaum (university instructors in schools of management, nursing and business fields in the U.S.) asserts that the nursing shortages of "highly trained nurses and of nursing faculty" is close to a level that could be termed a "crisis" (Somers, et al, 2010). The expected gap between supply and demand will expand to more than a million nurses by 2020, Somers explains, which is twice the shortfall had had been projected just two years prior to this article's publication (292).

The Robert Wood Johnson Foundation (RWJF) has just released a new study highlighting the steps 12 states are taking to prevent a looming crisis in nursing. Experts predict the United States could be short more than 260,000 nurses by 2025 and the study authors say state-level partnerships must take the lead in addressing the problem. The scarce supply and shortage of nursing staff has become a matter of sincere concern for healthcare organizations across the nation. The demand for healthcare services is increasing and requires healthcare organizations to employ qualified and well trained nursing staff.

The nation has a growing concern for the shortage of skilled nurses in the United States. The growing need of qualified nursing professionals reflects the growth of the aging population. As the retirement of healthcare professionals increase the need for replacement isn’t moving at the same rate. The nursing shortage places demand on nurses to work long hours, multiple jobs and overtime, which places them at risk for nursing errors. There are many incentives that show the increasing need for nursing professional. There are many different scholarships, grants and tuition reimbursement programs being awarded to produce more nursing professionals. The nursing shortage has led to a nursing crisis in most states. In the following research I will discuss some key factors about of nursing shortage, some factors that have an impact of the shortage in the nursing profession, and some economic issues. I will discuss different legislative acts and what was concluded from my research.

There are direct and indirect implications of the Affordable Care Act for nursing. Those that are directly related to requirements of nursing and those that will affect nurses through provisions and newfound opportunities that will come up. The largest indirect impact on nurses is the concern regarding the number of primary care physicians available to care for all of the new individuals who will be able to afford health care. Many advanced primary registered nurses are being called to step up and help out with the large number of new patients. The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics predicts that demand for nurses will result in 3.5 million nursing jobs by 2020. Nurses with strong skills will be in high demand in the labor market as new job opportunities will arise (health reform affect demand).

The American Nurses Association say the shortage is the product of several trends, including: a diminishing pipeline of new students to nursing, a decline in RN/CNA earnings in comparison to other career option, aging nursing workforce and an aging population that will require health care services (Writer, 2016). With the shortage of staff and the baby boomers turning sixty and many already in retirement, healthcare staff members are going to have to pick up more shifts and a tougher workload. Healthcare industries need to focus on recruiting and retaining staff because hiring more nursing staff is expensive in the short term. But having too few staff leads to being burned out. Having the right amount of CNAs and nurses is essential for manageable workload distribution. Facilities need to prevent and protect current employed nursing staff from being overworked and stressing out because good health care workers only quit when they are overwhelmed. Most are afraid that they are not providing the best care anymore and feel like they can not do what they love the most anymore (Cimiotti, 2017).

The nursing shortage has been influenced by the aging workforce, shortage of nursing faculty, professional alternatives, poor working conditions and poor nursing image. By 2020, there will be an increase in demand for registered nurses (RNs) due to the increase need for healthcare services to meet the needs of the baby boom generation (Keenan & Kennedy, 2003). It is estimated that the nursing shortage will range from 400,000 to 808,000 full-time equivalents (FTE) RNs. The nursing shortage has impacted the intensive care units (ICU), medical surgical units and operating rooms (Keenan & Kennedy).

In 1960, Virginia Avenel Henderson a nurse and a theorist in the same time, defined nursing, “the unique function of the nurse is to assist the individual, sick or well, in the performance of those activities contributing to health or its recovery (or to a peaceful death) that he would perform unaided if he had the necessary strength, will or knowledge. And to do this in such a way as to help him gain independence as rapidly as possible”. It is a noble function and to be fulfilled at the highest levels, it takes time, patience and the devotion. When the number of people given this care is much lower than that of people who must receive the care, then a crisis occurs. The phenomenon is acute not only in America but all around the world. Even if the nursing is considered a meaningful work, the country is facing a nursing shortage that grows more with each passing year. Nursing shortages in America affect all parts of the health care delivery system.

The web site I found that discusses this critical issue is by the American Association of Colleges of Nursing. (AACN). This is an outstanding website that discusses the current and projected issues regarding the nursing shortage. The article identifies sobering figures of projected shortages up to the year 2020. By 2010, the nursing shortage is projected to be 12%, by 2015 to be 20% and by 2020 a frightening 29%. (AACN). If society and our political leaders do not recognize this as a topic of huge impact, then we, collectively, do not have a chance to change the trend. The driving forces for the trend are not extraordinary; they reflect our

Snavely, T.M. (2016). Data Watch. A Brief Economic Analysis of the Looming Nursing Shortage in the United States. Nursing Economic$, 34(2), 98-100.

It is likely that most people have heard about the nursing shortage for years now, and perhaps they believe it’s been fixed. However, the nursing profession is experiencing a reoccurring deficiency. According to Brian Hansen, (2002), there was a nation wide shortage in 2001 of 126,000 full-time registered nurses, but the shortage will surge to 808,000 by 2020 if something isn't done. This pattern is a persisting cycle of high vacancies followed by layoffs and a high over supply of registered nurses. Various factors contribute to the lack of nurses within the health care facilities, but today’s shortages are a little different. Many feel that this scarcity is severe and long-drawn-out. The four major issues contributing to

Employment of registered nurses is expecting to grow 19 percent from 2012 to 2022 which is faster than any other occupation. The growth will occur for a number of

Your post brought out some great ideas about the nurse staffing crisis. As you stated, with the aging of the ‘baby boomers’ the demand for nurses is expected to only rise. Adding an interesting element is the fact that not only are patients aging, nurses are also aging. Per Auerbach, Buerhaus, and Staiger (2015), 40% of working nurses today are over the age of 40. In the next 20 years, this generation of nurses will be retiring and there will be an ever-rising demand for a new generation of nurses.

According to Paller (2012), the nursing shortage in different countries for example the United States tends not to be the only growing problem, but has also become a complex one. Nursing shortage and nurse's turnover has become the worsening predicament in the health care industry in the United

Authors of the paper have stated that Most of the countries present have a various imbalances in the form of skill, number, geographic when it comes to health and nursing departments and are in shortage of required nurses for future requirements in health care system. This shortage has shed light on the highly variable density in number of nurses per 1000 persons. In Europe, Ireland has the highest nurse density of 14.8 which is three times that of Greece which has the lowest density of 3.8 this shows huge variation among different European countries which is independent of shortage of reported nurses across European countries. The shortages in countries are mostly related to the particular countries historical data of number of nurses and resources available[1]. As the population ages the demand for better healthcare system and nurses will grow accordingly and available nurses decrease. Hence it is possible that the shortage increases dramatically which doesn’t correspond to the cyclic decreases of the past thus limiting the innovation in healthcare system and increase the cost[2]. Recent studies of