1. Consider the total production (and sales) of ice cream in Canada (in millions of liters) for the period 1995 until 2007 (from left to right): 341, 331, 317, 315, 321, 278, 298, 311, 302, 302, 335, 320, 285 Fit a model to ice cream production data using each of the following techniques and forecast the 2008 production in each case. Also, plot the two moving average forecasts and the actual, the two exponential smoothing forecasts and the actual, and the linear trend and the actual (three graphs altogether). Two-year moving average. Four-year moving average. Exponential smoothing with smoothing constant = 0.2.
1. Consider the total production (and sales) of ice cream in Canada (in millions of liters) for the period 1995 until 2007 (from left to right):
341, 331, 317, 315, 321, 278, 298, 311, 302, 302, 335, 320, 285
Fit a model to ice cream production data using each of the following techniques and
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Two-year moving average.
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Four-year moving average.
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Exponential smoothing with smoothing constant = 0.2.
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Exponential smoothing with smoothing constant = 0.4.
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Linear trend (regression).
f. Just by observing the plots, which of the above techniques would you use to
forecast the ice cream production and why? (Hint: The plot overall closest to
actual demand will be most accurate).
g. Alternatively,computetheMADforeachforecastingtechniqueanddetermine
the most accurate technique.
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