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Consider the following time series data.     Choose the correct time series plot. (i)   (ii)   (iii)   (iv)     What type of pattern exists in the data?   Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18   2 13   3 16   4 11 fill in the blank 3 5 17 fill in the blank 4 6 14 fill in the blank 5 MSE: fill in the blank 6 The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 7 Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18   2 13 fill in the blank 8 3 16 fill in the blank 9 4 11 fill in the blank 10 5 17 fill in the blank 11 6 14 fill in the blank 12 MSE: fill in the blank 13 The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 14

Consider the following time series data.     Choose the correct time series plot. (i)   (ii)   (iii)   (iv)     What type of pattern exists in the data?   Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18   2 13   3 16   4 11 fill in the blank 3 5 17 fill in the blank 4 6 14 fill in the blank 5 MSE: fill in the blank 6 The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 7 Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places. Week Time Series Value Forecast 1 18   2 13 fill in the blank 8 3 16 fill in the blank 9 4 11 fill in the blank 10 5 17 fill in the blank 11 6 14 fill in the blank 12 MSE: fill in the blank 13 The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 14

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter13: Regression And Forecasting Models
Section13.7: Exponential Smoothing Models
Problem 25P: The file P13_25.xlsx contains the quarterly numbers of applications for home mortgage loans at a...
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  1. Consider the following time series data.

     

     

    1. Choose the correct time series plot.

      (i)   (ii)  
      (iii)   (iv)  

       


      What type of pattern exists in the data?

       


    2. Develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.


      Week      		 Time Series
      Value
      Forecast
      1 18  
      2 13  
      3 16  
      4 11 fill in the blank 3
      5 17 fill in the blank 4
      6 14 fill in the blank 5

      MSE: fill in the blank 6

      The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 7

    3. Use α = 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute MSE and a forecast for week 7. If required, round your answers to two decimal places.


      Week      		 Time Series
      Value
      Forecast
      1 18  
      2 13 fill in the blank 8
      3 16 fill in the blank 9
      4 11 fill in the blank 10
      5 17 fill in the blank 11
      6 14 fill in the blank 12

      MSE: fill in the blank 13

      The forecast for week 7: fill in the blank 14

    4. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using α = 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE?

       


      Explain.

      The input in the box below will not be graded, but may be reviewed and considered by your instructor.



    5. Use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient α that results in a smaller MSE than what you calculated for α = 0.2.

       

     

     
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answer the sub parts
 
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