1. The following table gives the PDF (Probability Density Function) of the discrete variable X -1 -2 2 3 4 f(x) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 Calculate the E(x) (expectation) and var(x) (variance)
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- You are modeling a qualitative variable that takes on two classes (classes 1 and 2). In trying to classify observation 11 (out of 20) you compute the conditional probability for class 1 as 0.51. How would you classify this observation?You are considering a $500,000 investment in the fast-food industry and have narrowed your choice to either a McDonald’s or a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise. McDonald’s indicates that, based on the location where you are proposing to open a new restaurant, there is a 25 percent probability that aggregate 10-year profits (net of the initial investment) will be $16 million, a 50 percent probability that profits will be $8 million, and a 25 percent probability that profits will be −$1.6 million. The aggregate 10-year profit projections (net of the initial investment) for a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise is $48 million with a 2.5 percent probability, $8 million with a 95 percent probability, and −$48 million with a 2.5 percent probability. Considering both the risk and expected profitability of these two investment opportunities, which is the better investment? Explain carefully.Explain why the variance of an investment is a useful measure of the risk associated with it
- Bob earn 60,000 a year and an accounting firm each year he receives Reyes Bob has determined that the probability that he receives a 10% raise is .7 the probability that he earns a 3% raise is .2 and the probability that he earns a 2% raise is .1 a competing company has offered Bob a similar position for 65,000 a year Bob wonders if he should take the new job or take his chances with his current job. a. Find the mathematical expectation of the dollar amount of his raise at his current job b.Exercise 3: Risky Investment Charlie has von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function u(x) = ln x and has wealth W = 250, 000. She is offered the opportunity to purchase a risky project for price P = 160, 000. 1 1 With probability p = 2 the project will be a success and return V > 160, 000. With probability 1 −p = 2 the project will fail and be worthless (i.e. it returns 0). For simplicity assume there is no interest between the time of the investment and the time of its return, that is r = 0 . How large must V be in order for Charlie to want to purchase the risky project? [Hint: What is Charlie’s expected utility is she does not purchase the project? What is Charlie’s expected utility is she purchases the project?]In any year, the weather can inflict storm damage to a home. From year to year, thedamage is random. Let Y denote the dollar value of damage in any given year.Suppose that in 95% of the years Y = 0, but in 5% of the years Y = 20,000.a. What is the mean of the damage in any year?b. What is the standard deviation of the damage in any year?c. Consider an “insurance pool” of 100 people who homes are sufficientlydispersed so that, in any year, the damage to different homes can be viewed asindependently distributed random variables. What is the probability that ?exceeds $2000?
- The promoter of a football game is concerned that it will rain. She has the option of spending $14,040 on insurance that will pay $39,000 if it rains. She estimates that the revenue from the game will be $65,040 if it does not rain and $30,040 if it does rain. What must the chance of rain be if buying the policy has the same expected return as not buying it? Write expressions showing the expected returns if the promoter does and does not purchase the insurance, using p to represent the probability of rain. Without insurance, E(return) = With insurance, E(return) = The chance of rain must be _%.A pension fund manager is considering three mutual funds. The first is a stock fund, the second is a long-term government and corporate bond, and the third is a T-bill money market fund that yields a rate of 8%. The mean and the standard deviation of the risky funds is as follows: Expected Return Standard Deviation Stock fund (S) 20% 30% Bond fund (B) 12% 15% The correlation between the fund returns is 0.10. Your client’s degree of risk aversion is A = 3.5. Given the utility function: U = E(r) - 1/2 A Sigma^2 What proportion, y, of the total investment should be invested in the tangency portfolio so that your client can maximize his/her expected utility? What is the expected value and standard deviation of the rate of return on your client’s optimized portfolio?5 Historical data indicates that only 35% of cable customers are willing to switch companies. If a binomial process is assumed, then in a sample of 12 cable customers, what is the probability that between 3 and 5 (inclusive) customers are willing to switch companies? (Use TI 84 and round answer to at least 3 decimal places)
- According to a recent Wall Street Journal article, about 2% of new US car sales are electric vehicles (data from Edison Electric Institute reported by Jinjoo Lee, "Peak Oil? Not This Year. Or This Decade," January 9, 2021 pg. B12). Suppose a company has 111 employees who drive new cars (separately) to work each day. What is the probability that at least one of them will drive an electric car? Note:- Do not provide handwritten solution. Maintain accuracy and quality in your answer. Take care of plagiarism. Answer completely. You will get up vote for sure.Two cards are drawn from a standard deck without replacement. What is the probability that the first card is a diamond and the second card is red? (Round your answer to three decimal places.)Donna just paid $800 for a new iPhone. Apple offers a two year extended warranty for $200 and Donna is considering purchasing it. She has utility given by U(X)=√X. Without the extended warranty, the iPhone becomes worthless if it breaks. What is the minimum probability, p, that the iPhone breaks in the next two years that will cause Donna to prefer to purchase the extended warranty? p=_____________ If the probability that her phone breaks is p=0.25, will Donna will prefer to buy or not buy the warranty?
