6. Most business decisions are made under conditions of either risk or uncertainty. In youropinion, is it easier to make a decision under a condition of risk or a condition ofuncertainty? Why?.Feb 12, 2022, 12:45 PMAccessibility: Unavailable

Decision-making is an important aspect of every organization. It is a process of selecting the best…

Answered: 6. Most business decisions are made…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 73P

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A potentially huge hurricane is forming in theCaribbean,and there is some chance that it mightmake a direct hit on Hilton Head Island, SouthCarolina,where you are in charge of emergencypreparedness. You have made plans for evacuatingeveryone from the island, but such an evacuation isobviously costly and upsetting for all involved, so thedecision to evacuate shouldn’t be made lightly. Discusshow you would make such a decision. Is EMVa relevant concept in this situation? How would youevaluate the consequences of uncertain outcomes?
You are the Chief Executive Officer for NeverEnding Tyres Inc. You have the responsibility to secure a new distribution center where you own over 1000 hectares of land near the intended distribution center. For you, this could result to ____ a. the usual decision making problems of cost versus benefitb. a wonderful, ethical opportunity to make profitc. an ethical opportunity to move the distribution center to your hometownd. a conflict of interest
Rollo Megabux has $1 million to invest in stocks orbonds. The percentage yield on each investment during thecoming year depends on whether the economy has a goodor a bad year (see Table 17). It is equally likely that theeconomy will have a good or a bad year.a If Rollo is risk-neutral, how should he invest hismoney?b For $10,000, Rollo can hire a consulting firm toforecast the state of the economy. The consulting firm’sforecasts have the following properties:P(good forecast|economy good) .80P(good forecast|economy bad) .20Should Rollo hire the consulting firm? What are EVSIand EVPI? Economy EconomyHas Good Has BadYear YearYield on stocks 22% 10%Yield on bonds 16% 14%
2. Using the following table, perform ALL FIVE of the techniques for Decision Making under Uncertainty: Maximax, Maximin, Hurwicz Realism (α = 0.7), LaPlace and Minimax Regret. You must show your work for obtaining the points. PROFIT ($) STRONG MARKET FAIR MARKET POOR MARKET Large facility 550,000 110,000 -310,000 Medium-sized facility 300,00 129,000 -100,000 Small facility 200,000 100,000 -32,000 No facility 0 0 0
Assume that the payoff table provides cost rather than profit payoffs. What isthe recommended decision using:i. the optimistic approachii. the conservative approachiii. the minimax regret approachiv. the Laplace method
Private Insurance provides coverages that can be used to meet specific loss situations. For each of the following insurance situation, identify a private insurance coverage that would provide the desired protection and explain your recommendation; A. John, 32, single parent with 1 dependent child. He recently purchased a house worth PhP 5 million, where half of this amount is mortgaged loan (PagIBIG). He wants to be certain that he would be able to pay his loan in case of disability. B. Rey, 36, married with 3 dependents. His wife is a disabled person and is unable to work. As the sole breadwinner, he wants to be sure that his family would have funds in case of his premature death. C. Marian, 44, owns a trading shop. The premises are rented. The total amount value of goods in her shop amounts to PhP 7 million. She has no savings. She wants to be certain she will be able to run her business if her shop catches fire and other loss. D. Dominic, 15, a talented motor racer. However, his…
#17FAVORABLE UNFAVORABLEMARKET MARKETEQUIPMENT ( $) ($)Sub 100 300,000 –200,000Oiler J 250,000 –100,000Texan 75,000 –18,000For example, if Ken purchases a Sub 100 and ifthere is a favorable market, he will realize a profitof $300,000. On the other hand, if the market is unfavorable, Ken will suffer a loss of $200,000. ButKen has always been a very optimistic decisionmaker.(a) What type of decision is Ken facing?(b) What decision criterion should he use?(c) What alternative is best? #18Although Ken Brown (discussed in Problem 3-17) is the principal owner of Brown Oil, his brother Bob iscredited with making the company a financial success. Bob is vice president of finance. Bob attributeshis success to his pessimistic attitude about business and the oil industry. Given the information fromProblem 3-17, it is likely that Bob will arrive at a different decision. What decision criterion should Bobuse, and what alternative…
Please pick a specialized book that interests you and point to 4 examples that contain numerical data that can be used to make decisions under uncertainty.(a) Please list each item in each example.(b) Please identify (1) decision maker; (2) alternatives; (3) uncertainties in each example.
You often hear about the trade-off between risk and reward. Is this trade-off part of decision making under uncertainty when the decision maker uses theEMV criterion? For example, how does this work in investment decisions?

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6. Most business decisions are made under conditions of either risk or uncertainty. In your opinion, is it easier to make a decision under a condition of risk or a condition of uncertainty? Why?.