71. Your company has signed a contract with a goodcustomer to ship the customer an order no later than20 days from now. The contract indicates that thecustomer will accept the order even if it is late, butinstead of paying the full price of $10,000, it will beallowed to pay 10% less, $9000, due to lateness. Youestimate that it will take anywhere from 17 to 22 daysto ship the order, and each of these is equally likely.You believe you are in good shape, reasoning that theexpected days to ship is the average of 17 through 22,or 19.5 days. Because this is less than 20, you will getyour full $10,000. What is wrong with yourreasoning?

Algebra for College Students
10th Edition
ISBN:9781285195780
Author:Jerome E. Kaufmann, Karen L. Schwitters
Publisher:Jerome E. Kaufmann, Karen L. Schwitters
Chapter14: Sequences And Mathematical Induction
Section14.3: Another Look At Problem Solving
Problem 30PS
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71. Your company has signed a contract with a good
customer to ship the customer an order no later than
20 days from now. The contract indicates that the
customer will accept the order even if it is late, but
instead of paying the full price of $10,000, it will be
allowed to pay 10% less, $9000, due to lateness. You
estimate that it will take anywhere from 17 to 22 days
to ship the order, and each of these is equally likely.
You believe you are in good shape, reasoning that the
expected days to ship is the average of 17 through 22,
or 19.5 days. Because this is less than 20, you will get
your full $10,000. What is wrong with your
reasoning?

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