ysis ...HelpSave & ExitSubmitA decision maker has prepared the following payoff table.States of NatureAlternativeHighLowBuy85-5Rent7540Lease4545Using the Maximin criterion, what is the best decision and the expected payoff?Best decisionPayoff< Prev5 of 5Nexle

Answered: A decision maker has prepared the…

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.5: Multistage Decision Problems

Problem 11P

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

In Example 11.1, the possible profits vary from negative to positive for each of the 10 possible bids examined. a. For each of these, use @RISKs RISKTARGET function to find the probability that Millers profit is positive. Do you believe these results should have any bearing on Millers choice of bid? b. Use @RISKs RISKPERCENTILE function to find the 10th percentile for each of these bids. Can you explain why the percentiles have the values you obtain?
Suppose that a decision is faced with three decision alternatives and four states of nature.The following profit payoff table is constructed: ALTERNATIVES STATE OF NATURE S1 S2 S3 S4 A1 18 12 15 8 A2 15 14 10 11 A3 13 16 19 15 Assuming that the decision maker has no knowledge about the probabilities of occurrenceof the four states of nature, find the decisions to be recommended under each of thefollowing criteria:i. Maximin criterionii. Maximax criterioniii. Minimax Reject criterioniv. Hurwicz criterion with α = 0.6
The following payoff table shows a profit for a decision analysis problem with two decision alternatives and three states of nature. In order to get full credit, show your all work done step by step including cell calculations using excel functions. State of Nature Decion Alternatives s1 s2 s3 d1 250 100 50 d2 100 75 100 a) Construct a decision tree for this problem. b) Suppose that the decision-maker obtains the probabilities P(s1)=0.65, P(s2)=0.15, and P(s3)=0.20. Use the expected value approach to determine the optimal decision.
Many decision problems have the following simplestructure. A decision maker has two possible decisions,1 and 2. If decision 1 is made, a sure cost of c isincurred. If decision 2 is made, there are two possibleoutcomes, with costs c1 and c2 and probabilities p and1 2 p. We assume that c1 , c , c2. The idea is thatdecision 1, the riskless decision, has a moderate cost,whereas decision 2, the risky decision, has a low costc1 or a high cost c2.a. Calculate the expected cost from the riskydecision.b. List as many scenarios as you can think of thathave this structure. (Here’s an example to get youstarted. Think of insurance, where you pay a surepremium to avoid a large possible loss.) For eachof these scenarios, indicate whether you wouldbase your decision on EMV or on expected utility.
Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle’s alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisle’s marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes to be 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P09_31.xlsx contains Carlisle’s payoffs and costs for the various combinations of decisions and outcomes. a. Use PrecisionTree to identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturer’s expected profit. b. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the monetary inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 10% from its base value, and summarize your findings. Which of the inputs appears to have the largest effect on the best solution? Tire plant decisions Decision\outcome…
A landlord can either lease for one or two years or sell offices outrightly for K100 million with payoffs as follows: Lease -100 50 150 Sell 100 100 100 The probability of rejecting is 30%, leasing for one year is 50% and for two years 20%. Required: What is the optimal decision strategy if perfect information were available? What is the expected value of perfect information? A decision maker is looking to minimising costs through three alternative decisions a1 , b2 and c3 under two states of nature/events S1 and S2 with S1 having a probability of 30% . For a1 payoffs for s1 K100 million and s2 K540 million For a2 payoff for s1 K150 million and s2 –K50 million For a3 payoff for s1 K350 million and s2 K320 million Required: Find EMV and recommend the course of action Find the…
A company is considering a new product launch. There is a 0.6 chance thatdemand for the product will be strong and a 0.4 chance that demand will beweak. Two strategies for the launch are possible: 1 has high promotion costs anda net cash outflow of K120 000 if demand proves to be strong, and if demandproves weak a net cash outflow of (K30 000) will result. Strategy 2 has lowpromotion costs and if demand is strong will generate a cash inflow of only K80000 but with weak demand a net cash inflow of K20 000. i. Draw a decision tree and advise which course of action generates thegreatest expected profit. ii. What is the maximum amount that should be paid for market research todetermine with certainty whether demand will be strong or weak?
Carlisle Tire and Rubber, Inc., is considering expanding production to meet potential increases in the demand for one of its tire products. Carlisle’s alternatives are to construct a new plant, expand the existing plant, or do nothing in the short run. The market for this particular tire product may expand, remain stable, or contract. Carlisle’s marketing department estimates the probabilities of these market outcomes to be 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40, respectively. The file P06_31.xlsx (picture of given excel file is attached) contains Carlisle’s payoffs and costs for the various combinations of decisions and outcomes. Identify the strategy that maximizes this tire manufacturer’s expected profit. Perform a sensitivity analysis on the optimal decision, letting each of the monetary inputs vary one at a time plus or minus 10% from its base value, and summarize your findings. Which of the inputs appears to have the largest effect on the best solution?
A decision maker is looking to minimising costs through three alternative decisions a1 , b2 and c3 under two states of nature/events S1 and S2 with S2 having a probability of 30% . For a1 payoffs for s1 K100 million and s2 K540 million For a2 payoff for s1 K150 million and s2 –K50 million For a3 payoff for s1 K350 million and s2 K320 million Find EMV and recommend the course of action Find the EMV under certainty Use the EVC to find the EVPI Determine the opportunity loss table Find the course of action that minimises EOL Compare the minimum EOL with the EVPI.
9. A decision-maker has two alternative courses of action, A1 and A2. There are three possible states of nature, S1, S2, and S3. The table of conditional profits, as well as the probabilities for the states of nature, appear below. Based on this decision table, which decision alternative produces the higher EMV? States of Nature Alternatives S1 S2 S3 A1 10,000 20,000 6,000 A2 5,000 30,000 15,000 Probability 0.3 0.5 0.2 Part 2 The best decision is ▼ a. alternative Upper A 1alternative A1 b. alternative Upper A 2alternative A2 , with an EMV=$________(enter your response as a whole number).
Pete is considering placing a bet on the NCAA playoffgame between Indiana and Purdue. Without any furtherinformation, he believes that each team has an equal chanceto win. If he wins the bet, he will win $10,000; if he loses,he will lose $11,000. Before betting, he may pay Bobby$1,000 for his inside prediction on the game; 60% of thetime, Bobby will predict that Indiana will win and 40% ofthe time, Bobby will predict that Purdue will win. WhenBobby says that IU will win, IU has a 70% chance ofwinning, and when Bobby says that Purdue will win, IU hasonly a 20% chance of winning. Determine how Pete canmaximize his total expected profit. What is EVSI? What isEVPI?
Please show the steps by using the formula for each Salalah Methanol company management is considering three competing investment Projects Option1: Starting a unit in Sohar, Option 2: Starting a unit in Musandam and Option 3: Starting a unit in Muscat. The initialinvestment for all the projects are 11000 and the cost of capital is 4.05% Year Sohar Musandam Muscat 1 1100 2160 3225 2 3100 3260 4250 3 3800 4360 5475 4 4600 5460 6300 5 5100 6900 7000 Use the information below and help the management in choosing the most desirable Project using a. Payback period b. Discounted payback c. Net Present value d. Profitability Index. You have to suggest to the management which project to choose and why

SEE MORE QUESTIONS

Recommended textbooks for you

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

Practical Management Science

Operations Management

ISBN:

9781337406659

Author:

WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:

Cengage,

SEE MORE TEXTBOOKS

A decision maker has prepared the following payoff table. States of Nature Alternative High Low Buy 85 -5 Rent 75 40 Lease 45 45 Using the Maximin criterion, what is the best decision and the expected payoff? Best decision Payoff