A firm is considering a product launch. It will do so if the expected total revenue is in excess of K1000. It decides to set the price at K10. Different levels of sales are predicted with probabilities of: 80 units with 0.15 probability; 100 units with 0.50 and 120 units with 0.35. Should the firm go ahead and launch the product?
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- A firm is considering a product launch. It will do so if the expected total revenue is in excess of K1000. It decides to set the price at K10. Different levels of sales are predicted with probabilities of: 80 units with 0.15 probability; 100 units with 0.50 and 120 units with 0.35.
Should the firm go ahead and launch the product?
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- A company is planning on launching a new product. It was thinking of launching in June of next year, but it believes that a rival is also considering launching a similar product around that time. The company is considering bringing the launch forward to the end of this year. This will cost an extra $3M to carry out and the company believes it will have a 0.8 probability of beating the rival to the market. If, however, they wait until June, the probability of beating the rival falls to 0.2. To make the decision easier, the company assumes that sales will be either high, medium or low. If the company launches before its rival, the probability of high sales is 0.6, the probability of medium sales is 0.25, and the probability of low sales is 0.15. If it launches after its rival, the probability of high sales falls to 0.35, medium sales rises to 0.45, and low sales rises to 0.2. The financial impacts are that high sales would be worth $9M, medium would be worth $5M and low, $1M. Using…A company is planning on launching a new product. It was thinking of launching in June of next year, but it believes that a rival is also considering launching a similar product around that time. The company is considering bringing the launch forward to the end of this year. This will cost an extra $3M to carry out and the company believes it will have a 0.8 probability of beating the rival to the market. If, however, they wait until June, the probability of beating the rival falls to 0.2. To make the decision easier, the company assumes that sales will be either high, medium or low. If the company beats its rival, the probability of high sales is 0.6, the probability of medium sales is 0.25, and the probability of low sales is 0.15. If it doesn’t beat its rival, the probability of high sales falls to 0.35, medium sales rises to 0.45, and low sales rises to 0.2. The financial impacts are that high sales would be worth $9M, medium would be worth $5M and low, $1M. What’s the optimal…A particular company is considering a $3 million research and development (R&D) project. Profit projections appear promising, but the president of the company is concerned because the probability that the R&D project will be successful is only 0.50. Secondly, the president knows that even if the project is successful, it will require that the company build a new production facility at a cost of $20 million in order to manufacture the product. If the facility is built, uncertainty remains about the demand and thus uncertainty about the profit that will be realized. Another option is that if the R&D project is successful, the company could sell the rights to the product for an estimated $23 million. Under this option, the company would not build the $20 million production facility. Consider the decision tree. Start R&D Project ($3 million) 1 Successful .5 Not Successful .5 Do Not Start R&D Project 3 Building Facility ($20 million) Sell Rights 4 What is the expected value of your strategy…
- A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of sixmonths. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as thefixed costs of the venture as shown below:Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost Probability100 000 0.3 K 7 0.5 K400 000 0.2 Page 5 of 80 000 0.6 K 5 0.5 K450 000 0.560 000 0.1 K500 000 0.31.0 1.0 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contributionA. A company wants to produce a souvenir with a marketing life of six months. Uncertainty surrounds the likely sales volume as well as the fixed costs of the venture as shown below: Sales units Probability Contrn. /unit Probability Fixed cost K7 K5 100 000 0.3 80 000 0.6 60 000 0.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 1.0 Determine the expected value of the contribution K400 000 K450 000 K500 000 Probability 0.2 0.5 0.3 1.03. The manager for a manufacturing company must recommend whether to construct a large plant, construct a small plant or do nothing. He estimates the long-run profits in $ as follows: State of Nature Alternative Good Average Poor Market($) Market ($) Market ($) Construct a 100,000 35,000 -60,000 large plant Construct a 75,000 25,000 -40,000 small plant Do nothing -5,000 0 0 Probability 25% 50% 25% Solve using: A. Expected Opportunity Loss B. Expected Value of Perfect Information
- An expensive piece of equipment is used in the masking operation for semiconductor manufacture.A capacitor in the equipment fails randomly. The capacitor costs $7.50, but if it burns out while the machine is in use, the production process must be halted. Here the replacement cost is estimated to be $150. Based on past experience, the lifetime distribution of the capacitor is estimated to be Number of Months Probability of of Service Failure 1 .08 2 .12 3 .16 4 .26 5 .22 6…A firm is considering a product launch. It will do so if the expectedtotal revenue is in excess of K1000. It decides to set the price at K10.Different levels of sales are predicted with probabilities of: 80 unitswith 0.15 probability; 100 units with 0.50 and 120 units with 0.35.Should the firm go ahead and launch the product?4. "Family Man," a construction company, is considering whether to bid on a contract for a new housing complex. The cost of preparing a bid USD 200,000. “Family Man" has a 0.8 probability of winning the contract, if it submits the bid. If "Family Man" wins the bid, it has to pay USD 2000,000 to be a project partner of the project. As per the usual practice, "Family Man" will then consider consulting a market research firm "Marquess" to conduct a market survey to forecast the demand of housing complex before beginning the construction. "Marquess" charges a fee of USD 150,000. Now, the demand scenario can be either "High demand" or "Low demand." "Family Man" gets a revenue of USD 5000,000 and USD 3000,000 in case of "High demand" and "Low demand" scenario, respectively. On the other hand, instead of construction, "Family Man" has a provision of selling its project rights to another project partner construction company at the price USD 3500,000. As per the historical data, "Marquess"…
- A salesperson uses three different airlines. The probabilities of switching from one airline to another in consecutive flights are shown below. If the last flight was on Delta, what is the probability that the next was on American? American Delta Southwest American 0.5 0.25 0.25 Delta 0.2 0.6 0.2 Southwest 0.3 0.3 0.4 A 0.5 B 0.2 C 0.25 D 0.6The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): Decision State of Nature Alternative Low Demand (S1) Medium Demand (S2) High Demand )S3) Manufacture, d(1) -20 40 100 Purchase, d(2) 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P s1= 0.35, P s2= 0.35, and P s3= 0.30 Use expected value to recommend a decision.The White Fish company is launching its new food for sale in supermarkets throughout Illinois. The sales department is convinced that its spicy fish dip will be a great success. The marketing department is considering an intensive advertising campaign. The advertising campaign will cost $1,900,000 and if successful (70% chance) produce $9,600,000 in added revenue. If the campaign is less successful (30% chance), the added revenue is estimated at only $4.200,000. If no advertising is used, the revenue is estimated at $6,500,000 if customers are receptive (with probability 0.75) and $3.200,000 with probability 0.25 if they are not receptive. a. Draw the associated decision tree. b. Roll Back Tree: Should White Fish invest in an intensive advertising campaign? c. Perform sensitivity analysis on probability of successful advertising campaign, which is now 0.7. Detemine the range of the probability of success for which the current decision is still the best choice. d. Perform sensitivity…