A firm is considering a product launch. It will do so if the expected total revenue is in excess of K1000. It decides to set the price at K10. Different levels of sales are predicted with probabilities of: 80 units with 0.15 probability; 100 units with 0.50 and 120 units with 0.35. Should the firm go ahead and launch the product?
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A firm is considering a product launch. It will do so if the expected
total revenue is in excess of K1000. It decides to set the price at K10.
Different levels of sales are predicted with probabilities of: 80 units
with 0.15 probability; 100 units with 0.50 and 120 units with 0.35.
Should the firm go ahead and launch the product?
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- A firm is considering a product launch. It will do so if the expected total revenue is in excess of K1000. It decides to set the price at K10. Different levels of sales are predicted with probabilities of: 80 units with 0.15 probability; 100 units with 0.50 and 120 units with 0.35. Should the firm go ahead and launch the product?A company is planning on launching a new product. It was thinking of launching in June of next year, but it believes that a rival is also considering launching a similar product around that time. The company is considering bringing the launch forward to the end of this year. This will cost an extra $3M to carry out and the company believes it will have a 0.8 probability of beating the rival to the market. If, however, they wait until June, the probability of beating the rival falls to 0.2. To make the decision easier, the company assumes that sales will be either high, medium or low. If the company launches before its rival, the probability of high sales is 0.6, the probability of medium sales is 0.25, and the probability of low sales is 0.15. If it launches after its rival, the probability of high sales falls to 0.35, medium sales rises to 0.45, and low sales rises to 0.2. The financial impacts are that high sales would be worth $9M, medium would be worth $5M and low, $1M. Using…11. Bakery Products is considering the introduction of a new line of pastries. In order to produce the new line, the bakery is considering either a major or a minor renovation of its current plant. Bill Wicker, head of operations, has developed the following conditional values table: Alternatives Favorable Market Unfavorable Market Major renovation $100,000 -$90,000Minor renovation $40,000 -$20,000 Do nothing $0 $0 Assume that the probability of a favorable market is equal to the probability of an unfavorable market.Part 2a) Choose the appropriate decision tree showing payoffs and probabilities.A.MinorFavorable40,000Unfavorable-20,000UnfavorableFavorableMajor100,000-90,000Do…
- Jeffrey Mogul is a Hollywood film producer, and he is currently evaluating a script by a new screenwriter and director, Betty Jo Thurston. Jeffrey knows that the probability of a film by a new director being a success is about .10 and that the probability it will flop is .90. The studio accounting department estimates that if this film is a hit, it will make $25 million in profit, whereas if it is a box office failure, it will lose $8 million. Jeffrey would like to hire noted film critic Dick Roper to read the script and assess its chances of success. Roper is generally able to correctly predict a successful film 70% of the time and correctly predict an unsuccessful film 80% of the time. Roper wants a fee of $1 million. Determine whether Roper should be hired, the strategy Mogul should follow if Roper is hired, and the expected value.MegaJoy Corp. is planning to open a new video arcade. It has narrowed the choices to a large or small arcade.(All costs and revenues in this problem are expressed in thousands of dollars.) The cost of a large arcade is $400, and the cost of a small arcade is $300.It has forecast that the demand will be low with probability 0.3 and high with probability 0.7.If MegaJoy builds a small arcade and the demand is high, then it expects revenues of $540. If MegaJoy builds a large arcade and the demand is low, then it has two alternatives: do nothing and earn revenue of $380, or reduce prices and earn revenues of $450. a. Draw a decision tree for this problem. b. Which choice yields the maximum expected money value?( Show calculation) c. A consulting firm has offered to perform reseach and forecast the demand fo MegaJoy. The firm will charge $8(thouthand) for its services, and it claims that the information will be 100% accurate. Should MegaJoy pay for the consulting services? Justify your…Harley, an ice-cream vendor, purchases each pint of ice-cream for $7 and sells for $20 each. At the end of the week, the unsold ice-cream can be salvaged for $2 each. From past experience, Harley has estimated the sales probabilities as below. What is the optimal number of pints Harley should purchase? Number of Ice-creams Sold, Probability 1 = 0.05, 2 = 0.1, 3 = 0.2 , 4 = 0.25, 5 = 0.15, 6 = 0.1, 7 = 0.08, 8 = 0.07
- Kroft Food Products is attempting to decide whether it should introduce a new line of salad dressings called Special Choices. The company can test market the salad dressings in selected geographic areas or bypass the test market and introduce the product nationally. The cost of the test market is $150,000. If the company conducts the test market, it must wait to see the results before deciding whether to introduce the salad dressings nationally. The probability of a positive test market result is estimated to be 0.6. Alternatively, the company can decide not to conduct the test market and go ahead and make the decision to introduce the dressings or not. If the salad dressings are introduced nationally and are a success, the company estimates that it will realize an annual profit of $1.6 million, whereas if the dressings fail, it will incur a loss of $700,000. The company believes the probability of success for the salad dressings is 0.50 if they are introduced without the test market.…Ellie Daniels has $200,000 and is considering three mutual funds for investment—a global fund, an index fund, and an Internet stock fund. During the first year of investment, Ellie estimates that there is a .70 probability that the market will go up and a .30 probability that the market will go down. Following are the returns on her $200,000 investment at the end of the year under each market condition: Market Conditions Fund Up Down Global $25,000 $ -8,000 Index 35,000 5,000 Internet 60,000 -35,000 At the end of the first year, Ellie will either reinvest the entire amount plus the return or sell and take the profit or loss. If she reinvests, she estimates that there is a .60 probability the market will go up and a .40 probability the market will go down. If Ellie reinvests in the global fund after it has gone up, her return on her initial $200,000 investment plus her $25,000 return after 1 year will be $45,000. If the market goes down, her loss will be $15,000. If she reinvests after…A firm must decide whether to construct a small, medium, or large stamping plant. A consultant’sreport indicates a .20 probability that demand will be low and an .80 probability that demand willbe high.If the firm builds a small facility and demand turns out to be low, the net present value will be$42 million. If demand turns out to be high, the firm can either subcontract and realize the net present value of $42 million or expand greatly for a net present value of $48 million.The firm could build a medium-size facility as a hedge: If demand turns out to be low, its netpresent value is estimated at $22 million; if demand turns out to be high, the firm could do nothingand realize a net present value of $46 million, or it could expand and realize a net present value of$50 million.If the firm builds a large facility and demand is low, the net present value will be – $20 million,whereas high demand will result in a net present value of $72 million.a. Analyze this problem using a decision…
- A manager wants to expand summer resort facilities now or wait at least another year. If he expands now and the upcoming summer season is good, the profit will be K246 000; and if not good, the loss will be K60 000. If he delays the expansion for at least a year and the upcoming summer season is good, the profit will be K120 000; if the season is poor, the profit will be K12 000. Required: Assuming the probability of a good summer in both cases is 1/3, use Bayesian analysis to aid the manager.Option 2: Raise prices by 50%. If this occurs, there is a 75% chance that an Entrepreneur will set up in competition this year. The board’s estimate of its annual profit in this situation would be as follows: 2A: With new competitor 2B: Without new competitor Probability Profit (Sh.) Probability Profit (Sh.) 0.25 150,000 0.5 200,000 0.5 120,000 0.3 150,000 0.25 80,000 0.2 100,000 Option 3: Expand the car park quickly at a cost of Sh. 50,000 keeping prices theSame. The profits are then estimated to be like 2B above, except that the probabilities would be 0.6, 0.3 and 0.1 respectively. Required: Draw a decision tree for the above problem, including all the relevant data. Using expected values analyze the decision tree and recommend the best option to the owners of the car park.a business owner is planning to strategies his company's growth, he can either buy , rent, or lease a new factory depending on how the business is doing. He was given the following payoff table based on whether the business is doing good or business is slow. Aletnative Business Doing Goood Business Slow Buy 90 -10 Rent 70 40 Lease 60 55 The probability of business doing good is 0.7 and the probability of slow business is 0.3. Using Lapace method, the strategy is: A. Do nothing B. Lease C. Rent D. Buy