An author is trying to choose between two publishing companies that are competing for the marketing rights to her new novel. Company A has offered the author $10,000 plus $2 per book sold. Company B has offered the author $2,000 plus $4 per book sold. The author believes that four levels of demand for the book are possible are: 1,000, 2,000, 3000 and 5000 books are sold. If the probabilities of each level of demand are as follows: Demand Probability 1000 0.31 2000 0.32 3000 0.25 5000 0.12 Construct the payoff table for each level of demand for company X and company Y. What are the expected monetary value (EMV) and expected opportunity loss (EOL)? Hence determine the best decision that this author should do.
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- An investor considers investing $17,000 in the stock market. He believes that the probability is 0.22 that the economy will improve, 0.42 that it will stay the same, and 0.36 that it will deteriorate. Further, if the economy improves, he expects his investment to grow to $23,000, but it can also go down to $11,000 if the economy deteriorates. If the economy stays the same, his investment will stay at $17,000. What is the expected value of his investment?In the game of blackjack as played in casinos in Las Vegas, Atlantic City, and Niagara Falls, as well as in many other cities, the dealer has the advantage. Most players do not play very well. As a result, the probability that the average player wins a hand is about 45%. Find the probability that an average player wins. a.Twice in 5 hands. b. Ten or more times in 25 hands. Arrivals 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Frequency 14 31 47 41 29 21 10 5 22. Kier, in The scenario, wants to determine how each of the 3 companies will decide on possible new investments. He was able to determine the new investment pay off for each of the three choices as well as the probability of the two types of market. If a company will launch product 1, it will gain 50,000 if the market is successful and lose 50,000 if the market is a failure. If a company will launch product 2, it will gain 25,000 if the market is successful and lose 25,000 if the market will fail. If a company decides not to launch any of the product, it will not be affected whether the market will succeed or fail. There is a 56% probability that the market will succeed and 44% probability that the market will fail. What will be the companies decision based on EMV? What is the decision of each company based on expected utility value?
- Two identically able agents are competing for a promotion. The promotion is awarded on the basis of output (whomever has the highest output, gets the promotion). Because there are only two workers competing for one prize, the losing prize=0 and the winning prize =P. The output for each agent is equal to his or her effort level times a productivity parameter (d). (i.e. Q2=dE1 , Q2=dE2). If the distribution of “relative luck” is uniform, the probability of winning the promotion for agent 1 will be a function of his effort (E1) and the effort level of Agent 2 (E2). The formula is given by...Prob(win)=0.5 + α(E1-E2), where α is a parameter that reflects uncertainty and errors in measurement. High measurement errors are associated with small values of α (think about this: if there are high measurement errors, then the level of an agent’s effort will have a smaller effect on his/her chances of winning). Using this information, please answer the following questions. Both workers have a…Suppose that there are two types of workers: high and low. Employers cannot distinguish between different types during an interview. Employers value high type at $200,000 and low type at $100,000. Employers are in a competitive market (i.e. zero profit applies). High type workers have a reservation wage of 140,000 and low type workers have a reservation wage of 80,000. Suppose that 50% of all workers are high type. The productivities, reservation wages, and the probabilities are common knowledge). What wage would the employers offer? Please explain the solution!A restaurant manager classifies customers as regular, occasional, or new, and finds that of all customers 50%, 40%, and 10%, respectively, fall into these categories. The manager found that wine was ordered by 70% of the regular customers, by 50% of the occasional customers, and by 30% of the new customers.a. What is the probability that a randomly chosen customer orders wine?b. If wine is ordered, what is the probability that the person ordering is a regular customer?c. If wine is ordered, what is the probability that the person ordering is an occasional customer?
- A Bank has foreclosed on a home mortgage and is selling the house at auction. There are two bidders for the house, Zeke and Heidi. The bank does not know the willingness to pay of these three bidders for the house, but on the basis of its previous experience, the bank believes that each of these bidders has a probability of 1/3 of valuing it at $800,000, a probability of 1/3 of valuing at $600,000, and a probability of 1/3 of valuing it at $300,000. The bank believes that these probabilities are independent among buyers. If the bank sells the house by means of a second- bidder, sealed-bid auction, what will be the bank’s expected revenue from the sale? The answer is 455, 556. Please show the steps in details thank you!JUST ANSWER SUBPART 2 There are two individuals, Individual A and Individual B. Individual A has an income (Y) of 500 million Rupiah per year. If Individual A is sick, he will lose 25% of his income. Meanwhile, Individual B has an income (Y) of 100 million Rupiah per year, and if Individual B is sick, he will lose 75% of his income. The probability of Individual A and Individual B being sick is the same, which is 10%. If the satisfaction level of Individual A and Individual B is determined by their income level, based on the following function U(Y)=ln Y, would Individual A and Individual B prefer not to have health insurance? Explain Faced with fair actuarially insurance, how much premium is offered to Individual A? Is the premium rate offered the same for Individual B? Explain with the support of graphic illustrations. The government decides to provide compulsory health insurance with a premium rate for Individual A and Individual B, which is 2% of the income of each individual. In…In any year, the weather can inflict storm damage to a home. From year to year, thedamage is random. Let Y denote the dollar value of damage in any given year.Suppose that in 95% of the years Y = 0, but in 5% of the years Y = 20,000.a. What is the mean of the damage in any year?b. What is the standard deviation of the damage in any year?c. Consider an “insurance pool” of 100 people who homes are sufficientlydispersed so that, in any year, the damage to different homes can be viewed asindependently distributed random variables. What is the probability that ?exceeds $2000?