A) What is the variance activity B? 2 decimal places B) What is the variance of activity F? 2 decimal places C) what is the probability the project can be completed? 4 decimals places only D) what is the probability the project will be 3 weeks late from the expected completion time ? 4 decimal places only. ABC Company is given a project that needs to be done within a given time. Thecustomer requested the project to meet 48 weeks completion date.Estimates of the optimistic, most probable, and pessimistic times (in wecks) for the activ-itics are as folows:TITTActhvityPredecessor OptinlsticMost ProbablePessimisticB18172013FEF G

Answered: A) What is the variance activity B? 2…

A) What is the variance activity B? 2 decimal places B) What is the variance of activity F? 2 decimal places C) what is the probability the project can be completed? 4 decimals places only

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter11: Simulation Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 84P: Software development is an inherently risky and uncertain process. For example, there are many...

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Software development is an inherently risky and uncertain process. For example, there are many examples of software that couldnt be finished by the scheduled release datebugs still remained and features werent ready. (Many people believe this was the case with Office 2007.) How might you simulate the development of a software product? What random inputs would be required? Which outputs would be of interest? Which measures of the probability distributions of these outputs would be most important?
Based on Babich (1992). Suppose that each week each of 300 families buys a gallon of orange juice from company A, B, or C. Let pA denote the probability that a gallon produced by company A is of unsatisfactory quality, and define pB and pC similarly for companies B and C. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is satisfactory, the next week they will purchase a gallon of juice from the same company. If the last gallon of juice purchased by a family is not satisfactory, the family will purchase a gallon from a competitor. Consider a week in which A families have purchased juice A, B families have purchased juice B, and C families have purchased juice C. Assume that families that switch brands during a period are allocated to the remaining brands in a manner that is proportional to the current market shares of the other brands. For example, if a customer switches from brand A, there is probability B/(B + C) that he will switch to brand B and probability C/(B + C) that he will switch to brand C. Suppose that the market is currently divided equally: 10,000 families for each of the three brands. a. After a year, what will the market share for each firm be? Assume pA = 0.10, pB = 0.15, and pC = 0.20. (Hint: You will need to use the RISKBINOMLAL function to see how many people switch from A and then use the RISKBENOMIAL function again to see how many switch from A to B and from A to C. However, if your model requires more RISKBINOMIAL functions than the number allowed in the academic version of @RISK, remember that you can instead use the BENOM.INV (or the old CRITBENOM) function to generate binomially distributed random numbers. This takes the form =BINOM.INV (ntrials, psuccess, RAND()).) b. Suppose a 1% increase in market share is worth 10,000 per week to company A. Company A believes that for a cost of 1 million per year it can cut the percentage of unsatisfactory juice cartons in half. Is this worthwhile? (Use the same values of pA, pB, and pC as in part a.)
Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.
A common decision is whether a company should buy equipment and produce a product in house or outsource production to another company. If sales volume is high enough, then by producing in house, the savings on unit costs will cover the fixed cost of the equipment. Suppose a company must make such a decision for a four-year time horizon, given the following data. Use simulation to estimate the probability that producing in house is better than outsourcing. If the company outsources production, it will have to purchase the product from the manufacturer for 25 per unit. This unit cost will remain constant for the next four years. The company will sell the product for 42 per unit. This price will remain constant for the next four years. If the company produces the product in house, it must buy a 500,000 machine that is depreciated on a straight-line basis over four years, and its cost of production will be 9 per unit. This unit cost will remain constant for the next four years. The demand in year 1 has a worst case of 10,000 units, a most likely case of 14,000 units, and a best case of 16,000 units. The average annual growth in demand for years 2-4 has a worst case of 7%, a most likely case of 15%, and a best case of 20%. Whatever this annual growth is, it will be the same in each of the years. The tax rate is 35%. Cash flows are discounted at 8% per year.
W. L. Brown, a direct marketer of womens clothing, must determine how many telephone operators to schedule during each part of the day. W. L. Brown estimates that the number of phone calls received each hour of a typical eight-hour shift can be described by the probability distribution in the file P10_33.xlsx. Each operator can handle 15 calls per hour and costs the company 20 per hour. Each phone call that is not handled is assumed to cost the company 6 in lost profit. Considering the options of employing 6, 8, 10, 12, 14, or 16 operators, use simulation to determine the number of operators that minimizes the expected hourly cost (labor costs plus lost profits).
BADLY NEED YOUR HELP PLEASE. 1.) True or false? Briefly explain. _____ Your firm has the opportunity to invest $20 million in a new project. The interest rate on the firm’s debt is 7% and the cost of equity is 14%. The cost of capital for the project depends on whether the firm finances the project with new debt or new equity. _____ You are thinking about investing in either stock A or stock B. Both stocks have an expected return of 12%, but stock A has a standard deviation of 25% annually and stock B has a standard deviation of 35% annually. You should invest in stock A since it is less risky. _____ Your firm currently has a debt-to-equity ratio of 10%: debt = $50 million and equity = $500 million (market values). The interest rate on the firm’s debt (rD) is 8% and the cost of equity (rE) is 13%. Since the cost of debt rD is lower than the cost of equity rE, the firm can lower its overall cost of capital by borrowing more. Ignore taxes.
A company is considering a new product launch. There is a 0.6 chance thatdemand for the product will be strong and a 0.4 chance that demand will beweak. Two strategies for the launch are possible: 1 has high promotion costs anda net cash outflow of K120 000 if demand proves to be strong, and if demandproves weak a net cash outflow of (K30 000) will result. Strategy 2 has lowpromotion costs and if demand is strong will generate a cash inflow of only K80000 but with weak demand a net cash inflow of K20 000. i. Draw a decision tree and advise which course of action generates thegreatest expected profit. ii. What is the maximum amount that should be paid for market research todetermine with certainty whether demand will be strong or weak?
You have recently won the super jackpot in the WashingtonState Lottery. On reading the fine print, you discover that you have the following twooptions:a. You will receive 31 annual payments of $250,000, with the first payment beingdelivered today. The income will be taxed at a rate of 28 percent. Taxes will bewithheld when the checks are issued.b. You will receive $530,000 now, and you will not have to pay taxes on this amount.In addition, beginning one year from today, you will receive $200,000 each yearfor 30 years. The cash flows from this annuity will be taxed at 28 percent.Using a discount rate of 7 percent, which option should you select?
We are thinking of filming the Don Harnett story. Weknow that if the film is a flop, we will lose $4 million, andif the film is a success, we will earn $15 million. Beforehand,we believe that there is a 10% chance that the Don Harnettstory will be a hit. Before filming, we have the option ofpaying the noted movie critic Roger Alert $1 million for hisview of the film. In the past, Alert has predicted 60% of allactual hits to be hits and 90% of all actual flops to be flops.We want to maximize our expected profits. Use a decisiontree to determine our best strategy. What is EVSI? What isEVPI?
At the beginning of each day, a patient in the hospital is classifed into one of the three conditions: good, fair or critical. At the beginning of the next day, the patient will either still be in the hospital and be in good, fair or critical condition or will be discharged in one of three conditions: improved, unimproved, or dead. The transistion probabilities for this situation are Good Fair Critical Good 0.65 0.20 0.05 Fair 0.50 0.30 0.12 Critical 0.51 0.25 0.20 Improved Unimproved Dead Good 0.06 0.03 0.01 Fair 0.03 0.02 0.03 Critical 0.01 0.01 0.02 For example a patient who begins the day in fair condition has a 12% chance of being in critical condition the next day and a 3%…
Consider a public project with the cost of 500. There are three individuals with the following benefits for the public good: v1=400, v2=200 and v3=0. Which of the following statement is false about the VCG (Vickrey-Clarke-Groves) mechanism? None of the options The budget deficit is 200 VCG mechanism is strategy-proof The tax for individual 3 is equal to 0 The tax for individual 1 is equal to 300
Please do not give solution in image formate thanku. 11-24 Using PERT, Ed Rose was able to determine that the expected project completion time for the construction of a pleasure yacht is 21 months and the project variance is 4. What is the probability that the project will be completed in 17 months or less? What is the probability that the project will be completed in 20 months or less? What is the probability that the project will be completed in 23 months or less? What is the probability that the project will be completed in 25 months or less?