An individual has a utility function U(W) = VW , where W is the level of wealth. They have been offered a gamble with a payout of £170 with a probability of 0.74 and a payout of £49.7 with a probability of 1-0.74. The Certainty Equivalent of this gamble is: Answer:
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- Five of ten people earn $0, four earn $100, and one loses $100. What is the expected payoff? What is the variance of the payoff?Exercise 3: Risky Investment Charlie has von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function u(x) = ln x and has wealth W = 250, 000. She is offered the opportunity to purchase a risky project for price P = 160, 000. 1 1 With probability p = 2 the project will be a success and return V > 160, 000. With probability 1 −p = 2 the project will fail and be worthless (i.e. it returns 0). For simplicity assume there is no interest between the time of the investment and the time of its return, that is r = 0 . How large must V be in order for Charlie to want to purchase the risky project? [Hint: What is Charlie’s expected utility is she does not purchase the project? What is Charlie’s expected utility is she purchases the project?]Find the Pratt - Arrow risk - aversion function for a utility function U(W) = log(0.5-W + 500), where W is the amount of wealth in €. Suppose that an investor's wealth is subject to outcomes -800 €, 500 €, 500 € and 1, 000 € which affect the initial amount of 2,500 € with probabilities of their occurrence 40%, 15%, 15% and 30%, respectively. a) Using the Taylor approximation to certainty equivalent, calculate an approximate expected utility value. b) Calculate the certain equivalent of the investor's uncertain wealth. Interpret.
- Dr. Gambles has a utility function given as U(w)=In(w). Due to the pandemic affecting his consulting business, Dr Gambles faces the prospect of having his wealth reduced to £2 or £75,000 or £100,000 with probabilities of 0.15, 0.25, and 0.60, respectively. Suppose insurance is available that will protect his wealth from this risk. How much would he be willing to pay for such insurance?Gary likes to gamble. Donna offers to bet him $31 on the outcome of a boat race. If Gary’s boat wins, Donna would give him $31. If Gary’s boat does not win, Gary would give her $31. Gary’s utility function is p1x^21+p2x^22, where p1 and p2 are the probabilities of events 1 and 2 and where x1 and x2 are his wealth if events 1 and 2 occur respectively. Gary’s total wealth is currently only $80 and he believes that the probability that he will win the race is 0.3. Which of the following is correct? (please submit the number corresponding to the correct answer). Taking the bet would reduce his expected utility. Taking the bet would leave his expected utility unchanged. Taking the bet would increase his expected utility. There is not enough information to determine whether taking the bet would increase or decrease his expected utility. The information given in the problem is self-contradictory.Let U(x)= x^(beta/2) denote an agent's utility function, where Beta > 0 is a parameter that defines the agent's attitude towards risk. Consider a gamble that pays a prize X = 10 with probability 0.2, a price X = 50 with probability 0.4 and a price X = 100 with probability 0.4. Compute the agentís expected utility for such gamble and find the value of Beta such that the agentis risk neutral? Suppose B= 1, what is the certainty equivalent of the gamble described above? What is the Arrow-Pratt measure of absolute risk aversion?
- You have a 50 percent chance of making $0, a 40 percent chance of making $100, and a 10 percent chance of losing $100. Calculate the expected value and variance of the payoff.Consider an individual who maximizes his expected utility with the following utility function: U(x) = logX He is faced with the lottery with the following probabilities and payoffs Probability Money 0.4 30 0.5 100 0.1 50 a. Find his expected utility b. Calculate the Certainty Equivalent c. Find the amount that the individual will be willing to pay in order to avoid the lottery (That is, the risk premium)Solve the following problem using an excel spreadsheet. A tobacco company isinterested in hiring a salesperson to promote smoking cigarettes in nightclubs. The position pays a flat salary of $50,000, regardless of sales levels. The firm has two applicants, Predictable Patty and Risky Ricky. Predictable Patty can produce with 100% certainty $100,000 a year in sales. Risky Ricky, on the other hand, can produce $300,000 with probability of 50%. But if he turns out to spend his time drinking and dancing in the nightclubs instead of making sales, he could actually cost the firm -$100,000 per year.a) During their first year on the job, what are the expected sales of Patty and Ricky? What are the firm’s expected profits on each worker?b) Now assume both workers are currently 25, and they will work until the retirement age of 65. The firm has the option to fire its new employee after one year based on sales, but can only hire one employee. Assume that it takes only one year to discover whether…
- Consider a lottery with three possible outcomes: $100 will be received with probability .1, $50 with probability .2, and $10 with probability .7. What is the expected value of the lottery? What is the variance of the outcomes of the lottery? What would a risk-neutral person pay to play the lottery?Consider a gamble/lottery in which a coin is tossed rapidly until a tail comes up. 2m rupee is given if the tail comes up at the mth toss. Let the individual be risk neutral, having u(x) = x where x is the amount of winning. Find the expected utility from the lottery.You are considering a $500,000 investment in the fast-food industry and have narrowed your choice to either a McDonald’s or a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise. McDonald’s indicates that, based on the location where you are proposing to open a new restaurant, there is a 25 percent probability that aggregate 10-year profits (net of the initial investment) will be $16 million, a 50 percent probability that profits will be $8 million, and a 25 percent probability that profits will be −$1.6 million. The aggregate 10-year profit projections (net of the initial investment) for a Penn Station East Coast Subs franchise is $48 million with a 2.5 percent probability, $8 million with a 95 percent probability, and −$48 million with a 2.5 percent probability. Considering both the risk and expected profitability of these two investment opportunities, which is the better investment? Explain carefully.
