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- A lawyer considering taking a case figures that there is a 40% chance of winning the case in court and earning his firm $300,000, a 50% chance of losing and costing his firm $150,000, and a 10% chance of settling out of court and bringing in $200,000. What is the expected payoff of the case for the firm?MacDonald Products, Inc., of Clarkson, New York,has the option of (a) proceeding immediately with production ofa new top-of-the-line stereo TV that has just completed prototypetesting or (b) having the value analysis team complete a study. IfEd Lusk, VP for operations, proceeds with the existing prototype(option a), the firm can expect sales to be 100,000 units at $550each, with a probability of .6, and a .4 probability of 75,000 at$550. If, however, he uses the value analysis team (option b), thefirm expects sales of 75,000 units at $750, with a probability of .7,and a .3 probability of 70,000 units at $750. Value analysis, at acost of $100,000, is only used in option b. Which option has thehighest expected monetary value (EMV)?A university planner is interested in determining the percentage of spring semester students who will attend summer school. She takes a pilot sample of 160 spring semester students discovering that 56 will return to summer school. - Using the result of the pilot study with a 0.95 probability, how large of a sample would have to be taken to provide a margin of error of 3% or less?
- In a recent poll, a random sample of adults in some country (18 years and older) was asked, "When you see an ad emphasizing that a product is "Made in our country," are you more likely to buy it, less likely to buy it, or neither more nor less likely to buy it?" The results of the survey, by age group, are presented in the following contingency table. Complete parts (a) through (c). Purchase likelihood 18 dash 3418-34 35 dash 4435-44 45 dash 5445-54 55 plus55+ Total Open in StatCrunch + Copy to Clipboard + Open in Excel + More likelyMore likely 233233 361361 381381 407407 13821382 Less likelyLess likely 2323 1010 2222 1212 6767 Neither more nor less likelyNeither more nor less likely 298298 209209 174174 126126 807807 Total 554554 580580 577577 545545 22562256 (a) What is the probability that a randomly selected individual is 35 to 4435 to 44 years…In a recent poll, a random sample of adults in some country (18 years and older) was asked, "When you see an ad emphasizing that a product is "Made in our country," are you more likely to buy it, less likely to buy it, or neither more nor less likely to buy it?" The results of the survey, by age group, are presented in the following contingency table. Complete parts (a) through (c). Purchase likelihood 18 dash 3418-34 35 dash 4435-44 45 dash 5445-54 55 plus55+ Total Open in StatCrunch + Copy to Clipboard + Open in Excel + More likelyMore likely 233233 361361 381381 407407 13821382 Less likelyLess likely 2323 1010 2222 1212 6767 Neither more nor less likelyNeither more nor less likely 298298 209209 174174 126126 807807 Total 554554 580580 577577 545545 22562256 (a) What is the probability that a randomly selected individual is 35 to 4435 to 44 years…Manipulate the data given to calculate any two probabilities.
- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent on the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): State of NatureLow Demand Medium Demand High DemandDecision Alternative s1 s2 s3Manufacture, d1 -20 40 100 Purchase, d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are 0.25, 0.35, and 0.40. Do not round your intermediate calculations. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|s1) = 0.10 P(U|s1) = 0.90P(F|s2) = 0.40 P(U|s2) = 0.60P(F|s3) = 0.60 P(U|s3) = 0.40…What is the transaction probability p22 value ?A credit card company randomly generates temporary five-digit pass codes for cardholders. Meghan is expecting her credit card to arrive in the mail. Determine, to the nearest percent, the percent probability that her pass code will be a five digit even number. (Numbers may repeat)
- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in ten thousand of pesos): state of nature state of nature state of nature Decision Alternative Low Demand S1 Medium DEmand S2 High demand S3 Manufacture, d1 -100 200 500 Purchase, d2 50 225 350 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1 ) = 0.35, P(s2 ) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P (F| S1) = 0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P (F| S2) = 0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P (F| S3) = 0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A. What is XY Manufacturing Company optimal decision strategy? B. What is the expected value of the market…The XY Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture acomponent part at its plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in ten thousand of pesos): State of Nature State of Nature State of Nature Decision Alternative Low DemandS_(1) Medium DemandS_(2) High DemandS_(3) Manufacture, d_(1) -100 200 500 Purchase, d_(2) 50 225 350 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. Use a decision tree to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether XY Manufacturing Company should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand. c. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to reporteither a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows:What is the probability that the market research report will be favorable?d. What…The XY Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture acomponent part at its plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in ten thousand of pesos): State of Nature State of Nature State of Nature Decision Alternative Low DemandS_(1) Medium DemandS_(2) High DemandS_(3) Manufacture, d_(1) -100 200 500 Purchase, d_(2) 50 225 350 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. c. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to reporteither a favorable (F) or unfavorable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows:What is the probability that the market research report will be favorable?
