Consider a situation in which the natural rate of unemployment, u is 5%, and the central bank adopls disinflation monetary policy to reduce the inflation rate from its current 9% to a target rate of 4%. According to the expectations-augmented Phillips Curve framework if the policy leads to hysteresis then the most likely outcome of this policy is O an inflation rate of 4% and u, is 5% O an expected inflation rate of 6% and u, is 5% an inflation rate of 4% and u, is 7%
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- The importance of using rather than saving your ammunition in the presence of the zero lower bound. Suppose inflation is described by the accelerations Phillips curve, and that output is determined by a simple IS curveInitially, the central bank is setting the nominal interest rate at a strictly positive level: i(0) > 0. Assume(a) Suppose the central bank keeps i constant at i (0). Sketch the behavior of inflation and output over time.(b) Suppose the central bank keeps i constant at i (0) until some time when bπ(t) < 0, and then permanently reduces i to zero. Sketch the behavior of inflation and output over time.(c) Suppose the central bank permanently reduces i to zero at t = 0. Sketch the behavior of inflation and output over time.(d) Explain your results intuitively.Consider the expectations adjusted Phillips’s curve and assume that expected inflation is given by πet = πt-1. Suppose that unemployment is initially equal to the natural rate and that π=10%. The central bank decides that inflation is too high and that, starting in year t, it will maintain the unemployment rate 1% point above the natural rate until the inflation rate has decreased to 2%. (a) What is the sacrifice ratio in this economy [Hint: the sacrifice ratio is the percentage of a year’s excess unemployment needed to reduce inflation by 1%. For a Philips curve given as πet − πt −1 = −α (ut − un ), the sacrifice ratio is 1/α]? (b) Compute the rate of inflation for year t, t+1, t+2, t+3, …, t+8. (c) For how many years must the central bank keep the unemployment rate above the natural rate of unemployment? Is the implied sacrifice ratio consistent with your answer to (a)?A. What assumptions did Thomas Sargent make when he claimed that inflation is always and everywhere a fiscal phenomenon?" B. Why is it appropriate in the book's short-term model for the author to use the Phillips Curve as an Aggregate Supply curve? Does it capture the working of the labor market as well as an AS curve based, say, on sticky wages? C. Provide an example of the book's short-run model being based on "microfoundations."
- Suppose that an economy has the Phillips curvep=p-1 - O.S(u - 0.06),a) What is the natural rate of unemployment?b) Graph the short-run and long-run relationships between inflation and unemployment.c) How much cyclical unemployment is necessary to reduce inflation by S percentage points?d) Using Okun's law, compute the sacrifice ratio e.e)Inflation is running at 10 percent. The Fed wants to reduce it to 5 percent. Give Iwoscenarios that will achieve that goal.Suppose the Federal Reserve announced that itWould pursue contractionary monetary policy toReduce the inflation rate. Would the followingConditions make the ensuing recession more or lessSevere? Explain.A. Wage contracts have short durations.B. There is little confidence in the Fed’s determinationTo reduce inflation.C. Expectations of inflation adjust quickly to actualInflationSuppose that an economy has a phillips curve π=π₋₁ -0.5(u-0.08) a) what is the natural rate of unemployement? b) how much cyclical unemployment is necessary to reduce inflation by 5% points? using okun's Law, compute the sacrifice ratio. c) inflation is runnuing 10%. the fed wants to reduce it to 5%. give two scenarios that will achieve that goal.
- Now, consider an economy in which the demand for money is of the formY(1 + it)for t = 0, 1, 2, · · · , where output is 150 and it denotes the nominal interest rate inperiod t. The REAL INTEREST RATE, denoted r, is constant and equal to 4%. In period0 and 1, the money supply is 100 and people expect that money supply wouldbe 100 forever. People have rational expectations. In period 2, the central banksurprises people and sets the money supply will grow at 2 percent forever, that is,M0 = 100, M1 = 100, M2 = (1.02)M1, M3 = (1.02)M2, and so on. A. Find the inflation rate, nominal interest rate, real money balance in period 1,and expected inflation in period 2, given the information available in period1, π1, i1,M1 / P1, and, E1π2. B. Find the inflation rate, nominal interest rate, real money balance in period 2,and expected inflation in period 3, given the information available in period 2. (π2, i2, M2 / P2 and E2π3.) C. Find the inflation rate, nominal interest rate, and real money…Now, consider an economy in which the demand for money is of the formY / (1 + it) for t = 0, 1, 2, · · · , where output is 150 and it denotes the nominal interest rate inperiod t. The real interest rate, denoted r, is constant and equal to 4%. In period0 and 1, the money supply is 100 and people expect that money supply wouldbe 100 forever. People have rational expectations. In period 2, the central banksurprises people and sets the money supply will grow at 2 percent forever, that is,M0 = 100, M1 = 100, M2 = (1.02)M1, M3 = (1.02)M2, and so on. A . Find the inflation rate, nominal interest rate, real money balance in period 1,and expected inflation in period 2, given the information available in period1, π1, i1, M1 / P1 and, E1π2. B . Find the inflation rate, nominal interest rate, real money balance in period 2, and expected inflation in period 3, given the information available in period 2, π2, i2, M2 / P2 and E2π3. C . Compare E1π2 and π2.Suppose a given country experienced low and stableinflation rates for quite some time, but then inflation picked up and over the past decade had beenrelatively high and quite unpredictable. Explain howthis new inflationary environment would affect thedemand for money according to portfolio theories ofmoney demand. What would happen if the governmentdecided to issue inflation-protected securities?
- Suppose two countries have identical aggregate demandcurves and potential levels of output, and g is the samein both countries. Assume that in 2019, both countriesare hit with the same negative supply shock. Given thetable of values below for inflation in each country, whatcan you say, if anything, about the credibility of eachcountry’s central bank? Explain your answer.Country A Country B2018 3.0% 3.0%2019 3.8% 5.5%2020 3.5% 5.0%2021 3.2% 4.3%2022 3.0% 3.8%Suppose that an economy has a constant nominal money supply, a constant level of real output Y = 1500, and a constant real interest rate r = 0.05, and it’s expected rate of inflation is 2%, i.e, πe = .02. Suppose that the income elasticity of money demand is ηY = 0.5 and the interest elasticity of demand ηi = –0.2. (a) Suppose that Y decreases to 1425, r remains constant at 0.05 and there is no change in the expected rate of inflation. What is the percentage change in the equilibrium price level? (b) Suppose that r increases to 0.06 and Y remains at 1500. Assuming that expected inflation remains at πe = .02, what is the percentage change in the equilibrium price level? (c) Suppose that r increases to 0.06. Assuming that πe = .02, what would real output have to be for the equilibrium price level to remain at its initial value?It is sometimes suggested that the Fed should try toachieve zero inflation. If we assume that velocity isconstant, does this zero-inflation goal require that therate of money growth equal zero? If yes, explain why.If no, explain what the rate of money growth shouldequal