The long-term financial forecast plays a crucial part in the company's long-term strategic plan. True or False True False
Q: Both time series and causal forecasting assume that the past relationship between demand and the…
A: Time series forecasting refers to the prediction of future events of a business. According to the…
Q: If the forecasted demand for the week of August 31 is 360 and α = 0.20, using exponential…
A: Sept. 7 forecast = Aug. 31 forecast + alpha (Aug. 31 demand- Aug. 31 forecast) Sept. 7 forecast =…
Q: Explain why forecasting devices such as moving averages, weighted moving averages, and exponential…
A: The average is going The prediction is increased and n is flat, but less susceptible. It provides an…
Q: obtained
A: The answer to this question is true.
Q: Sales are 30 000 units in September of 2021. The seasonal index for the month of September is 0.75.…
A: The computing method of seasonal adjustment was simple and easy and can lend to spreadsheets to…
Q: A company has the following demand history by seasons over a two-year period. The production planner…
A: In this question, the production planner would deseasonalize the data set, to make such…
Q: Forecasts affect planning but not the other management functions.
A: This do not require any introduction
Q: After using your forecasting model for six months, you decide to test it using MAD and a tracking…
A: Here we use formulae: Formulas: Tracking Signal (TS) is presented by:TS = RSFEMAD RSFE = Running…
Q: The following table shows the past two years of quarterly sales information. Assume that there are…
A:
Q: Quarterly boat sales over a two-year period are provided in the table below. Suppose we expect year…
A: Year 1: Average demand = 8+10+12+94=9.75 Year 2: Average demand = 8+11+14+104=10.75
Q: Describe and evaluate the method of forecasting based on a time series analysis when a trend is…
A: Forecasting is the practice of estimating the size of unknown future events and generating different…
Q: 9-The approach that uses the organization's current level of employment as the starting point for…
A: Every business enterprise is required to assess its staffing requirements over a specific time…
Q: Forecasting is the basis for all strategic and planning decisions in the supply chain. Select one:…
A: Find the answers below: The Correct answer is True.
Q: A company has an unbiased forecast for its demand. What does that mean?a. All forecast errors are…
A: Forecasting is the procedure of prediction making for the future grounded on past as well as present…
Q: Please show work
A: From the given data.
Q: The following are monthly actual and forecast demand levels for May through December for units of a…
A: Forecast Error = Actual Demand - Forecast Demand Absolute Error = Positive value of Forecast Error
Q: Why is a cross-sectional model of stock price returns likely to produce a more accurate forecast of…
A: How average returns fluctuate across various stocks or portfolios in a cross section.
Q: This type of analysis is most appropriate when the past is a good predictor of the future.
A: The provided statement is related to the time series analysis.
Q: The data below represents the quarterly changes in demand for a product over the next 3 months.…
A: Given data is
Q: A manufacturer of printed circuit boards uses exponentialsmoothing with trend to forecast monthly…
A: The image given in step 2 gives a detailed solution of the question that has been asked.
Q: In contrast to causal techniques, what are the fundamental assumptions made when time series…
A: One of the most fundamental assumptions of time series forecasting :
Q: You work for BMW as a planner. BMW is expecting to increase its annual sales for BMW- X5 in year…
A: BMW-X5 sales are increasing by 10% every quarter looking at as per the given data. let us clarify…
Q: Historical demand for a product is as follows. The sales manager wants to test various forecasting…
A: Calculate forecasting model using MAD, Mean Absolute Deviation The formula is: MAD … (2) Here, A…
Q: Demand and forecast for 5 months are given below: Month Demand Forecast 1 50 46 2 52 52 3…
A: Tracking Signal is used to determine the larger deviation (in both plus and minus) of Error in…
Q: A company's annual profits have a trend line given by Y = 10,000t + 5,000, where Y is the trend and…
A: Calculation of expected profit is as follows: In an additive model the time series is expressed as:…
Q: Evaluate what is the purpose of a forecast.
A: ‘Business forecasting’ incorporates making informed guesstimates about particular business metrics,…
Q: snip
A: Forecasting is a technique of estimating or predicting future trends with the help of surveyed data…
Q: expecting to increase its annual sales for BMW- X5 in year 2021 by 10 % compared to year 2020 annual…
A: The question is related to the sales for 2021 based in the sales of 2020 on quarterly basis. It is…
Q: 1. Business valuation is typically conducted when a company is looking to sell all ora portion of…
A: A business valuation is a process of determining the economic value of a business or a company. It…
Q: Consider the manager of a large department store. Among other responsibilities, she is in charge of…
A: Deliberate the administrator of a large section store. Amid other tasks, she is in responsibility of…
Q: Among these trend patterns, within the projection methods, choose the one that is most common when…
A: Secular refers to market activities that extend over long time horizons, and they do not get…
Q: A pizza chain wants to forecast the demand rate for each store for each hour in the day.What type of…
A: Forecasting is the tool or technique which uses the historical data as the inputs to make the…
Q: Forecasting is predicting the future; therefore, it is not concerned at all with the past.
A: This do not require any introduction
Q: What is the term for forecasts used for making day-to-day decisions about meeting demand?
A: Forecasting is a technique used to predict future events using quantitative and qualitative methods…
Q: A firm's short-term forecast helps top management in preparing a company budget. True or False True…
A: Short-term forecasts are mainly performed for tactical purposes that incorporate manufacturing,…
Q: Forecasts are generally wrong.a. Why are forecasts generally wrong?
A: Forecasting is used to predict future changes or demand patterns. Forecasting is the process of…
Q: Demand forecasting is the art and science of predicting future market demand. Select one: a. True b.…
A: Demand forecasting refers to predicting customer demands by using historical sales data. It…
Q: Through forecasting, organizations attempt to adapt to or change the future as predicted through…
A: This do not require any introduction
Q: Suppose that you are asked to forecast future stockprices of ABC Corporation, so you proceed to…
A: The accompanying information should be gathered to figure future stock costs of abc organization:-
Q: Coca Cola in Turkey manages its products' inventory at Shell gas stations, that is Coca Cola,…
A: The bullwhip effect is described as the distortion in demand that occurs due to an incorrect…
Q: Forecasting is a prediction rather than a reality
A: The term forecasting is a technique that uses the historical data as inputs to make the informed…
Q: ong-term forecast
A: A strategic planning that include decisions such as market trends, behaviour and shifts in…
Q: What advantages does adjusted exponential smoothing have over a linear trend line for forecasted…
A: Adjusted exponential smoothing is a forecasting methodology that employs measurable and historical…
Q: What type of pattern exists in the data? The time series plot shows an upward linear trend. The time…
A:
Q: As you can see in the following table, demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General…
A: The concept used here is forecasting with the Exponential Smoothening method.
Q: The errors in a particular forecast are as follows: 3, -3, 4, 0, -2. What is the tracking signal for…
A: Error = Actual demand - forecast Absolute Error = Positive value of error MAD = average of…
Q: The Victory Plus Mutual Fund of growth stocks has had the following average monthly price for the…
A: Note: - Since we can answer only up to three subparts we will answer the first three(1, 2, and 3)…
Trending now
This is a popular solution!
Step by step
Solved in 2 steps
- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_22.xlsx contains total monthly U.S. retail sales data. While holding out the final six months of observations for validation purposes, use the method of moving averages with a carefully chosen span to forecast U.S. retail sales in the next year. Comment on the performance of your model. What makes this time series more challenging to forecast?The file P13_02.xlsx contains five years of monthly data on sales (number of units sold) for a particular company. The company suspects that except for random noise, its sales are growing by a constant percentage each month and will continue to do so for at least the near future. a. Explain briefly whether the plot of the series visually supports the companys suspicion. b. By what percentage are sales increasing each month? c. What is the MAPE for the forecast model in part b? In words, what does it measure? Considering its magnitude, does the model seem to be doing a good job? d. In words, how does the model make forecasts for future months? Specifically, given the forecast value for the last month in the data set, what simple arithmetic could you use to obtain forecasts for the next few months?
- The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?Play Things is developing a new Lady Gaga doll. The company has made the following assumptions: The doll will sell for a random number of years from 1 to 10. Each of these 10 possibilities is equally likely. At the beginning of year 1, the potential market for the doll is two million. The potential market grows by an average of 4% per year. The company is 95% sure that the growth in the potential market during any year will be between 2.5% and 5.5%. It uses a normal distribution to model this. The company believes its share of the potential market during year 1 will be at worst 30%, most likely 50%, and at best 60%. It uses a triangular distribution to model this. The variable cost of producing a doll during year 1 has a triangular distribution with parameters 15, 17, and 20. The current selling price is 45. Each year, the variable cost of producing the doll will increase by an amount that is triangularly distributed with parameters 2.5%, 3%, and 3.5%. You can assume that once this change is generated, it will be the same for each year. You can also assume that the company will change its selling price by the same percentage each year. The fixed cost of developing the doll (which is incurred right away, at time 0) has a triangular distribution with parameters 5 million, 7.5 million, and 12 million. Right now there is one competitor in the market. During each year that begins with four or fewer competitors, there is a 25% chance that a new competitor will enter the market. Year t sales (for t 1) are determined as follows. Suppose that at the end of year t 1, n competitors are present (including Play Things). Then during year t, a fraction 0.9 0.1n of the company's loyal customers (last year's purchasers) will buy a doll from Play Things this year, and a fraction 0.2 0.04n of customers currently in the market ho did not purchase a doll last year will purchase a doll from Play Things this year. Adding these two provides the mean sales for this year. Then the actual sales this year is normally distributed with this mean and standard deviation equal to 7.5% of the mean. a. Use @RISK to estimate the expected NPV of this project. b. Use the percentiles in @ RISKs output to find an interval such that you are 95% certain that the companys actual NPV will be within this interval.
- The file P13_26.xlsx contains the monthly number of airline tickets sold by the CareFree Travel Agency. a. Create a time series chart of the data. Based on what you see, which of the exponential smoothing models do you think will provide the best forecasting model? Why? b. Use simple exponential smoothing to forecast these data, using a smoothing constant of 0.1. c. Repeat part b, but search for the smoothing constant that makes RMSE as small as possible. Does it make much of an improvement over the model in part b?The owner of a restaurant in Bloomington, Indiana, has recorded sales data for the past 19 years. He has also recorded data on potentially relevant variables. The data are listed in the file P13_17.xlsx. a. Estimate a simple regression equation involving annual sales (the dependent variable) and the size of the population residing within 10 miles of the restaurant (the explanatory variable). Interpret R-square for this regression. b. Add another explanatory variableannual advertising expendituresto the regression equation in part a. Estimate and interpret this expanded equation. How does the R-square value for this multiple regression equation compare to that of the simple regression equation estimated in part a? Explain any difference between the two R-square values. How can you use the adjusted R-squares for a comparison of the two equations? c. Add one more explanatory variable to the multiple regression equation estimated in part b. In particular, estimate and interpret the coefficients of a multiple regression equation that includes the previous years advertising expenditure. How does the inclusion of this third explanatory variable affect the R-square, compared to the corresponding values for the equation of part b? Explain any changes in this value. What does the adjusted R-square for the new equation tell you?The most naive forecast can is quite valuable in leading to an organization’s success because it is most widely understood by senior managers. True or False
- You are getting into a business and want to take a loan. The bank requires that you show them your projected profits. Develop calculate a forecast for the next five years starting 2024 the following data: First order is for 100,000 units at a selling price of 6kshs per unit. Both numbers are projected to increase by 20% yearly Renting the production facility at 500,000kshs a year for five years Variable manufacturing cost of 1.50kshs per unit with a projected increase of 10% yearly Administration cost of 25,000kshs per year with a likely increase of 5%annually Tax rate is at 36%a) Develop a five year financial forecast showing profits before and after tax. b) Determine If the Loan should be given based on the forecastDemand forecasting is the art and science of predicting future market demand.Select one:a. Trueb. FalseWhen a new business is started, or a patent idea needs funding, venture capitalists or investment bankers will want to see a business plan that includes forecast information related to profit and loss statements. What type of forecasting information do you think would the investors be looking for? Why?
