In Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis marginal utility functions are used to assist the decision maker to come to the "best" solution. Utility functions can be either risk prone, risk adverse or neutral. Describe the characteristics of these three types of utility functions.
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- The following profit payoff table was presented in Problem 1: The probabilities for the states of nature are P(s1) 5 0.65, P(s2) 5 0.15, and P(s3) 5 0.20.a. What is the optimal decision strategy if perfect information were available?Discuss how one is able to describe the riskiness of the decision-taker’s situation in ways which are intuitively appealing and analytically tractable.In a repeated decision for which the present value of the benefits of cheating are greater than the present value of the costs of cheating, A. deciding to cheat is a value-maximizing decision. B.deciding to cheat is never a value-maximizing decision. C.None of the above
- Safety and risk are subjective concepts which depend on the followingfactors, except a. voluntary vs. involuntary risk b. occasional vs. frequent accidentsc. delayed vs. immediate risk d. expected probability What is the answer ?The following payoff table provides profits based on various posible decision alternativesand various levels of demand at Kmart Print Shop. Alternatives Low High Alternative 1 10,000 30,000 Alternative 2 5,000 40,000 Alternative 3 -2,000 50,000 The probability of low demand is 0.4, whereas the probability of high demand is 0.6.What is the highest possible expected monetary value?Assume that two collectors, X and Y are in a first prize sealed bid auction for a batch of vintage comic books. X and Y have different valuations (V) for this batch of comic books e.g. VX And VB are between $2000 and $4000. Both collectors know their own V but does not know the V of the other collector. All they know is that the other collector’s V is a uniformly distributed number between $2000 and $4000. Assume risk neutrality for X and Y e.g. expected payoff for X is: (VX – bX)Pr(bX) and expected payoff for Y is (VY – bY)Pr(bY). These collectors will make their bids strategically. Show how X’s bidding strategy is bX = ½ Vx + 1 and Y’s is bY = ½ Vy +1 in a Nash equilibrium.
- You hold an oral, or English, auction among three bidders. You estimate that each bidder has a value of either $100 or $125 for the item, and you attach probabilities to each value of 50%. The winning bidder must pay a price equal to the second highest bid. The following table lists the eight possible combinations for bidder values. Each combination is equally likely to occur. On the following table, indicate the price paid by the winning bidder. Bidder 1 Value Bidder 2 Value Bidder 3 Value Probability Price ($) ($) ($) $100 $100 $100 0.125 $100$100$1250.125 $100$125$1000.125 $100$125$1250.125 $125$100$1000.125 $125$100$1250.125 $125$125$1000.125 $125$125$1250.125 The expected price paid is . Suppose that bidders 1 and 2 collude and would be willing to bid up to a maximum of their values, but the two bidders would not be willing to bid against each other. The probabilities of the combinations of bidders are still…You hold an oral, or English, auction among three bidders. You estimate that each bidder has a value of either $40 or $50 for the item, and you attach probabilities to each value of 50%. The winning bidder must pay a price equal to the second highest bid. The following table lists the eight possible combinations for bidder values. Each combination is equally likely to occur. On the following table, indicate the price paid by the winning bidder. Combination Number Bidder 1 Value Bidder 2 Value Bidder 3 Value Probability Price ($) ($) ($) 1 $40 $40 $40 0.125 2 $40 $40 $50 0.125 3 $40 $50 $40 0.125 4 $40 $50 $50 0.125 5 $50 $40 $40 0.125 6 $50 $40 $50 0.125 7 $50 $50 $40 0.125 8 $50 $50 $50 0.125 The expected price paid is . Suppose that bidders 1 and 2 collude and would be willing to bid up to a maximum of their values, but the two bidders would not be willing to bid against each…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. Use expected value to recommend a decision. b. Use EVPI to determine whether Gorman should attempt to obtain a better estimate of demand.
- The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A.Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 What is the expected value of the market research information?…The Gorman Manufacturing Company must decide whether to manufacture a component part at its Milan, Michigan, plant or purchase the component part from a supplier. The resulting profit is dependent upon the demand for the product. The following payoff table shows the projected profit (in thousands of dollars): state of nature low demand medium demnad high demand Decision alternative s1 s2 s3 manufacture d1 -20 40 100 purchase d2 10 45 70 The state-of-nature probabilities are P(s1) = 0.35, P(s2) = 0.35, and P(s3) = 0.30. a. A test market study of the potential demand for the product is expected to report either a favourable (F) or unfavourable (U) condition. The relevant conditional probabilities are as follows: P(F|S1)=0.10 P (U|S1)=0.90 P(F|S2)=0.40 P (U|S2)=0.60 P(F|S3)=0.60 P (U|S3)=0.40 A.Compute the probabilities by completing the table Sate of…