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Practical Management Science

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter7: Nonlinear Optimization Models

Section: Chapter Questions

Problem 63P

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Investment Manager: Works with the Investment Analyst to decide the number of stocks to be purchased, how much cash to hold and the timing of purchases.

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Seas Beginning sells clothing by mail order. An important question is when to strike a customer from the companys mailing list. At present, the company strikes a customer from its mailing list if a customer fails to order from six consecutive catalogs. The company wants to know whether striking a customer from its list after a customer fails to order from four consecutive catalogs results in a higher profit per customer. The following data are available: If a customer placed an order the last time she received a catalog, then there is a 20% chance she will order from the next catalog. If a customer last placed an order one catalog ago, there is a 16% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. If a customer last placed an order two catalogs ago, there is a 12% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. If a customer last placed an order three catalogs ago, there is an 8% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. If a customer last placed an order four catalogs ago, there is a 4% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. If a customer last placed an order five catalogs ago, there is a 2% chance she will order from the next catalog she receives. It costs 2 to send a catalog, and the average profit per order is 30. Assume a customer has just placed an order. To maximize expected profit per customer, would Seas Beginning make more money canceling such a customer after six nonorders or four nonorders?
It costs a pharmaceutical company 75,000 to produce a 1000-pound batch of a drug. The average yield from a batch is unknown but the best case is 90% yield (that is, 900 pounds of good drug will be produced), the most likely case is 85% yield, and the worst case is 70% yield. The annual demand for the drug is unknown, with the best case being 20,000 pounds, the most likely case 17,500 pounds, and the worst case 10,000 pounds. The drug sells for 125 per pound and leftover amounts of the drug can be sold for 30 per pound. To maximize annual expected profit, how many batches of the drug should the company produce? You can assume that it will produce the batches only once, before demand for the drug is known.
The eTech Company is a fairly recent entry in the electronic device area. The company competes with Apple. Samsung, and other well-known companies in the manufacturing and sales of personal handheld devices. Although eTech recognizes that it is a niche player and will likely remain so in the foreseeable future, it is trying to increase its current small market share in this huge competitive market. Jim Simons, VP of Production, and Catherine Dolans, VP of Marketing, have been discussing the possible addition of a new product to the companys current (rather limited) product line. The tentative name for this new product is ePlayerX. Jim and Catherine agree that the ePlayerX, which will feature a sleeker design and more memory, is necessary to compete successfully with the big boys, but they are also worried that the ePlayerX could cannibalize sales of their existing productsand that it could even detract from their bottom line. They must eventually decide how much to spend to develop and manufacture the ePlayerX and how aggressively to market it. Depending on these decisions, they must forecast demand for the ePlayerX, as well as sales for their existing products. They also realize that Apple. Samsung, and the other big players are not standing still. These competitors could introduce their own new products, which could have very negative effects on demand for the ePlayerX. The expected timeline for the ePlayerX is that development will take no more than a year to complete and that the product will be introduced in the market a year from now. Jim and Catherine are aware that there are lots of decisions to make and lots of uncertainties involved, but they need to start somewhere. To this end. Jim and Catherine have decided to base their decisions on a planning horizon of four years, including the development year. They realize that the personal handheld device market is very fluid, with updates to existing products occurring almost continuously. However, they believe they can include such considerations into their cost, revenue, and demand estimates, and that a four-year planning horizon makes sense. In addition, they have identified the following problem parameters. (In this first pass, all distinctions are binary: low-end or high-end, small-effect or large-effect, and so on.) In the absence of cannibalization, the sales of existing eTech products are expected to produce year I net revenues of 10 million, and the forecast of the annual increase in net revenues is 2%. The ePIayerX will be developed as either a low-end or a high-end product, with corresponding fixed development costs (1.5 million or 2.5 million), variable manufacturing costs ( 100 or 200). and selling prices (150 or 300). The fixed development cost is incurred now, at the beginning of year I, and the variable cost and selling price are assumed to remain constant throughout the planning horizon. The new product will be marketed either mildly aggressively or very aggressively, with corresponding costs. The costs of a mildly aggressive marketing campaign are 1.5 million in year 1 and 0.5 million annually in years 2 to 4. For a very aggressive campaign, these costs increase to 3.5 million and 1.5 million, respectively. (These marketing costs are not part of the variable cost mentioned in the previous bullet; they are separate.) Depending on whether the ePlayerX is a low-end or high-end produce the level of the ePlayerXs cannibalization rate of existing eTech products will be either low (10%) or high (20%). Each cannibalization rate affects only sales of existing products in years 2 to 4, not year I sales. For example, if the cannibalization rate is 10%, then sales of existing products in each of years 2 to 4 will be 10% below their projected values without cannibalization. A base case forecast of demand for the ePlayerX is that in its first year on the market, year 2, demand will be for 100,000 units, and then demand will increase by 5% annually in years 3 and 4. This base forecast is based on a low-end version of the ePlayerX and mildly aggressive marketing. It will be adjusted for a high-end will product, aggressive marketing, and competitor behavior. The adjustments with no competing product appear in Table 2.3. The adjustments with a competing product appear in Table 2.4. Each adjustment is to demand for the ePlayerX in each of years 2 to 4. For example, if the adjustment is 10%, then demand in each of years 2 to 4 will be 10% lower than it would have been in the base case. Demand and units sold are the samethat is, eTech will produce exactly what its customers demand so that no inventory or backorders will occur. Table 2.3 Demand Adjustments When No Competing Product Is Introduced Table 2.4 Demand Adjustments When a Competing Product Is Introduced Because Jim and Catherine are approaching the day when they will be sharing their plans with other company executives, they have asked you to prepare an Excel spreadsheet model that will answer the many what-if questions they expect to be asked. Specifically, they have asked you to do the following: You should enter all of the given data in an inputs section with clear labeling and appropriate number formatting. If you believe that any explanations are required, you can enter them in text boxes or cell comments. In this section and in the rest of the model, all monetary values (other than the variable cost and the selling price) should be expressed in millions of dollars, and all demands for the ePlayerX should be expressed in thousands of units. You should have a scenario section that contains a 0/1 variable for each of the binary options discussed here. For example, one of these should be 0 if the low-end product is chosen and it should be 1 if the high-end product is chosen. You should have a parameters section that contains the values of the various parameters listed in the case, depending on the values of the 0/1 variables in the previous bullet For example, the fixed development cost will be 1.5 million or 2.5 million depending on whether the 0/1 variable in the previous bullet is 0 or 1, and this can be calculated with a simple IF formula. You can decide how to implement the IF logic for the various parameters. You should have a cash flows section that calculates the annual cash flows for the four-year period. These cash flows include the net revenues from existing products, the marketing costs for ePlayerX, and the net revenues for sales of ePlayerX (To calculate these latter values, it will help to have a row for annual units sold of ePlayerX.) The cash flows should also include depreciation on the fixed development cost, calculated on a straight-line four-year basis (that is. 25% of the cost in each of the four years). Then, these annual revenues/costs should be summed for each year to get net cash flow before taxes, taxes should be calculated using a 32% tax rate, and taxes should be subtracted and depreciation should be added back in to get net cash flows after taxes. (The point is that depreciation is first subtracted, because it is not taxed, but then it is added back in after taxes have been calculated.) You should calculate the company's NPV for the four-year horizon using a discount rate of 10%. You can assume that the fixed development cost is incurred now. so that it is not discounted, and that all other costs and revenues are incurred at the ends of the respective years. You should accompany all of this with a line chart with three series: annual net revenues from existing products; annual marketing costs for ePlayerX; and annual net revenues from sales of ePlayerX. Once all of this is completed. Jim and Catherine will have a powerful tool for presentation purposes. By adjusting the 0/1 scenario variables, their audience will be able to see immediately, both numerically and graphically, the financial consequences of various scenarios.
Sapphire Farm is a business that trains and boards horses and educates young riders about horse care, nutrition, a product focusand riding. The farm provides both a learning and a fun environment for young equestrians and their families. It also hosts horse shows for beginning riders to help them build confidence in the show ring and to prepare them for local horse shows by running shows in accordance with the rules and regulations of the National Hunter Jumper Association. Feedback from the horseshow judges are provided to all riders so they can do better at their next meet. In addition, all warm-up and training areas are fenced and monitored by adults for the children's safety.According to the service-profit chain, the high-value service offered by Sapphire Farm LLC should lead to: A. congruent market response B. positive framing C. customer autonomy D. customer satisfaction E. a product focus
Clinton Financial Consultants is a firm of chartered accountants and financial consultants. Amongst its many activities , it specializes in arranging finance for new entrepreneurs. It helps them in evaluation, preparing viable reports, documentation, legal documentation and finally obtaining a loan from banking or financial institutions. The task involves preparing a proposal, checking the background of the client firm for its creditworthiness, preparing pro forma balance sheets and profit and loss accounts for the term of the loan, carrying out a need analysis, preparing loan agreement documents and finally obtaining the loan for the client. To facilitate better management, the firm uses PERT. It is currently processing the proposed loan for Alfa enterprises. The team assigned for this project has identified the following activities: Activity Description Immediate Predecessor A Start preparing proposal as per template - B Check credit worthiness of firm - C Create a rough draft…
Under Fundamental analysis the intrinsic value of the stock is meassured by analysing economic and financial factors. This method analysis the stock's real and fair market value. According to this analysis if the market price of the stock is lower than its fair market value then the stock is deemed to be underpriced, which means the stock price is going to rise in future. On the other hand if the fair market value of the stock is lower than its market price then it is assumed that the future prices of stock are going to decline. BASED ON THE STATEMENT ABOVE PLEASE DRAW THE GRAPH AND EXPLAIN IT ON U.S. SITUATION
Nice-Fit is a (fictional) small business producing outfits for costume parties and specialoccasions. Custom designs can be tailored to a customer’s request. Tom and Ann are theowners of the company and source all the fabric, design the outfits and make the costumesthemselves. Tom and Ann keep spreadsheets with information on the material purchased andcostumes made, but they find it difficult to keep track of their products, raw materials, andsales. The raw materials are supplied from a fabric company in India, and the production takesplace in a manufacturing company in China. The clothing is sold at local weekend markets,sold, or rented through costume hire shops, and sold at their physical store. Tom and Annreceive a small percentage of the sales and rentals of their costumes from the hire shops.They have no information on customers other than those who request custom designsdirectly from them. In 2020, the Covid-19 pandemic had a major impact on global economies,businesses and how we…
Lynn Jennings is the IT manager at Lazy Eddie, a chain that specializes in beanbag chairs and recliners. She asked Jan Lauten, a senior systems analyst, to review the large number of printed reports that are distributed to Lazy Eddie’s 35 store managers. “Jan, I just can’t believe that our people really read all of those reports,” Lynn said. “We constantly add new reports, and we never seem to eliminate the old ones. Sometimes I think all we’re doing is keeping the paper companies in business!” Jan replied, “I agree, but what can we do? The managers say they want the reports, but I always see them stacked on top of file cabinets. I’ve never seen anyone read a report.” “I have an idea,” Lynn said. “I want you to come up with a procedure that requires users to review and justify their information needs to see if they really use the reports we send them. You could design a form that asks if the information still is required, and why. Try to get users to decide if a report is worth the…
The XYZ Corporation has been engaged in the manufacture of electronic components for automobiles for the last 5 years. The company employs 350 employees and about 30 supervisors and managers. The increase in technology requires that employees be sent to training to cope with the increasing demand for updated new products consistent with the demand of local and foreign customers. The HR manager suggested that 3 of the managers and 8 supervisors be sent to the mother company in Japan for updates in technology on car electronics. The Vice President for Finance and the Operation Manager opposed the recommendation on the basis of cost-cutting and lack of personnel to handle the operations while they were away for 2 months. They suggested that technicians from the mother company be invited instead to handle the training in the Philippines. The cost of training by the mother company would double the cost of training as they are paid higher allowances and salaries that will be…
How do non-linear system models differ from linear models, and what are the challenges associated with analyzing and controlling them?
Millie wants to install a new carpet in the living room of her house. She calculated the square footage of the room and then multiplied it by a set cost factor to estimate the cost. This is an example of_________ Group of answer choices Parametric estimating Three-point estimating Bottom-up estimating Analogous estimating
You have an idea for a new web service that offers customized workouts for subscribers. Build a spreadsheet to calculate 1) the number of new customers each month and 2) the total customer base (cumulative number of customers signed up) each month. Mimic what we did in the class to project the subscription volumes for 60 months under the following sets of assumptions. a)Total market potential is 1,000,000 customers. Each month, you sign up 2% of customers in the market that have not yet signed up. b)Total market potential is initially 1,000,000 customers, but grows at 1% per month. Each month, you sign up 2% of customers in the market that have not yet signed up. Use the graph wizard to make a graph comparing total customer base under each of the two scenarios. Which type of graph is appropriate?

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