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1. Calculate a forecast of the above demand using a three-month and a five-month moving average in a table. 2. In your table, include a column for computing the forecast errors for each of the moving average forecasts. Compute the error per period and then be sure to include the cumulative forecast error for each. You can find help with this in the instructor video in Content for the week. 3. Plot these forecasts AND the original demand data on graph paper or spreadsheet. Use a key to distinguish among your three lines.

1. Calculate a forecast of the above demand using a three-month and a five-month moving average in a table. 2. In your table, include a column for computing the forecast errors for each of the moving average forecasts. Compute the error per period and then be sure to include the cumulative forecast error for each. You can find help with this in the instructor video in Content for the week. 3. Plot these forecasts AND the original demand data on graph paper or spreadsheet. Use a key to distinguish among your three lines.

Practical Management Science
Practical Management Science
6th Edition
ISBN:9781337406659
Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.
Chapter2: Introduction To Spreadsheet Modeling
Section: Chapter Questions
Problem 20P: Julie James is opening a lemonade stand. She believes the fixed cost per week of running the stand...
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Greenfield's Tannery supplies leather to the South Fork Boot Company on a monthly basis for manufacturing western style boots. South Fork does not keep a large stock of inventory on hand, thus the tannery must provide sufficient leather to meet demand on a timely basis. Furthermore, the quality of the leather must be of the highest grade. The demand for western boots is lowest in the late winter, increases during the summer and fall and reaches its peak during the holiday season. The demand for leather follows the same general pattern. Greenfield's Tannery has experienced the following monthly demand for the past fourteen months. Period Month Demand (in square yards) 1 January 1300 February 1100 March 900 April 1600 5 May 1500 June 2100 7 July 2400 August 2000 9 September 2900 10 October 3200 11 November 3700 12 December 2400 13 January 1600 14 February 1000 2. 3. 4)
Transcribed Image Text:Greenfield's Tannery supplies leather to the South Fork Boot Company on a monthly basis for manufacturing western style boots. South Fork does not keep a large stock of inventory on hand, thus the tannery must provide sufficient leather to meet demand on a timely basis. Furthermore, the quality of the leather must be of the highest grade. The demand for western boots is lowest in the late winter, increases during the summer and fall and reaches its peak during the holiday season. The demand for leather follows the same general pattern. Greenfield's Tannery has experienced the following monthly demand for the past fourteen months. Period Month Demand (in square yards) 1 January 1300 February 1100 March 900 April 1600 5 May 1500 June 2100 7 July 2400 August 2000 9 September 2900 10 October 3200 11 November 3700 12 December 2400 13 January 1600 14 February 1000 2. 3. 4)
You can complete everything in Excel if you wish. For the narrative answers, you can include these in empty cells. If you know how to add an extra worksheet, you can add your answers on a new worksheet. Please include your name at the top of your submission. Answer Questions 1-5 below. Be sure to watch the video on how to complete your forecasting problem, in the content module. Everything needs to be typed including the graph. 1. Calculate a forecast of the above demand using a three-month and a five-month moving average in a table. 2. In your table, include a column for computing the forecast errors for each of the moving average forecasts. Compute the error per period and then be sure to include the cumulative forecast error for each. You can find help with this in the instructor video in Content for the week. 3. Plot these forecasts AND the original demand data on graph paper or spreadsheet. Use a key to distinguish among your three lines. 4. Describe the results of your two graphs as they compare to the movement of demand. Be specific. 5. Choosing between the three-period and the five-period forecasts, which length of averaging would you use as a purchasing manager of Greenfield's Tannery? Be sure to factor in the cumulative forecast errors in your answer. Also, make sure you include some rationale about why you are picking the method you do for this particular business. So for example, does picking one method over the other have any impact on how much inventory they will have on hand to meet customer demand? What happens when the demand drops? Which method better supports that? Just saying the shorter period reacts more quickly to demand and the longer period smooths things out is not sufficient. Understanding and relaying how the choice impacts inventory levels and inventory costs to the business during slack and peak times, is the competency being assessed. You can type your narrative answers in empty Excel cells or use a separate Word document for them.
Transcribed Image Text:You can complete everything in Excel if you wish. For the narrative answers, you can include these in empty cells. If you know how to add an extra worksheet, you can add your answers on a new worksheet. Please include your name at the top of your submission. Answer Questions 1-5 below. Be sure to watch the video on how to complete your forecasting problem, in the content module. Everything needs to be typed including the graph. 1. Calculate a forecast of the above demand using a three-month and a five-month moving average in a table. 2. In your table, include a column for computing the forecast errors for each of the moving average forecasts. Compute the error per period and then be sure to include the cumulative forecast error for each. You can find help with this in the instructor video in Content for the week. 3. Plot these forecasts AND the original demand data on graph paper or spreadsheet. Use a key to distinguish among your three lines. 4. Describe the results of your two graphs as they compare to the movement of demand. Be specific. 5. Choosing between the three-period and the five-period forecasts, which length of averaging would you use as a purchasing manager of Greenfield's Tannery? Be sure to factor in the cumulative forecast errors in your answer. Also, make sure you include some rationale about why you are picking the method you do for this particular business. So for example, does picking one method over the other have any impact on how much inventory they will have on hand to meet customer demand? What happens when the demand drops? Which method better supports that? Just saying the shorter period reacts more quickly to demand and the longer period smooths things out is not sufficient. Understanding and relaying how the choice impacts inventory levels and inventory costs to the business during slack and peak times, is the competency being assessed. You can type your narrative answers in empty Excel cells or use a separate Word document for them.
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