Payoff Table Decision Alternatives Demand Low Medium High Small, d1 400 500 600 Medium, d2 100 600 800 Large, d3 -300 400 1200 1). If nothing is known about the demand probabilities, what are the recommended decision using the Maximax (optimistic), Maximin (pessimistic) and Equally Likely? 2). If P(low) = 0.20, P(medium) = 0.35, and P(high) = 0.45. What is the recommended decision using the expected monetary value approach? 3). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?

Payoff Table Decision Alternatives Demand Low Medium High Small, d1 400 500 600 Medium, d2 100 600 800 Large, d3 -300 400 1200 1). If nothing is known about the demand probabilities, what are the recommended decision using the Maximax (optimistic), Maximin (pessimistic) and Equally Likely? 2). If P(low) = 0.20, P(medium) = 0.35, and P(high) = 0.45. What is the recommended decision using the expected monetary value approach? 3). What is the expected value of perfect information (EVPI)?

Practical Management Science

6th Edition

ISBN:9781337406659

Author:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Publisher:WINSTON, Wayne L.

Chapter9: Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Section9.4: The Precision Tree Add-in

Problem 9P

See similar textbooks

Similar questions

eferring to the pay-off table, determine which alternative would be chosen under each of these strategies: Possible future demand in OMR Alternative Low Medium High A 12 15 15 B 10 13 16 C 6 8 19 For the data in above table, assume probabilities of: (low demand) = 0.15, (medium demand) = 0.55, and (high demand) = 0.3. Using a Minimax regret approach the value of the lowest regret is. (Write the number only)
Leah Johnson, director of Urgent Care of Brookline, wants to increase capacity to provide low-cost flu shots but must decide whether to do so by hiring another full-time nurse or by using part-time nurses. The table below shows the expected costs of the two options for three possible demand levels: States of Nature (demand) Alternatives Low Medium High Hire full−time $320 $480 $700 Hire part−time $0 $340 $800 Probabilities 0.20 0.55 0.25 Part 2 a) The alternative with the least expected cost is ▼ a. Hire full-time b. Hire part-time The expected price of this alternative is $_______ (enter your answer as a whole number). Part 4 b) The appropriate decision tree for Leah Johnson is presented in Figure____?
A Las Vegas supermarket bakery must decide how many wedding cakes to prepare for the upcoming weekend. Cakes cost $33 each to make, and they sell for $60 each. Unsold cakes are reducedto half-price on Monday, and typically one-third of those are sold. Any that remain are donated toa nearby senior center. Analysis of recent demand resulted in the following table:Demand 0 1 2 3Probability .15 .35 .30 .20How many cakes should be prepared to maximize expected profit?a. Use the ratio method.b. Use the tabular method
an Shields Communications, Inc., a cellular communications provider based in Michigan, charges $86 per month for an all you can talk service plan. The company plans to increase marketing expenditure next year, but wants to determine the current CLV before making this decision. Variable costs before marketing are $28 per account per month and monthly retention expenditures are $12 per account. Ian Shields Communication's annual attrition rate is 17%, with an annual discount rate of 15%.
Daniel Grady is thefinancial advisor for a number of professional athletes.An analysis of the long-term goals for many of theseathletes has resulted in a recommendation to purchasestocks with some of the income that they have set aside for investments. Five stocks have been identified as hav-ing very favorable expectations for future performance. Although the expected return is important in theseinvestments, the risk, as measured by the beta of the stock, is also important. (A high value of beta indicatesthat the stock has a relatively high risk.) The expectedreturn and the beta for five stocks are as follows: Stock 1 2 3 4 5 Expected Return (%) 11.0 9.0 6.5 15.0 13.0 Beta 1.20 0.85 0.55 1.40 1.25 Daniel would like to minimize the beta of the stockportfolio (calculated using a weighted average ofthe amounts put into the different stocks) whilemaintaining an expected return of at least 11%.Since future conditions may change, Daniel hasdecided that no more than 35% of the…
Suppose that new uses are discovered for corn. Assume that nothing else haschanged. What do you expect to happen to the price of soybeans. Explain with a supply and demand diagram for soybeans. For a bonus point, what is the real-world basis for this question?
Use a single excel file with formulas within answer cells. Show formulas for how to get the answer. The ticketing office at a professional sports venue has noticed that ticket sales seem to fluctuate. The manager wants to introduce the strategy of demand-pricing in order to maximize attendance and therefor revenue. Based on historical sales, manager wonders if there is a connection between winning percentage (in decimal form) of the team and attendance (seats). Attendance (seats) Winning Percentage (decimal form) 78,000 0.6 89,000 0.67 93,000 0.7 59,000 0.5 65,000 0.55 97,000 0.9 86,000 0.6 75,000 0.55 91,000 0.8 61,000 0.52 What is the forecasted attendance if winning percentage is 0.67?
6. Laura is trying to decide whether to sell her knitted hats on Etsy, at a holiday bazaar, or in a local boutique. Demand could be 0 hats/month, 10 hats/month, or 20 hats/month. Given the payoff matrix below, what is her decision under equally likely? Demand = 0 Demand = 10 Demand = 20 Etsy -$70 $80 $230 Bazaar -$60 $90 $240 Boutique -$80 $70 $220 Select one: a. Etsy and boutique. b. Etsy only. c. Etsy and bazaar. d. Bazaar and boutique. e. All 3 are equally good. f. Bazaar only. g. None of them are good options. h. Boutique only.
Lovely Apparel must decide how many sets of assorted summer wear to order for its three stores. Information on pricing, sales, and inventory costs has led to the following payoff table, in thousands. Demand Order Size Low Medium High 1 set 12 15 15 2 sets 9 25 35 3 sets 6 35 60 What decision should be made by the optimist? What decision should be made by the conservative? What decision should be made using minimax regret? NOTE: SHOW COMPLETE STEP-BY-STEP SOLUTION
Evaluate the statistical ROP when you have probabilistic demand and constant lead time,with constant demand and probabilistic lead time, and with demand and lead time bothprobabilistic.
Downtown Health Clinic needs to order influenza vaccinesfor the next flu season. The Clinic charges its patients $15.00per vaccination and each dose of vaccine costs the clinic$4.00 to purchase. The Center for Disease Control has a longstanding policy of buying back unused vaccines for $1.00 perdose. The Clinic estimates the following probability distribu-tion for the season’s demand:Demand Probability2,000 0.053,000 0.204,000 0.255,000 0.406,000 0.10 a. How many vaccines should the Clinic order to maximizeits expected profit?b. The Clinic is trying to determine if they should participatein a new Federal program in which the cost of each dose isreduced to $2.00. However, to participate in the program,they can charge no more than $10.00 per vaccine. Onstrictly a profit maximizing basis, should the Clinic agreeto participate?
A well-known plastic mould and die manufacturer in Toronto intends to expand internationally in anticipation of strong demand and expansion in the plastic die manufacturing sector. use the table beneath. Using the Maximax, Maximin, and equally likely conditions, assist the business in making the best option in an unclear situation. 0.5 for a highly favourable condition, 0.2 for an average demand, and 0.3 for an unfavourable state are the probabilities linked with the states of nature.a) Choose the course of action that will give Andrew the highest predicted monetary value (EMV).b) Determine the anticipated value of perfect information (EVPI).