A bottle company ALPHA, is considering creating a new bottle of 0.25 lt. To decide whether to invest in this projector not, they performed market research that costed €5,000. The results indicated two possible scenarios that depend on the competitor's reaction to create a similar product and on the percentage of the faithful customers of ALPHA. ScenarioA has a 45% chanceto be realized, while scenarioB has a probability of 55%. For the project's realization the company must purchase specialmachinery that cost €80,000, while transportation and installation costs amount to €2,000. The useful life of the project is two years, and the machinery can be sold at the end of the useful life for €30,000.Table 1 presents the pertinenteconomic data. At the end of the second year the working capital is

Microeconomic Theory
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Chapter7: Uncertainty
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A bottle company ALPHA, is considering creating a new bottle of 0.25 lt. To decide whether to invest in this projector not, they performed market research that costed

€5,000. The results indicated two possible scenarios that depend on the competitor's reaction to create a similar product and on the percentage of the faithful customers of ALPHA. ScenarioA has a 45% chanceto be realized, while scenarioB has a probability of 55%. For the project's realization the company must purchase specialmachinery that cost €80,000, while transportation and installation costs amount to €2,000. The useful life of the project is two years, and the machinery can be sold at the end of the useful life for €30,000.Table 1 presents the pertinenteconomic data. At the end of the second year the working capital is going to be recaptured. The tax rate is 25%, the weighted average cost of capital is 10% and the company fully depreciates fixed assets for tax purposes, using the straight-line depreciation method.

 

Table 1: Pertinent economic data

 

Year 1

Year 2

Scenario  Α

Scenario  Β

Scenario  Α

Scenario  Β

Sales in pieces

150,000

200,000

200,000

250,000

Variable costper unit of products

 

0.8

 

1

 

1

 

1.2

Sale price per unit of products

1.5

1.7

1.8

2

Administrative &marketing expenses

 

20,000

 

25,000

 

25,000

 

30,000

Working Capital

15,000

15,000

17,000

17,000

Questions:

  1. Calculate the expected net cash flows for each one of the two years. 
  2. Calculate and comment the standard deviations and the coefficient of variations of the NCFs of each year. What do they mean and what do they imply? 
  3. Should ALPHA proceed with the new bottle project based on the NPV evaluation approach? 
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please check the calculations. i think they are wrong

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