The following are monthly actual and forecast demand levels for May through December for units of a product manufactured by the D. Bishop Company in Des Moines: ETT Forecast Demand 104 Month Actual Demand 100 May June July August September 80 100 108 101 112 101 105 100 October 106 102 November 130 102 December 125 107 For the given forecast, the tracking signal = MADS (round your response to two decimal places).
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Can you assit me with this problem 12 by showing me the process step by step. I prefer it not be in the form of an excel sheet because it is hard to follow along. Thank you kindly
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- Under what conditions might a firm use multiple forecasting methods?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. Is Ben Gibson acting legally? Is he acting ethically? Why or why not?Scenario 3 Ben Gibson, the purchasing manager at Coastal Products, was reviewing purchasing expenditures for packaging materials with Jeff Joyner. Ben was particularly disturbed about the amount spent on corrugated boxes purchased from Southeastern Corrugated. Ben said, I dont like the salesman from that company. He comes around here acting like he owns the place. He loves to tell us about his fancy car, house, and vacations. It seems to me he must be making too much money off of us! Jeff responded that he heard Southeastern Corrugated was going to ask for a price increase to cover the rising costs of raw material paper stock. Jeff further stated that Southeastern would probably ask for more than what was justified simply from rising paper stock costs. After the meeting, Ben decided he had heard enough. After all, he prided himself on being a results-oriented manager. There was no way he was going to allow that salesman to keep taking advantage of Coastal Products. Ben called Jeff and told him it was time to rebid the corrugated contract before Southeastern came in with a price increase request. Who did Jeff know that might be interested in the business? Jeff replied he had several companies in mind to include in the bidding process. These companies would surely come in at a lower price, partly because they used lower-grade boxes that would probably work well enough in Coastal Products process. Jeff also explained that these suppliers were not serious contenders for the business. Their purpose was to create competition with the bids. Ben told Jeff to make sure that Southeastern was well aware that these new suppliers were bidding on the contract. He also said to make sure the suppliers knew that price was going to be the determining factor in this quote, because he considered corrugated boxes to be a standard industry item. As the Marketing Manager for Southeastern Corrugated, what would you do upon receiving the request for quotation from Coastal Products?
- The Baker Company wants to develop a budget to predict how overhead costs vary with activity levels. Management is trying to decide whether direct labor hours (DLH) or units produced is the better measure of activity for the firm. Monthly data for the preceding 24 months appear in the file P13_40.xlsx. Use regression analysis to determine which measure, DLH or Units (or both), should be used for the budget. How would the regression equation be used to obtain the budget for the firms overhead costs?The file P13_42.xlsx contains monthly data on consumer revolving credit (in millions of dollars) through credit unions. a. Use these data to forecast consumer revolving credit through credit unions for the next 12 months. Do it in two ways. First, fit an exponential trend to the series. Second, use Holts method with optimized smoothing constants. b. Which of these two methods appears to provide the best forecasts? Answer by comparing their MAPE values.The following monthly sales (in thousands of AUS dollars) of chocolate boxes have been recorded for January, February, March, and April, respectively: 8, 8, 5, 9. Focusing on sales forecast accuracy for the month of April only, explain which of the following forecasting method would you recommend: the Naïve method, the Average method, or the Simple exponential smoothing method (assuming alpha=0.8 and initial state of 7)?
- The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 Demand 7 9 6 10 12 7 12 12 9 9 8 Part 2 Using exponential smoothing with α = 0.30 and a forecast for year 1 of 6.0, provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place). Part 3 Provide the forecast from periods 2 through 12 using the naive approach (enter your responses as whole numbers).The monthly demand for units manufactured by the Acme Rocket Company has been as follows: a. Use the exponential smoothing method to forecast the number of units for June to January. Theinitial forecast for May was 105 units; a = 0.2.b. Calculate the absolute percentage error for each month from June through December and theMAD and MAPE of forecast error as of the end of December.c. Calculate the tracking signal as of the end of December. What can you say about the performanceof your forecasting method?Weekly income for Quiet Mental Breakdown, an online psychology firm, is provided below. Determine, on the basis of minimizing the mean square error, whether a three-period or four-period simple moving average gives a better forecast. Week Income 1 980 2 1040 3 1120 4 1050 5 960 6 990 7 1030 8 1260 9 1240 10 1100 Group of answer choices Both the four-period & three-period simple moving averages have the same forecast accuracy in terms of their MSE There is not enough information to determine the answer The four-period simple moving averages gives a better forecast because it has the smallest MSE The three-period simple moving average gives a better forecast because it has the smallest MSE
- Given the following data for demand at the XYZ Company, calculate the monthly forecast for 2003 using a 3-month moving average. Calculate the Forecast, Error, MAD (mean absolute percentage error), Bias and the TS (tracking signal) . Give the steps of the calculations in detailsUsing the photo uploaded, answer the following 1. Using a numerical example, demonstrate to Mr. John how he can use the manual trend projection method of forecasting to forecast demand for the next two years.Sales of tablet computers at Ted Glickman’s electron-ics store in Washington, D.C., over the past 10 weeks are shown in the table below: a) Forecast demand for each week, including week 10, usingexponential smoothing with a 5 .5 (initial forecast 5 20). b) Compute the MAD.c) Compute the tracking signal.